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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2020年01月25日 02:34:56
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Downturn, start up-The effects of recessions on entrepreneurs and managers run deep衰退与创业;;经济衰退对企业家和经理人的影响在加剧THE list of famous companies founded during economic downturns is long and varied. It includes General Motors, ATamp;T, Disney and MTV, all founded during recessions. A study found that over half of Fortune 500 companies got their start during a downturn or a bear market. A recession, it seems, may not be an entirely bad time to start a company. Indeed, busts (and booms) cast a longer shadow on the business landscape than is commonly realised, because they influence both the rate of business formation and how existing firms are run.在经济衰退期间创办的知名企业数量很多,且各式各样的行业都有。通用汽车(General Motors)、美国电话电报公司(ATamp;T)、迪士尼(Disney)和音乐电视(MTV,全球两大音乐台之一)等都是在经济衰退时创建的。年有研究发现,超过一半的财富500强公司都是在衰退或熊市期间创设的。经济衰退时期,看起来并非完全不适合创设新公司。事实上,萧条(或繁荣)对经济的商业环境的影响远比一般人意识到的要深远,因为它们既影响新企业的设立速度又影响现有企业的运营状况。Some argue that recessions speed up the process of productive economic churn;what Joseph Schumpeter called ;creative destruction;. The destruction part is easy to see: downturns kill businesses, leaving boarded-up windows on the high street as their gravestones. But recessions may also spur the creation of new businesses.有些人认为,经济衰退可以加快经济结构的调整进程;;约瑟夫熊彼特称这为;创造性破坏;。破坏那部分很容易理解:经济衰退让企业倒闭,大街上剩下的那些用木板钉牢的窗户就如同他们的墓碑。然而,经济衰退也可能刺激新行业(企业)的诞生。When people suddenly have less money to spend, clever entrepreneurs may see an opportunity to set up businesses that give them what they want more cheaply or efficiently. Downturns may also swell the ranks of potential firm creators, because many who might otherwise have sought a stable salary will reinvent themselves as entrepreneurs. A recent study by Robert Fairlie of the University of California, Santa Cruz found that the proportion of Americans who start a new business each month is on average about half as high again in metropolitan areas where unemployment is in double digits as in those where it is under 2%.当人们的可配的收入突然减少,敏锐的企业家可能抓住这个机会去兴办企业,生产他们需要的更便宜且更有效的商品。经济衰退也可能扩大潜在创业者的规模,因为很多原本要寻找一个稳定的工作的人,将会重塑自己为企业家。圣克鲁兹的加利福尼亚大学的罗伯特费尔利最近的一项研究发现,在失业率高达两位数的大城市,美国人的月均创业比率大约两倍于那些失业率在2%以下的地区。A recession is a difficult time to start a company, of course. Credit is scarce. Would-be entrepreneurs are further handicapped by falling asset prices, since they might want to use their homes as collateral for a start-up loan. Whether downturns on balance help or hurt entrepreneurs depends therefore on the relative strength of these opposing sets of forces.当然,在经济衰退期间创业总是相当艰难的。信用稀缺,且不断下降的资产价格更成为未来的企业家们创业的进一步障碍,因此他们可能以房屋为抵押,从而获得启动资金。因此,资产负债表的恶化对企业家是有利还是有害,取决于他们的相对资本实力。Mr Fairlie finds evidence that the spur to enterprise during the most recent recession in America from a drying-up of other employment opportunities outweighed the drag on business formation from a collapsing housing market. That said, a shrinking economy also makes it hard for young firms to take root and grow. A study commissioned by the Kaufmann Foundation, an organisation devoted to entrepreneurs, suggests that young companies, typically responsible for the bulk of US job creation, added only 2.3m jobs in , down from about 3m a year earlier.费尔利在美国最近的经济衰退中发现的据表明,其他就业机会的枯竭对创业的刺激超过了崩溃的房地产市场的阻碍。也就是说,经济萎缩也使得年轻企业难以扎根和成长。考夫曼基金会(一个致力于研究企业家的组织)资助的一项研究表明,美国大多数就业机会的增加要归功于新企业,在年仅增加了230万就业,而在去年这数字是300万左右。Tough times do not suddenly prompt everyone to start a business. The vast majority of people who reach working age during a downturn still look for a job. But research also suggests that recessions have lasting effects on how executives manage businesses. John Graham of Duke University and Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan of PIMCO, a bond manager, have found that chief executives who lived through the Depression tended to run companies with lower debt levels (leverage then went up when these Depression-era bosses retired). In a new study, Antoinette Schoar and Luo Zuo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology show that companies run many years later by people who cut their teeth during bleak times, when money was tight and customers harder to find, are systematically different from those run by managers whose formative experiences date back to expansionary times, when credit and optimism were in ample supply.艰难的日子并非突然促使每个人去创业。在衰退时期,绝大多数处于工作年龄的人仍然会去寻找工作。但是有研究表明,衰退对管理层管理企业的方式有着持续的影响。杜克大学的约翰葛拉汉和太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的债券经理Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan发现萧条期间的首席执行官倾向于以更低的债务水平运营公司(在大萧条时代的老板退休以后,公司的财务杠杆将会上升)。在一项新研究中,麻省理工学院(MIT)的安托瓦内特肖尔和佐罗( Luo Zuo)发现,那些曾在黑暗时期(银根紧缩,客户难寻)创业的企业家管理多年的公司,与仅经历扩张时期(信贷充足,且对未来持乐观态度)的企业家的公司有系统性的差别。