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2019年09月23日 11:37:10来源:365社区

Last month Ricardo Hausmann, a normally mild Harvard academic, set off the equivalent of a financial bomb. The economist suggested that Venezuela had aly defaulted on many of its suppliers, its oil service contractors, and its citizens. So who or what might come next?上个月,通常温和的哈佛(Harvard)学者里卡多#8226;豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)不啻引爆了一枚金融炸弹。这位经济学家表示,委内瑞拉已对其许多供应商、石油务合同商以及国民违约了。那么,接下来可能对谁或者哪个领域违约呢?When Hausmann suggested Wall Street, the market reaction was huge. Indeed Venezuelan bonds, undercut by the falling oil price, have been dropping ever since. Yet it turns out that Venezuela’s latest default has been, in fact, to China. Given that Beijing is one of Caracas’ closest allies, this is surprising. It is also bullish for Wall Street.豪斯曼对华尔街(Wall Street)的提醒,引起了市场的巨大反响。实际上,因油价下跌而被压低的委内瑞拉债券,从那时起价格一直在下跌。但事实明,委内瑞拉最新的违约对象其实是中国。鉴于中国是委内瑞拉的最亲密盟国之一,此事颇令人惊讶。这也利好华尔街。Venezuela has long been a major recipient of Chinese loans, accounting for half of Beijing’s lending to the region. Since 2006, it has taken on bn of oil-backed debt. Last year, Rafael Ramirez, the former head of state-oil company PdvSA, revealed that these payments-in kind absorbed over half of Venezuela’s 640,000 barrels per day of oil exports to China. But no more, it seems.长期以来,委内瑞拉一直是获得中国贷款的大户,占到中国对拉美贷款总量的二分之一。自2006年以来,该国接受了500亿美元石油持贷款。去年国有石油公司——委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)的前掌舵人拉斐尔#8226;拉米雷斯(Rafael Ramirez)透露,这种以石油偿还贷款的方式占该国每日64万桶对华石油出口的逾一半。但是,看来以后不会这样了。Last week, Venezuela’s national gazette made it official that Caracas no longer needed to export 330,000 barrels bpd to China to pay for its loans. Instead, according to BancTrust, a boutique investment bank, PdVSA can now send as much or as little oil to Beijing as it wants. Furthermore, the terms of the loans have been extended beyond their current three years, perhaps indefinitely. China’s Ministry of Commerce has since confirmed the changes, pointing out they were made at Venezuela’s request.上周,委内瑞拉全国性报纸公开称,该国不再需要每日向中国出口33万桶石油以偿还贷款。相反,小型投行BancTrust表示,PDVSA现在向中国出口石油量的多少,完全由其自己决定。另外,贷款期限已在当前的3年基础上延长,可能是无限期的延长。中国商务部后来已实了这一变动,并指出这是应委内瑞拉的要求而做出的。This de facto debt rescheduling tells us several important things. First, it is another confirmation of Venezuela’s economic and financial distress. To service its Chinese debts at lower oil prices, Venezuela would have had to export comparably more oil. But the country cannot increase oil output quickly. Nor does it have the financial wherewithal to service its Chinese debts in cash instead; foreign reserves are aly under pressure. So something else had to be done.这一实际上的债务延期告诉我们几个重要事实。第一,这再次实了委内瑞拉的经济与金融困局。要在更低油价下偿还中国债务,委内瑞拉将不得不出口更多石油。但该国无法迅速提高石油产量,同样也没有财力以现金偿还中国债务。该国外汇储备已在承压。所以必须采取其他措施。Second, China apparently agreed to the debt rescheduling perhaps because its banks believed in taking the long view. After all, Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves – so one day it will pay. But was the rescheduling China’s preferred choice? As the old saying goes: if you owe the bank , you have a problem, but if you owe the bank m, the bank has a problem. Either way, China is unlikely to be a source of fresh finance for Venezuela from now on.第二,中国看来同意了债务延期,可能是因为中国的认为应该放眼长远。委内瑞拉毕竟拥有世界最大的石油储量,所以总有一天它将偿还债务。但债务延期是中国的首选吗?正如古谚所说:如果你欠5美元,那么你将有麻烦,但如果你欠500万美元,那么将有麻烦。不管哪种情况,从现在开始,中国都不可能成为委内瑞拉获得新融资的来源国了。