By carefully dissecting the careers of over 5,700 bosses of companies that have been on the Samp;P 1500 list, Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo found that those who began their management careers during a bust were substantially more risk-averse, took on less debt and generally were more conservative managers than the rest of the sample, even many decades later. That will strike critics of the over-leveraged company as thoroughly good news, but it is hard to say whether this effect is entirely benign.通过详细分析那些公司曾入标普1500(Samp;P1500)的公司的5700多名老板的职业生涯,肖尔女士和佐先生发现,那些在萧条时期开始管理生涯的人更不愿意冒险,公司的负债更少。此外,即使几十年之后,相对于样本中的其他老板,他们亦更保守。这对于那些指责公司过度负债的批评家来说,应该是彻底的好消息。然而,很难判断这样的效应是否是完全良性的。Bosses whose careers began in a recession also tend to be so concerned about cost-effectiveness that the companies they go on to run spend less on research and development. They may thus be too conservative: firms with bosses whose professional baptism came in a weak economy have lower returns on assets than those run by other managers.那些在衰退时期开始管理者生涯的人,倾向于过多地关注企业的成本效益,以致他们研发的投入较少。他们也可能因此变得过于保守:对于那些职业生涯受过经济低迷的严峻考验的老板,他们的企业的资产回报率相比其他老板的要低。Why should this be? One plausible explanation is that recessions affect the way people take decisions. Management styles are surely in part the result of the kinds of problems a person has had to grapple with. Even a risk-lover may end up taking more conservative financial decisions in a weak economy. If these decisions serve him well in lean times, then he may conclude that fiscal prudence is a stance worth sticking with in years of plenty.这是为什么呢?一个合理的解释是经济衰退影响人们的决策方式。企业家的管理风格在一定程度上取决于他们过去所应对的各种难题。即使一个风险爱好者也可能在经济不景气的时候最终选择保守的融资决策。如果那些决策在拮据时期给他带来了好处,那么他可能得出这样的结论,即使在经济繁荣的时候,审慎的投融资仍是值得我们持续坚持的立场。Downturns also funnel people into different jobs from those they might otherwise have entered. A 2008 study by Paul Oyer of Stanford University found that Stanford MBAs disproportionately shunned Wall Street during a bear market. This may seem unsurprising;who wants a job in finance when the market is tanking? But there are reasons to believe that these choices make a difference well into the future. Those who begin their careers in a bust are less footloose than their boom-time equivalents. Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo find that the average recession-scarred chief executive is more likely to have risen through the ranks of a firm than the norm, and is less likely to have switched employers or jumped from one industry to another.若不存在经济下滑,人们可能会选择不同的工作。2008年,斯坦福大学的保罗奥耶研究发现,斯坦福的工商管理硕士(MBA)在熊市时都或多或少地避免在华尔街就业。这看起来不足为奇;;在股市大滑坡之际,又有谁愿意在金融领域工作呢?但是我们有理由相信,这些选择的影响将会波及未来。相比那些在经济繁荣期间开始工作的同行,在萧条期间开创职业生涯的人显得更稳定。肖尔女士和 佐先生发现一般经历过经济衰退的首席执行官有更大的可能是从公司的底层一步步爬上来的,也不大可能跳槽或变换所从事的行业。The pool of candidates for top jobs in a particular industry reflects the choices that people make early on in their working lives. Yet these choices are the result not only of managersrsquo; preferences and abilities, as you might expect, but also of the economic circumstances that prevailed at the time they began working. Whether they were set up during a boom or a bust, todayrsquo;s firms are deeply affected by the economic fluctuations of the past.某一特定行业最高职位可供选择的人才反映了他们在工作初期所做的选择。然而,这些选择不仅仅依赖经理的偏好和工作能力,正如你所预料的,也取决于他们开始工作时所处的经济环境。不管企业是在衰退又或者在繁荣时期创设的,现在的企业都深受过去经济波动的影响。201202/171155

  

  Too Cold to Exercise?天冷不宜锻炼?D: Woo……Its freezing out.D:哇,外面太冷了。Y: Come on, Its not that cold.Y:不会吧,没那么夸张。D: Sure it is. Yael.I guess theres just no way I can go jogging today.D:确实很冷啊。我想今天也没办法跑步了。Y: Oh, so thats what this all about.Y:原来你是不想锻炼。D: Not really. What if my lungs freeze?D:也不完全是。如果我的肺结冰了怎么办?Y: Actually, your body is designed so that by the time air reaches your lungs, it’s been warmed up and moisturized by your nasal passages, throat, and trachea. Besides, the blood supply in your lungs is so well developed that there’s virtually no way they can freeze–the circulating blood keeps them nice and toasty.Y:实际上,我们的身体是有应对措施的。当空气进入肺部之前就已经被鼻腔,喉咙和气管加湿,加热。另外,肺部里的血液供给很充足,几乎没有可能结冰-——血液循环让肺部保持正常和舒适。D: Oh,yeah. So why does it hurt to breathe this really cold?D:是吗?那为什么在呼吸冷空气时会疼痛?Y: Well,when the air is frigid, it doesn’t warm up sufficiently before it reaches the airways leading to your lungs, and so it shocks the surrounding muscles and causes them to contract. This, in turn, causes your bronchial tubes to contract too, which results in that tight, prickly feeling.Y:因为在寒冷的空气到达通向肺部的气管时还没有得到充分的热身,所以冲击到周围的肌肉使其收缩。转而使得气管收缩,因此你就会有紧绷刺痛的感觉。D: Uh,sounds dangerous especially when you exercise in breathe to your mouth. What if my tongue freezes?D:听起来很危险,特别是用嘴呼吸时,如果我的舌头结冰的怎么办?Y: Well,Don.Unless you suffer from asthma, breathing in cold air won’t hurt you–and you’d have to worry about frostbite to your fingers and toes long before worrying about your tongue freezing.Y:吸入的冷空气不会对你造成伤害,除非你患有哮喘。你应该担心手指和脚趾的冻疮而不是舌头结冰。 /201212/215473。

  Mike: I almost forgot to renew my subscription to World of Warcraft! If I hadnt mailed that monthly bill today, Id have lost all my progress so far and Im about to set a high score!麦克:我几乎忘了续订魔兽世界!如果我没有在今天邮寄这个月的帐单,我以往的努力就白费了。我的得分很高了!Amanda: How many hours per month do you spend playing that thing?阿曼达:每个月你花多少小时打游戏?Mike: 80-100, I guess. I get unlimited play with my subscription. Its really addicting.麦克:我想大概有80-100个小时吧。订阅之后,我可以无限制的玩。它真的让人入迷。Amanda: So thats why you never have time to do anything anymore. Its like youve disappeared off the face of the earth.阿曼达:所以这就是你永远没有时间做别的事情的原因。你沉迷其中无法自拔了。Mike: Its not that bad. I do get away from the computer sometimes. Dont you play any computer games?麦克:没你说的那么严重。我有时会远离电脑。你不玩任何电脑游戏吗?Amanda: Well, I play Tetris sometimes and also a strange little demo game where you have to push cubes around and match colors. If Im really bored, Ill spend a few hours doing that.阿曼达:哦,我有时也玩Tetris这样的游戏。还有一个奇怪的体验游戏,在游戏中你必须推动小格子和周围的颜色匹配。如果我真的很无聊了,我就花几个小时玩这个游戏。Mike: Strange little demo game? You dont even know what its called?麦克:奇怪的体验游戏?你甚至不知道它叫什么名字?Amanda: It came free with my computer. Let me think...um...its like...you know...its called something like...ah, Ive got it! Its called Cubix! Its stupid and pointless but good for killing time.阿曼达:它是我电脑上的免费游戏。让我想想......嗯......就像......你知道......它叫做......啊,我知道了!它叫做Cubix!这个游戏很愚蠢而且毫无意义,但很适合用来消磨时间。Mike: My computer came with that game too. It is a good time waster, but give me World of Warcraft any day.麦克:我的电脑也有那个游戏。确实很适合用来消磨时间,但我一天都离不了魔兽世界。注:本文译文属原创,,。201204/179390

  Books and Arts; Book Review;19th-century British politics;Third man;文艺;书评;19世纪英国政坛;第三人;John Bright: Statesman, Orator, Agitator.By Bill Cash.《约翰·布莱特:政治家, 演说家, 改革推动者》;比尔·凯西。Bill Cash, a Conservative British backbench politician, has written a book about another backbench politician, who also happens to be an ancestor. Mr Cash frets that his great-grandfathers cousin has been forgotten, but he hasnt really. No historian doubts the importance of John Bright; it is just that he has slipped out of the popular consciousness.比尔·卡什(Bill Cash), 这个英国保守党普通议员为另一位普通议员写了一本书, 而其撰写的这个人物恰好是他的一位先人。卡什议员对于人们已经忘却了他的曾祖父的这位表兄感到不快, 但是其实他没有被忘记。 没有任何历史学家会怀疑约翰。布莱特(John Bright)的重要历史地位; 现今他只是从公众的视野中淡出了。So, for the layman, who was he? The very question, Mr Cash tells us, would have flabbergasted anyone in the 19th century. In 1878 Punch published a series of cartoons of the three Britons whom they deemed to be the greatest statesmen of the age—Benjamin Disraeli, William Gladstone and Bright. Born in 1811 and with a political career spanning nearly 50 years as a member of parliament for Durham, Manchester and Birmingham, Bright would be “the one contemporary statesman whose fame and accomplishments transcended the age,” according to Walter Bagehot, this newspapers editor from 1860-77. A biography by G.M. Trevelyan, which came out in 1913, described him as “a rare example of the hero as politician”.那么,对于我们这些门外汉来说, 这个约翰·布莱特究竟何方神圣?如果是在十九世纪, 卡什先生向我们提出的这个问题, 会令任何人感到诧异。 在1878年, Punch报纸出版了一系列的连载漫画, 讲述了被认为是这个国家最伟大的政治家的3个人, 他们当中有本杰明·迪斯累利(Benjamin Disreali),威廉·格莱斯顿(William Gladstone), 还有一位就是约翰·布莱特。 曾于1860-1877年间担任该报主编的瓦尔特·伯格霍特(Walter.Bogehot)称赞这位生于1811年, 曾担任杜伦、曼切斯特和伯明翰地区议员,拥有跨越了50个年头政治生涯的老议员布莱特为“声誉和成就超越了本时代的当代政治家”。 在1913年为其出版的一本传记中, 该书作者也将布莱特描述为“一位罕见的能被称为英雄的政坛人物”。A Quaker born in Rochdale, Bright made his name campaigning for the repeal of the protectionist Corn Laws, distinguishing himself, as Karl Marx testified, as “one of the most gifted orators that England has ever produced”. He was inspiring as well as courageous, and his passion for free trade was allied to his passion for democracy. He crusaded against monopoly, aristocracy, slavery and more. It was Bright who said that “England is the mother of Parliaments”, a phrase that has passed into idiom. He fought tirelessly for the Reform Act of 1867 which gave the vote to working-class men. A radical as well as a nonconformist, Bright was vocal in his opposition to the Crimean war, which he believed to be un-Christian, a stance that eventually lost him his parliamentary seat.作为来自于罗奇达尔(Rochdale)的公宜会信徒, 布莱特在针对保护主义者的玉米法案的反对运动中初次参加竞选活动, 就展现出超凡的演讲才能, 正如卡尔·马克思(Karl Marx)所言, 他是“英格兰有史以来最有天赋的演说家之一”。他的演讲大胆豪迈又鼓舞人心, 而他对自由贸易的又与其对民主自由的热忱紧紧结合。他严词讨伐垄断势力,贵族阶层和奴隶制度等不平等的制度,而今已成谚语的名言”英国是议会之母”就是出自其语。布莱特曾经为给予了劳工阶层投票权的1867年改革法案而不知疲倦的斗争。身为一个激进派的新教徒, 他也曾直言不讳的反对克里米亚战争(Crimean War)。布莱特认为这场战争是不符合基督教精神的,而这种立场最终让他丢掉了自己的议员席位。Whether you rated him a hero or a villain depended on your point of view. His pugnacity fascinated and repelled people in equal measure. Early tales include a furious quarrel with a local Anglican vicar, both of them hollering from tombstones in the parish churchyard. He was, says Mr Cash, “an independent Radical by principle, with a persistent strain of innate conservatism. He was in the Liberal Party as it evolved but not always of, or evenwith, the Liberal Party”. His relationships with Gladstone and Disraeli were complex. He loathed Lord Palmerston, a former prime minister, and the feeling was mutual.你认为布莱特是个英雄还是恶棍完全取决于你自己的好恶。