Lastly, Venezuela now has 330,000 bpd of oil – equivalent to almost m a day or bn a year — that it can use for other ends. One use might be to ease the import crunch that has resulted in shortages of so many basic goods, such as toilet paper. Another might be to divert resources to meet international bond payments. Either way, Venezuela is struggling and so far Wall Street is still being paid. But for how much longer?最后,委内瑞拉现在有每日33万桶的石油——折合价格接近每日2500万美元、每年90亿美元——可用到其他用途了。可能用途之一是缓解进口资金紧张,后者已导致诸如卫生纸等众多基本商品的短缺。另外可以转作偿还国际债券之用。不管哪种情况,委内瑞拉都在拼命挣扎。迄今华尔街仍收到该国的还款,但这种状况还能延续多久呢? /201410/338081。

  • China overtook the US as the biggest importer of crude last month, the culmination of a big shift in energy flows during the past decade.中国上月超越美国,成为最大原油进口国,这标志着过去10年能源流动的大转变达到高潮。Chinese customs data showed that oil purchases from overseas hit a high of 7.4m barrels a day in April, equivalent to one in every 13 barrels consumed and topping US imports of 7.2m barrels a day.中国海关数据显示,4月份石油进口达到每日740万桶(相当于全球每日石油消费量的13分之一),超过美国每日720万桶的进口量。While China’s imports are not expected consistently to surpass those of the US until the second half of the year, the move shows how the US shale revolution has cut the country’s reliance on oil from overseas and how China’s demand has grown even as its economy slows.预计中国的石油进口量要到今年下半年才会持续超过美国。尽管如此,4月数据显示,美国页岩革命降低了该国对进口石油的依赖,而中国的石油需求在经济放缓之际有增无减。Colin Fenton, managing partner at Blacklight Research, said China’s imports increased as it stockpiled oil.Blacklight Research管理合伙人科林#8226;芬顿(Colin Fenton)表示,中国扩充石油库存导致进口增加。“It’s begun,” Mr Fenton said. “China’s crude imports have been above trend in four of the past five months.”“这已经开始,”芬顿表示。“中国的原油进口在过去五个月中的四个月高出趋势线。”Last month’s jump was partly due to higher shipments from Iran, according to consultancy Energy Aspects.据咨询公司Energy Aspects介绍,上月中国石油进口跃升的部分原因是从伊朗进口的数量提高。China Oil also bought a record number of Oman and Abu Dhabi crude cargoes in a public trading window that helps determine the region’s benchmark prices.中国联合石油有限责任公司(Chinaoil,简称中联油)还利用一个帮助确定中东基准油价的公开交易窗口,购买了创纪录数量的阿曼和阿布扎比原油船货。“Iran may be offering more discounts on its oil as part of an effort to increase ties with Chinese oil companies,” Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects said. “Iran is keen to secure more Chinese investment.”“伊朗可能对它的石油提供更多折扣,作为其增进与中国石油企业关系的努力的一部分,”Energy Aspects的阿姆里塔#8226;森(Amrita Sen)表示。“伊朗渴望获得更多的中国投资。”China’s state traders are taking a more visible role in the crude market. They have built up more sophisticated operations to compete directly with established desks at western companies such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell, banks like Goldman Sachs, and commodity dealers such as Vitol and Glencore.中国的国营贸易商正在原油市场上扮演更为显著的角色。他们已经建立了更高水平的交易部门,以便与西方企业如英国石油(BP)和荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell),如高盛(Goldman Sachs),以及大宗商品交易商如维多(Vitol)和嘉能可(Glencore)的老牌交易部门直接竞争。In the US, higher prices and more efficient vehicles curbed consumption in the aftermath of the financial crisis, while the surge in shale output over the past three years has reduced imports.在美国,金融危机过后较高的油价和能效更佳的汽车抑制了石油消费,而过去三年激增的页岩油产量已减少了石油进口。Producers are chafing at government restrictions on US crude exports that date back to the oil shocks of the 1970s.产油企业不满美国政府对原油出口的限制,这些限制是上世纪70年代石油危机期间出炉的。