他好斗的个性有多令人欣赏,同时就有多令人讨厌。他早期的轶事中就有一则关于一次他和一个圣公会的副主教暴吵了一架,两个人都在一个地区教堂的墓地里大喊大叫的故事。卡什先生说,布莱特是一个天生流着保守主义血液的自有原则的激进派;他始终都在自由党中, 但并不总是属于自由党, 甚至不见得总是持自由党。布莱特和格莱斯顿以及迪斯累利的关系都很复杂。 他还极端厌恶前首相帕梅尔斯通(Palmerston), 而帕梅尔斯通对布莱特也没什么好感。Mr Cash is a lawyer by training and a politician by profession. He has a sharp eye for detail and he presents a strong case. What he does not explain is how Bright slipped out of view. His own interest, he tells the er, has increased “in inverse proportion to the decline in the vibrancy, accountability and sovereignty of our Parliament”. But the underlying lament, that Bright has been censored out by fashion “as people became cynical of moral and political certainties” is too marbled with nostalgia to be believable.卡什先生是法律专业出身, 但是现在是职业政治家。 他眼光犀利, 善于捕捉细节, 并能摆出有力的例。 他并不想解释为什么布莱特从公众的关注中淡出了。 他在书中透露给读者, 与“英国议会的权威性、可信度和活跃度的每况愈下”, 他自己的影响力倒是与日俱增。但是那份对于”由于如今人们对道德和政治信仰已是不屑一顾”而导致布莱特被人淡忘的哀伤却显得过于有怀旧的意味而不足以令人信。Bright was a political force, but he never held high office, so he was rather like a midfielder who forever sets up the strikers: assists dont count as much as goals. A full- scale revival of his reputation would have to rouse the ers imagination. Mr Cash es Brights dictum that “my life is in my speeches”, many of which are rhetorical masterpieces; but the er wants more of the man, more of the life outside the speeches. Bright believed that biographies “are soon forgotten, and of no influence in the future”. Historians will enjoy this fine political portrait, but it is unlikely to make Bright famous again.布莱特有相当的政治影响力, 但是却从未担任高官, 所以其实他更像是一个永远为前锋提供持的中场队员:他的助攻不见得都能转化为得分。 要全面恢复布莱特的声望还有赖于唤起读者们的想象空间。 卡什先生引述了布莱特的一句格言”我的生命都在演讲中”, 布莱特的演讲的确很多都是修辞极佳的经典之作, 但是读者们恐怕想要更多的了解这个人, 了解这个人在演讲之外的生活中是什么样子。布莱特本人认为传记”都是容易被人遗忘的, 而且对未来也不会产生什么影响”。历史学家们应该会对这一部精致地描写了这个政治人物的著作很有兴趣, 但是这本书还是不太可能让布莱特再”火”起来。 /201211/209461Downturn, start up-The effects of recessions on entrepreneurs and managers run deep衰退与创业;;经济衰退对企业家和经理人的影响在加剧THE list of famous companies founded during economic downturns is long and varied. It includes General Motors, ATamp;T, Disney and MTV, all founded during recessions. A study found that over half of Fortune 500 companies got their start during a downturn or a bear market. A recession, it seems, may not be an entirely bad time to start a company. Indeed, busts (and booms) cast a longer shadow on the business landscape than is commonly realised, because they influence both the rate of business formation and how existing firms are run.在经济衰退期间创办的知名企业数量很多,且各式各样的行业都有。通用汽车(General Motors)、美国电话电报公司(ATamp;T)、迪士尼(Disney)和音乐电视(MTV,全球两大音乐台之一)等都是在经济衰退时创建的。年有研究发现,超过一半的财富500强公司都是在衰退或熊市期间创设的。经济衰退时期,看起来并非完全不适合创设新公司。事实上,萧条(或繁荣)对经济的商业环境的影响远比一般人意识到的要深远,因为它们既影响新企业的设立速度又影响现有企业的运营状况。Some argue that recessions speed up the process of productive economic churn;what Joseph Schumpeter called ;creative destruction;. The destruction part is easy to see: downturns kill businesses, leaving boarded-up windows on the high street as their gravestones. But recessions may also spur the creation of new businesses.有些人认为,经济衰退可以加快经济结构的调整进程;;约瑟夫熊彼特称这为;创造性破坏;。破坏那部分很容易理解:经济衰退让企业倒闭,大街上剩下的那些用木板钉牢的窗户就如同他们的墓碑。然而,经济衰退也可能刺激新行业(企业)的诞生。When people suddenly have less money to spend, clever entrepreneurs may see an opportunity to set up businesses that give them what they want more cheaply or efficiently. Downturns may also swell the ranks of potential firm creators, because many who might otherwise have sought a stable salary will reinvent themselves as entrepreneurs. A recent study by Robert Fairlie of the University of California, Santa Cruz found that the proportion of Americans who start a new business each month is on average about half as high again in metropolitan areas where unemployment is in double digits as in those where it is under 2%.当人们的可配的收入突然减少,敏锐的企业家可能抓住这个机会去兴办企业,生产他们需要的更便宜且更有效的商品。经济衰退也可能扩大潜在创业者的规模,因为很多原本要寻找一个稳定的工作的人,将会重塑自己为企业家。圣克鲁兹的加利福尼亚大学的罗伯特费尔利最近的一项研究发现,在失业率高达两位数的大城市,美国人的月均创业比率大约两倍于那些失业率在2%以下的地区。A recession is a difficult time to start a company, of course. Credit is scarce. Would-be entrepreneurs are further handicapped by falling asset prices, since they might want to use their homes as collateral for a start-up loan. Whether downturns on balance help or hurt entrepreneurs depends therefore on the relative strength of these opposing sets of forces.当然,在经济衰退期间创业总是相当艰难的。信用稀缺,且不断下降的资产价格更成为未来的企业家们创业的进一步障碍,因此他们可能以房屋为抵押,从而获得启动资金。因此,资产负债表的恶化对企业家是有利还是有害,取决于他们的相对资本实力。Mr Fairlie finds evidence that the spur to enterprise during the most recent recession in America from a drying-up of other employment opportunities outweighed the drag on business formation from a collapsing housing market. That said, a shrinking economy also makes it hard for young firms to take root and grow. A study commissioned by the Kaufmann Foundation, an organisation devoted to entrepreneurs, suggests that young companies, typically responsible for the bulk of US job creation, added only 2.3m jobs in , down from about 3m a year earlier.费尔利在美国最近的经济衰退中发现的据表明,其他就业机会的枯竭对创业的刺激超过了崩溃的房地产市场的阻碍。也就是说,经济萎缩也使得年轻企业难以扎根和成长。考夫曼基金会(一个致力于研究企业家的组织)资助的一项研究表明,美国大多数就业机会的增加要归功于新企业,在年仅增加了230万就业,而在去年这数字是300万左右。Tough times do not suddenly prompt everyone to start a business. The vast majority of people who reach working age during a downturn still look for a job. But research also suggests that recessions have lasting effects on how executives manage businesses. John Graham of Duke University and Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan of PIMCO, a bond manager, have found that chief executives who lived through the Depression tended to run companies with lower debt levels (leverage then went up when these Depression-era bosses retired). In a new study, Antoinette Schoar and Luo Zuo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology show that companies run many years later by people who cut their teeth during bleak times, when money was tight and customers harder to find, are systematically different from those run by managers whose formative experiences date back to expansionary times, when credit and optimism were in ample supply.艰难的日子并非突然促使每个人去创业。在衰退时期,绝大多数处于工作年龄的人仍然会去寻找工作。但是有研究表明,衰退对管理层管理企业的方式有着持续的影响。杜克大学的约翰葛拉汉和太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的债券经理Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan发现萧条期间的首席执行官倾向于以更低的债务水平运营公司(在大萧条时代的老板退休以后,公司的财务杠杆将会上升)。在一项新研究中,麻省理工学院(MIT)的安托瓦内特肖尔和佐罗( Luo Zuo)发现,那些曾在黑暗时期(银根紧缩,客户难寻)创业的企业家管理多年的公司,与仅经历扩张时期(信贷充足,且对未来持乐观态度)的企业家的公司有系统性的差别。By carefully dissecting the careers of over 5,700 bosses of companies that have been on the Samp;P 1500 list, Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo found that those who began their management careers during a bust were substantially more risk-averse, took on less debt and generally were more conservative managers than the rest of the sample, even many decades later. That will strike critics of the over-leveraged company as thoroughly good news, but it is hard to say whether this effect is entirely benign.通过详细分析那些公司曾入标普1500(Samp;P1500)的公司的5700多名老板的职业生涯,肖尔女士和佐先生发现,那些在萧条时期开始管理生涯的人更不愿意冒险,公司的负债更少。此外,即使几十年之后,相对于样本中的其他老板,他们亦更保守。这对于那些指责公司过度负债的批评家来说,应该是彻底的好消息。然而,很难判断这样的效应是否是完全良性的。Bosses whose careers began in a recession also tend to be so concerned about cost-effectiveness that the companies they go on to run spend less on research and development. They may thus be too conservative: firms with bosses whose professional baptism came in a weak economy have lower returns on assets than those run by other managers.那些在衰退时期开始管理者生涯的人,倾向于过多地关注企业的成本效益,以致他们研发的投入较少。他们也可能因此变得过于保守:对于那些职业生涯受过经济低迷的严峻考验的老板,他们的企业的资产回报率相比其他老板的要低。Why should this be? One plausible explanation is that recessions affect the way people take decisions. Management styles are surely in part the result of the kinds of problems a person has had to grapple with. Even a risk-lover may end up taking more conservative financial decisions in a weak economy. If these decisions serve him well in lean times, then he may conclude that fiscal prudence is a stance worth sticking with in years of plenty.这是为什么呢?一个合理的解释是经济衰退影响人们的决策方式。企业家的管理风格在一定程度上取决于他们过去所应对的各种难题。即使一个风险爱好者也可能在经济不景气的时候最终选择保守的融资决策。如果那些决策在拮据时期给他带来了好处,那么他可能得出这样的结论,即使在经济繁荣的时候,审慎的投融资仍是值得我们持续坚持的立场。Downturns also funnel people into different jobs from those they might otherwise have entered. A 2008 study by Paul Oyer of Stanford University found that Stanford MBAs disproportionately shunned Wall Street during a bear market. This may seem unsurprising;who wants a job in finance when the market is tanking? But there are reasons to believe that these choices make a difference well into the future. Those who begin their careers in a bust are less footloose than their boom-time equivalents. Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo find that the average recession-scarred chief executive is more likely to have risen through the ranks of a firm than the norm, and is less likely to have switched employers or jumped from one industry to another.若不存在经济下滑,人们可能会选择不同的工作。2008年,斯坦福大学的保罗奥耶研究发现,斯坦福的工商管理硕士(MBA)在熊市时都或多或少地避免在华尔街就业。这看起来不足为奇;;在股市大滑坡之际,又有谁愿意在金融领域工作呢?但是我们有理由相信,这些选择的影响将会波及未来。相比那些在经济繁荣期间开始工作的同行,在萧条期间开创职业生涯的人显得更稳定。肖尔女士和 佐先生发现一般经历过经济衰退的首席执行官有更大的可能是从公司的底层一步步爬上来的,也不大可能跳槽或变换所从事的行业。The pool of candidates for top jobs in a particular industry reflects the choices that people make early on in their working lives. Yet these choices are the result not only of managersrsquo; preferences and abilities, as you might expect, but also of the economic circumstances that prevailed at the time they began working. Whether they were set up during a boom or a bust, todayrsquo;s firms are deeply affected by the economic fluctuations of the past.某一特定行业最高职位可供选择的人才反映了他们在工作初期所做的选择。然而,这些选择不仅仅依赖经理的偏好和工作能力,正如你所预料的,也取决于他们开始工作时所处的经济环境。不管企业是在衰退又或者在繁荣时期创设的,现在的企业都深受过去经济波动的影响。201202/171155