US imports might rebound in the short term, traders say, with fuel demand boosted by the collapse of oil prices to a barrel. The price fall has also sharply reduced drilling activity in US shale regions such as North Dakota.交易商们表示,美国的石油进口短期内可能反弹,原因是油价崩盘至每桶65美元提振了燃料需求。油价暴跌也大幅减少了美国页岩地区(如北达科他州)的钻探活动。But the long-term trend is towards rising Chinese imports. The country is adding refining capacity with its economy growing at more than 7 per cent a year. “The world has a lot of oil,” one trader at a China firm said. “And we need a lot of oil.”但长期趋势是中国的石油进口不断增长。中国正在增加炼油产能,而其整体经济每年增长7%以上。“世界有大量石油,”中国某公司的一名交易员表示。“而我们需要大量石油。”For the US, reducing imports is a goal of politicians and foreign policy experts who see the country’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude as a national security risk. Before the financial crisis, the US imported as much as 10m barrels of oil a day — more than half the oil the country consumed.就美国而言,减少进口是政界人士和外交政策专家的目标,他们将美国对中东原油的依赖视为国家安全风险。在金融危机之前,美国石油进口曾高达每日1000万桶,占该国石油消费量的一半以上。 /201505/374474。
  • Wealthy Chinese looking for an escape route from their native land — and there are hundreds of thousands in this class — received bad news last week: the Canadian government decided to terminate a deal that essentially allowed foreign millionaires to loan 800,000 Canadian dollars (or a little less than 0,000) to the Canadian state for five years in exchange for permanent residency. Ottawa’s cancellation of the immigrant-investor program means that 65,000 pending applications will be left unprocessed. The majority of these unprocessed visa appeals are from mainland Chinese.在当下中国的富豪阶层中存在着千千万万寻求移民的富人们——但是他们得注意了,坏消息表明,加拿大政府最近决定终结一项外国百万富翁通过在5年中不间断地为加拿大本国提供80万加元(略微比73万美元少一点点)的贷款而换取永久居留权的政策。渥太华方面对这项移民投资政策的废除意味着六万五千名移民申请案件将被遗弃搁置。这些尚未处理的签大部分都是来自中国本土。So what’s a poor rich Chinese to do now? The China Daily, the government’s English-language mouthpiece, described Canada’s cancelation as “unfair” in a Feb. 17 headline. But immigration agencies in Beijing, with their plush offices in the central business district, are hawking plenty of alternatives.那么这些可怜的中国富人们现在该怎么办呢?中国报刊将加拿大的政策取消措施冠名为“不公平”的称呼。但是北京移民机构,连同他们地处中央商业地段的豪华办公楼正在寻求其他的移民途径。One option lies just south of the Canadian border. Chinese who invest as little as 0,000 and employ 10 people in a rural or struggling part of the US can secure EB-5 investor visa, which can lead to green cards. Two major emigration consultancies in Beijing, Globe Visa and Cansine Immigration, are recommending the US now that Canada’s immigrant-investor option has shuttered.其中一个选择便是位于加拿大边境以南的国家。中国投资商只要在美国任意地方——不论是郊区还是繁华都市出资50万美元并雇佣10名员工便能享受EB-5型的投资移民通行,这便为最终获得绿卡奠定了道路。北京的两大移民顾问公司——Globe Visa和Cansine Immigration在继加拿大投资移民之路破灭之后正大力推荐美国投资的道路。Then there are the financial laggards of the EU that are so desperate for a bailout that they are basically selling residency to cash-endowed Chinese for as little as 0,000. Count nations like Latvia, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus in this distressed category. With less cash than it takes to buy a tiny apartment in the outskirts of Beijing, Chinese investors can acquire residency in one European locale, as well as eventual freedom to roam most of the E.U. without a visa.此外目前经济发展迟缓的欧盟国家正为经济紧急救助而苦苦寻求帮助,因此他们便以10万美元的价格向中国富豪们出售居民权。参与这项政策的国家包括拉脱维亚,希腊,葡萄牙以及塞浦路斯。用这些只能在北京郊区买下一套小房子的价钱,中国投资商们能够在欧洲地区获得居民身份,以及无需签便可游览欧盟国家大部分地区的自由权。