  Business The revival of independent film Scripts, not effects商业 独立电影的复兴 剧本是关键,资金不成问题Independent films are at last recovering from the slump最终,独立电影在走出低谷THE Toronto film festival, which ends this week, marks the start of the serious-film season. Out—at least until Thanksgiving, in late November—go the superhero spectaculars. In come the foreign films and the dining-room dramas. The autumn crop is far more prone to failure than the summer one. But highbrow films now come with higher hopes.本周结束的多伦多电影节,标志着严肃题材电影季节拉开了帷幕。依靠超级英雄来取票房的电影至少要持续播映到十一月末的感恩节。外国电影和文艺影片将走向舞台。可以预计的是秋季票房收入比夏季还要惨淡。但高格调电影迎来了更高的期许。For the past few years the independent film business has resembled a low-budget horror movie. Outside financing was brutally killed in 2008, as banks stopped lending. Three of the six major studios axed subsidiaries that had specialised in buying independent films. Consumers struck another blow by switching from buying DVDs to renting them.过去几年间,独立电影产业的遭遇堪于一部低成本恐怖电影并论。随着停止给提供贷款,在2008年,外界融资渠道也中断了。六大电影工作室中的三个停止了之前专门购买独立电影的子公司。消费者接着又补上一记重拳,他们开始租赁光碟而不再购买DVD了。Yet sales at film festivals this year have been brisk. New buyers such as CBS Films and Open Road Films have emerged to replace the departed studios. The larger independent outfits have steadied. The Weinstein Company, which almost collapsed two years ago, is basking in the success of ;The Kings Speech; (pictured). Lionsgate has shaken off an activist investor, Carl Icahn, who had argued it should get out of film production. Summit Entertainment, maker of the popular ;Twilight; films, closed a large financing deal in March.然而,今年各个电影节的影片销售却一路高歌猛进。新的买家如CBS和Open Road Films公司开始取代离开此领域的工作室。更大规模的独立摄制组运作也趋于平稳。两年前处于破产边缘的韦恩斯坦公司,依靠着《国王的演讲》,咸鱼翻身。狮门公司摆脱了它那位激进的投资商卡尔?伊坎,他曾主张狮门公司应该关闭其电影业务。《暮色》系列电影的制造商,顶峰公司在三月拒绝了一笔数额巨大的收购提议,决定不出售公司。It helps that films have become cheaper to make. Actors salaries remain depressed, and indies have become expert at exploiting competition between states and countries, which lavish subsidies on them. Most important, says Morris Ruskin, the head of Shoreline Entertainment, a glut of films commissioned in the era of loose credit has at last worked its way through the pipeline. ;Weve gone from a market that was saturated with films to a market that is hungry for them,; he says.电影制作成本的下降对独立电影业的发展有着推波助澜的效果。演员们的薪水依然不高,各独立电影制作公司精于利用州与州,国与国之间的竞争关系,从中获取慷慨的补助。海岸的老板 莫里斯.若斯金表示,最重要的是,信贷宽松时期充斥着被委托制作的电影,如今终于熬出头了。他谈到:;那个供应饱和的市场已经远去,现在市场对电影变得趋之若鹜。;The post-financial-crisis independent film business is both more independent and more focused on film than before. The three major studios that got out of indie films—Disney, Paramount and Warner Bros—have not returned and are concentrating on a few expensive blockbusters. And the collapse of DVD sales means it is more important to drive people to cinemas. Richard Abramowitz, who is distributing the racing film ;Senna; in America, says the sp of Blu-ray cinema projectors has cut costs dramatically.后金融危机的独立电影业较之以往,即更为独立,也更注重电影本身。退出独立电影行列的三大电影工作室——迪斯尼、派拉蒙和华纳兄弟——并没有重返独立电影业,而是将重心放在了花费高昂的大成本影片当中。光盘销售业的凋零使得把观众请到电影院变得尤为重要。正在负责赛车题材电影《塞纳》营销工作的理查德?阿布拉莫威茨谈到,蓝光播放器的普及使得其制造成本大大降低了。The business is more international, too. Roman Polanskis latest film, ;Carnage;, was financed by Europeans, with American distribution added almost as an after-thought. Total sales of cinema tickets fell slightly in America last year. But they were up in Europe, and soared in Russia. Talky dramas are harder to export than cartoons or action flicks, which is partly why the major studios now concentrate on such things. But independent horror films sometimes travel well.独立电影业也更趋于国际化。罗曼波兰斯基的最新力作《杀戮》由欧洲电影公司投资。美国的发行商随后也加入进来,虽然有马后炮的嫌疑。去年,美国电影的总票房收入略有下降。但在欧洲电影票房喜人,在俄罗斯则称的上是一路飙升。对话比重多的电影比卡通片和动作片出口要困难,这部分说明了为何现在大的电影巨头把后两者视为重心。但独立电影业出品的恐怖电影有时在海外票房堪佳。It is still a harsh business. No fewer than 3,812 full-length movies were submitted to the 2011 Sundance film festival. Yet only 550 films open in American cinemas each year, and most lose money. The business runs on hope. But there is, finally, enough money to keep the projectors running.电影业的竞争依旧激励。多达3812部长篇电影提交参审2011年的圣丹斯电影节。然而美国影院每年放映影片的数量却只有550部,大部分电影的投资打了水漂。独立电影业前景看好,发展显著。但说到底,是足够的资金持着拍摄项目的运作。 /201301/219741BEFORE the European Union summit on January 30th, Italyrsquo;s new prime minister, Mario Monti, will have visited the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the British prime minister, David Cameron, whom he saw on January 18th. Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, has been to see him in Rome. And the French, German and Italian leaders plan a pre-meeting just before the summit.欧盟峰会将于1月30日召开,在此前夕,意大利新总理马里奥bull;蒙蒂将访问德国总理安格拉bull;默克尔和法国总统尼古拉bull;萨科齐。此前,他还于1月18日访问了英国首相戴维bull;卡梅隆。欧盟理事会常任主席赫尔曼bull;范龙佩也将在罗马与其会面。此外,法、德、意三国领导人还计划在峰会召开前举行一次预会。It is a far cry from most of the second half of last year, when Europersquo;s leaders did as much as they could to avoid being caught in a photograph with Mr Montirsquo;s scandal-tainted predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi. Italy, it seems fair to say, is back at the top table. And that could have far-reaching effects on the euro crisis. For, as he is making increasingly plain, Mr Montirsquo;s ideas on how to resolve it are significantly at odds with those of the Germans who have until now been doing most of the ordering;and choosing pretty thin gruel.这可真与去年下半年的情况大不相同,那时,欧洲各国领导人竭力避免与丑闻缠身的西尔维奥bull;贝卢斯科尼(蒙蒂的前任)同台亮相。而现在,似乎是时候说,意大利又重回贵宾席了。这可能对欧元危机产生深远的影响,因为蒙蒂正愈发清晰地表明在如何解决危机的问题上他与那些德国人的想法大不相同;;到目前为止,德国主要是作为发号施令者(此前德国一直认为只有欧元区各国统一标准、严守财政纪律,才能克欧元区管理存在的结构性缺陷;;译注),却没有给出什么有效的解决措施。;Adherence to fiscal discipline is a necessary condition for growth,; he told an audience at the London Stock Exchange on January 18th. ;It is not however a sufficient condition.; His message to Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy is that the EU must move from reliance only on austerity towards some growth-stimulating measures. This was a view repeated by Standard amp; Poorrsquo;s, the rating agency that downgraded nine euro-zone countries, including Italy, on January 13th. Unlike his colleague from France, also downgraded, and the European Commission, Mr Monti did not criticise Samp;P: indeed, he shared much of its analysis.1月18日,蒙蒂在伦敦券交易所对一名在场观众说道:;遵守财政纪律是保经济增长的必要条件,然而,只有这一个条件是不够的。;他将向默克尔和萨科齐表示,欧盟不能再仅仅依赖于紧缩方案,而应采取一些刺激增长的措施。而这正是标准普尔反复提到的观点一致;;标普是一家评级机构,它在1月13日下调了包括意大利在内的9个欧元区国家的信用等级。与欧盟委员会以及同样被降级的法国同僚不同,蒙蒂并未指责标普:事实上,他认同很多标普所做的分析。Mr Monti, who served as the EUrsquo;s commissioner for the single market and then competition between 1995 and 2004, is a rare creature: an Italian economic liberal. He is not a proponent of harrying Berlin to reflate to boost domestic consumption. But he would like to see the Germans do more to liberalise their own services, to bolster the EUrsquo;s single market (indeed, he wrote a report for the commission in May 2010 advocating further liberalisation).蒙蒂在1995年到2004年间曾先后担任欧盟内部市场专员和竞争委员会专员,他是一名罕见的意大利经济自由主义者。他并不提倡迫使德国政府再度采用通货膨胀的方式来拉动内需,却想要看到德国努力使其市场自由化,以促进欧盟统一市场的发展。(其实,他在2010年5月就写了一份报告给欧盟委员会来提倡进一步的自由化)。In London this week Mr Monti pledged to back a British effort to complete the single market, and thus to improve competitiveness throughout the EU. Although he believes it is unrealistic to expect Mr Cameron to go back on his refusal in December to sign up to the proposed fiscal compact between EU members, he is keen to involve the British as much as possible.本周蒙蒂在伦敦承诺将持英国为构建完整的统一市场所做的努力,从而全面提高欧盟的竞争力。卡梅隆曾在12月份拒绝签署欧盟成员国之间的财政条约。虽然蒙蒂觉得,要想让卡梅隆改变主意,恐怕不太现实,但他热切期望英国能够尽可能多地参与进来。Speaking before his visit to London, in his office in Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Mr Monti says: ;The more the UK feels distanced from European construction, the less others are able to benefit from the full influence of the many good things that the UK can help us all to achieve, and therefore there are many areas where I think it would be beneficial to have the UK fully at the table.;出访伦敦之前,在坐落于罗马基奇宫的总理办公室中,蒙蒂说道:;英国可以帮助我们各国达成许多具有全面影响的积极措施,而英国越是被排除在欧洲市场建设之外,其他国家能够从中得到的利益也就越少,因此,我认为英国的全面参与会使我们在诸多领域获益。;201201/169393

  

  Books and Arts; The work of Cima da Conegliano;文艺;西玛·达·科内利亚诺的作品;An overlooked master;Venice comes to Paris;沙海遗珠;走向巴黎;Tall, lean and with a head of brown curls, St John the Baptists intense expression seizes the viewers gaze. The enthroned Virgin holding the Christ child may be the subject of this late-15th-century painting, yet the eye is drawn to the saint (pictured, detail). He feels real, somehow, with the magnetism of a rock star. This is a quality found in many of the saints portrayed by Giovanni Battista Cima, called Cima da Conegliano.高大瘦削,一头棕色的卷发,施洗者圣约翰紧张的表情抓住了观众的目光。圣母抱着圣婴可能是这幅十五世纪晚期绘画的主题,但人们的视线还是被圣徒吸引(如图,局部)。不知怎的,他让人感觉真实,有摇滚巨星般的吸引力。这是被称为西玛·达·科内利亚诺的乔瓦尼·巴蒂斯塔西玛所绘众多圣徒身上共有的特质。Readers can be forgiven for not recognising the name. Born in 1459, Cima became a painter during the blossoming of the Italian Renaissance. It was an inspiring time to be an artist, but the competition was fierce. He worked in Venice, where Giovanni Bellini was aly established. By the time Cima died in 1517/18, Giorgione and Titian had made their marks. The fame of these artists has overshadowed Cimas. It is a shame. Bernard Berenson, one of the most influential writers on the Venetian Renaissance, said of him: “No other master of that time paints so well the pearly light that models the Italian landscape with a peculiar lightness and bth.” Cimas depiction of the landscape influenced his more famous contemporaries. Now visitors to Paris are being offered the chance to make his acquaintance. “Cima da Conegliano: Master of the Venetian Renaissance” at the Luxembourg Museum is a wonderful show.读者没听过这个名字可以谅解。西玛出生于1459,是意大利文艺复兴全盛时期的画家。这一时期是艺术家辈出的时代,但竞争激烈。他曾在作画,而乔瓦尼·贝利尼已在大放异。到1517 /18年西玛去世的时候,乔尔乔内和提香也成名了。这些艺术家的名声盖过了西玛。这是一个憾事。伯纳德·贝伦森是文艺复兴方面最有影响力的作家之一,他说:“当时没有别的大师可以用独特的浅淡颜色以及幅宽把意大利风景画得如此流光溢。”西玛对风景的描画影响了比较有名的同代人。