Even pricier destinations hold allure. A Cansine representative noted that Britain is proving fashionable this year, especially as nations like Australia tighten immigration restrictions. Applicants for British permanent residency must invest £1 million (.7 million), 80% of which in treasury bonds and the remainder in either real estate or in a local savings account, according to Cansine. The catch? Program participants must spend at least half the year in Britain; Latvia, by contrast, requires just one day a year in the country to maintain residency. “Britain is very popular among our clients,” says Cansine’s Liu Jianping, “because the process is easy and it takes only a short time to get approval from the British government.”即使昂贵的旅游目的地仍然具有极大的吸引力。一位凯胜移民顾问公司代表表示英国是今年最受移民欢迎的国家,连同有着严格移民限制的澳大利亚。根据凯胜公司提供的资料,申请英国永久居民权的申请人们必须向英国投资100万英镑(约合170万美元),80%的资产将投向国债,其余的便以房地产或本地储蓄的形式呈现。那么后续情况会是如何呢?项目参与者必须至少在英国生活半年才可以:相反拉脱维亚只需要在一年中留在本国一天便能保留居住权。凯胜公司刘建平表示:;申请移民客户中大部分都会选择英国,原因便在于申请程序很简单,从英国政府获得许可只需要很短的一段时间。”There are also the teeny countries that may be hoping to profit from their very nationhood: St. Kitts and Nevis, Vanuatu, Antigua and Barbuda — all are targeting Chinese investors. Finally, don’t forget Canada either. In its latest budget report, Canada’s Ministry of Finance noted: “There is also little evidence that immigrant investors as a class are maintaining ties to Canada or making a positive economic contribution to the country.” Instead, a new scheme may well require would-be immigrants to fully invest in Canada, as opposed to simply providing a zero-interest loan for five years, as the previous program mandated. “We can still help Chinese get to Canada,” says Qu Bo, from the aptly named Go-to-Canada immigration agency in Beijing, which is offering lectures on the new Canadian policy this weekend.同样还有一些小国家希望能够从他们的国家地位中获益:圣基茨岛,尼维斯,瓦努阿图共和国,安提瓜以及巴布达都将目标定位于中国投资商上。但是最终,还是不要忽略了加拿大。在最近的财政预算报告中,加拿大财政大臣表示:“也有一些迹象表明投资移民阶层在对加拿大维系两国关系以及对本国经济的积极贡献上是有一些作用的。”由此看来,根据之前的政策规定,加拿大方面可能还会出台一项新政策来吸引意向投资者们在加进行投资,而非仅仅提供五年的零利率贷款。北京“走遍加拿大移民中心”(Go-to-Canada)的屈波在本周末对于加拿大新移民政策的解读中表示“我们还是有能力帮助中国人移民至加拿大的。”Still, any emigration involves risks. Among them are shady brokers who operate with little legal oversight. Last year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission busted an EB-5 scheme for investment in a Chicago convention center that the government agency says tried to defraud more than 6 million in investments and fees from 250 people, many of whom were Chinese. Luckily, the investment money had been preserved in escrow. But million in fees vanished — along with scores of Chinese hopes for resettling in America.但是,任何的移民都包含着风险。他们中不乏有忽视法律的秘密操纵者。美国监会去年查处了一项为芝加哥会议中心项目投资而获取EB-5签的案件,这个政府机构试图从250人中诈取超过15亿6000万的投资资产和费用,这些投资商中大部分是中国人。幸运的是,投资金额被保存在了委托付款务中。但是依然有一亿一千万美元的资产伴随着中国人期待能够在美国定居的美梦一起消失得无影无踪。 /201402/277520。
  • One joke that has made the rounds among some economists in recent years holds that the Chinese government is not a government at all, but in fact the world#39;s biggest property developer. After all, were it not for revenues from land sales, local government budgets across the country would likely collapse like hundreds of little Lehman Brothers.近年来,一些经济学家中流传着这样一个笑话:中国政府根本不是一个政府,而是全球最大的房地产开发商。毕竟,没有土地出让收入,中国地方财政很可能崩溃,像成百上千个雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)那样。That notion of Beijing as a regime of real estate salesman was reinforced this week after the Communist Party#39;s local flagship newspaper in an eastern Chinese city published a front-page article urging people to buy real estate in one of the country#39;s best-known ghost towns.