现在巴黎的游客有了了解西玛的机会。卢森堡物馆的画展《西玛·达·科内利亚诺:文艺复兴时期的大师》是一场精的展览。Cima painted in tempera and oil on wood. Such pictures are notoriously fragile, yet this exhibition features 30 works, all of them on wood panels. The loans have come from churches, museums and private collections—evidence of the diplomatic talents of Giovanni Villa, the shows curator. They include half-lengths of the Virgin and Child made for private devotion; full-sized portrayals of saints; and scenes from classical mythology, including Theseus slaying a rather handsome minotaur. The smaller pictures are gripping, but the large altar paintings are the main attraction. Many hang on free-standing panels, and their warm, rich colours sing out in rooms of slate grey. The show is big enough to suggest the artists range, but small enough to encourage private contemplation. Cima has captured the light and mood of the Veneto. Paris falls away and the visitor is transported to Venice.西玛用油在木材上作画。众所周知,这种画十分娇贵,而本次展览展出的30件作品全放在木制嵌板上。展出的画都是从教堂、物馆和私人收藏借来的,显示了展览策展人乔瓦尼·费拉的外交才干。这批画包括画来送人的圣母圣婴半身肖像画;还有圣徒的全身肖像画;以及古典神话中的场景,其中有忒修斯杀死一个相当漂亮的人身牛头怪物。小幅的画扣人心弦,而大型的圣坛画更具吸引力,是主要吸引参观者的画作。许多画挂在独立的嵌板上,它们丰富的暖色在瓦灰色的展室里绽放。这场展览规模大到足以表明艺术家的定位,但也小到足以引人沉思。西玛捕捉到了意大利威尼托区的光线和色调。巴黎消失了,参观者被送到了。The show opens with Jacopo de Barbaris famous birds-eye view of the city. This enormous map, a masterpiece of Renaissance printmaking, was published in 1500 when Cima lived there. A small copy pinpoints Cima sites, including that of his studio in San Luca near the Rialto Bridge.画展以雅格布·德·巴巴里著名的鸟瞰图开始。这个巨大的地图是文艺复兴时期的版画杰作,1500年西玛住在的时候出版的。在一幅小型复制图上用针标出了西玛住所的精确位置,包括他在里亚尔托桥附近圣卢卡的工作室位置。The altar painting of the Virgin mentioned above soon follows. It was commissioned for the Duomo in Cimas hometown, and has remained in that Conegliano church since 1492. Some complain that church art loses its force when displayed out of context. Yet each element, from the stylised foliage of the dome above to the angel musicians below, is far easier to see and appreciate in Paris than it is in Conegliano. Cima often painted the same models. The viewer meets St John the Baptist, St Catherine and St Jerome (and his lion) more than once walking through this show. The result is a warm and welcome sense of familiarity, rather than the feeling that one is looking at actors in a series of religious tableaux.上面提到的圣母玛利亚的圣坛画紧随其后。这幅画是受托为西玛家乡的大教堂画的,自1492年起一直保存在科内利亚诺教堂。有人抱怨说,脱离了背景进行展示,教堂艺术就失去了它的感染力。然而,从上面圆顶千篇一律的叶饰到下面的天使音乐家,每个元素在巴黎都比在科内利亚诺更容易领会欣赏。西玛经常画相同的画面形象。看过整个展览的观众会不止一次地见到圣约翰、圣凯瑟琳和圣杰罗姆(以及他的狮子)。结果观众感到的是温暖愉悦的熟悉感,而不是那种在一系列宗教舞台造型中看着演员的感觉。The exhibition ends as it begins, with Venice. In a very large work, the winged lion of St Mark—symbol of both the saint and the city he founded—fills most of the painting. The four saints who flank him appear pint-sized in comparison. Whatever else the picture was meant to signify, it is plain that the aim was to show the overwhelming power of Venice. Bubbly Prosecco, a better-known product of Conegliano, is for sale in the museum shop. New and old admirers of Cima may well wish to raise a glass to this underappreciated master.展览以开始,也以来结束。在一件非常大型的作品中,圣马可的飞狮填满了大部分画面,这个飞狮既是圣马可的标识,也是他所守护的城市的标识。比较而言飞狮侧面的四个圣徒看起来比标准的要小一些。不管这幅画还意指别的什么,显然其目的是为了显示的征力。物馆的商店内出售普罗赛克香槟酒,该酒科内利亚诺较知名的产品。西玛的新老崇拜者也许很希望为这个怀才不遇的大师举杯。 /201212/214743。

  

  Dear Annie:My girlfriend and I have been together for three years. When we first started dating, Mary unexpectedly became pregnant and we now have a beautiful child who is our lifes joy. I would like to ask Mary to become my wife. Heres the problem: Money is pretty tight with a toddler, so buying an expensive engagement ring will be difficult. Is cubic zirconium worth looking into? I thought Id get a nice-looking CZ ring and, when things settle down, maybe replace it with a real diamond.亲爱的安妮:我和我女朋友在一起已经有三年了。当我们开始约会时,玛丽意外怀了,所以现在我们有个漂亮的宝宝,他给我们的生活带来不少快乐。我想让玛丽成为我的妻子。但存在一个问题:有了孩子之后用钱很紧张,因此买昂贵的婚戒就困难起来。那么暂时镶上锆石是否值得考虑?我打算先买一个好看的锆石环,等稳定以后,再用真正的钻石换掉锆石。My initial thought is to be upfront with Mary and tell her. Do you think thats a good idea? We have a joint checking account, so shell know all about my purchases. Is there a good way to mask how much the ring costs?—Perplexed in the Midwest我最初的想法是想事先跟玛丽商量一下。你认为这个主意好不好?我们拥有一个共同的票账户,所以我买任何东西她都会知道。有没有好的方法掩盖戒指的价值。Dear Perplexed:Dont lie to Mary about the value of the ring. Women can be very understanding about not getting a diamond, but they dont like being fooled. And if you are serious about replacing the ring later, it doesnt matter what the original is made from. As for hiding the cost, you can put aside small amounts of cash until you have enough to purchase the ring and Mary will never know what you paid for it. P.S.: Best wishes on your upcoming engagement.戒指的价值不要和Mary撒谎。没有钻戒女人能理解,但是她们不喜欢被骗。如果你真的准备事后换戒指,那戒指最先是什么材料都不重要。至于隐藏花销,你可以先攒小笔钱,直到你有足够的钱来购买戒指,玛丽绝不会知道你用哪比钱买的戒指。附:祝福你们即将到来的婚礼。原文译文属!201304/233111

  

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