把中国政府比作卖房子的开发商,这种调侃却在本周得到印。中国东部一个城市的地方党报在头版刊登了一篇文章,呼吁大家在中国最出名的“鬼城”之一买房。#39;Good Opportunity to Buy Houses in Our City#39; proclaimed the headline emblazoned across the top of the Tuesday edition of the Changzhou Daily.《常州日报》周二发表的这篇文章题目是“我市目前已到购房好时机”。The #39;article#39; below (in Chinese) argued that despite recent weakness in Changzhou#39;s property market, there#39;s limited downside for prices and it#39;s #39;a good time to purchase real estate.#39;文章说,常州市楼市虽然出现调整,但房价下降空间不大,目前已到购房好时机。An ancient city in the affluent Yangtze River Delta area that also includes Shanghai, Changzhou boasts a population of 4.7 million people, a struggling solar energy industry, a dinossaur theme park and a robust dried radish industry. But after years of high-octane development fed by rising property prices, the city is probably best known as an example of China#39;s so-called #39;ghost city#39; phenomenon.古城常州与上海一样都位于富庶的长三角地区,拥有470万人口。这里有困境中苦苦挣扎的光伏产业,有一座恐龙主题公园,还有当地特产萝卜干。但在经历了若干年由房价上涨推动的高速发展后,这座城市更为人熟知的可能是它所反映出来的“鬼城”现象。Like dozens of similar third- and fourth-tier cities that overbuilt when the property market was booming in 2009 and 2010, Changzhou had a grand vision for itself. It blocked out a section for higher-end housing and started building a subway in anticipation of transforming itself into a producer of advanced materials and high-tech goods. But with the market cooling and the more alluring lights of Shanghai beckoning the moneyed class, Changzhou#39;s banks of luxury houses remain largely unoccupied.在2009年和2010年房地产炙手可热的时候,像常州这种楼市过度膨胀的三、四线城市还有几十个。和这些城市一样,常州也对自身有宏大的愿景。除了专门划出一片区域用于修建高端房地产外,常州还开始修建地铁线路,希望转型成一个先进材料和高科技产品制造基地。但随着房地产市场开始降温,加之上海对富裕阶层更有吸引力,常州的豪宅大多空置。The average price for private residential properties in Changzhou came in at 6,796 yuan (,095) per square meter in the first half of this year, down 5.8% from a year ago, according to the Changzhou Daily. Citing fresh figures from the city#39;s housing bureau, the newspaper said that contracted sales for private residential properties totaled 2.51 million square meters in the first half of this year, down 11.3% from a year earlier.《常州日报》称,今年上半年,常州居民住宅均价为每平方米人民币6,796元(约合1,095美元),同比下降5.8%。该报援引常州房产最新数据称,今年上半年常州商品住房销售备案面积为251万平方米,同比减少11.3%。Despite those dark numbers, the newspaper insisted on painting a bright picture. Quoting mostly real estate executives, the paper said there#39;s #39;no downside for housing prices in our city.#39;尽管住房销售数据黯淡,但该报极力描绘出一个乐观的前景。该报称走访多位业内人士,他们均表示,常州房价已无下降空间。#39;It#39;s time to buy properties,#39; it added.该报称,近期是购房的好时机。In a country where land sales make up the primary source of disposable income for local governments, it makes sense that a city might want to do what it can to buoy the market. Still, Changzhou#39;s thinly veiled attempt to talk up its sagging property sector drew harsh criticism from Internet users and rival media, including the Communist Party#39;s national mouthpiece - the People#39;s Daily.在一个卖地收入占地方可配财政收入大头的国家,一个城市希望不遗余力提振市场是可以理解的。但常州试图舆论救市的露骨做法仍受到了互联网用户以及媒体同行的批评,包括共产党的喉舌《人民日报》。In an article carried on its digital news portal People.cn (in Chinese), the party#39;s flagship newspaper lashed out at Changzhou Daily#39;s piece as an indirect approach to rescue the local housing market.人民网刊登的一篇文章批评《常州日报》的文章是变相救市。People.cn#39;s article also identified the two authors of Changzhou Daily#39;s story as a reporter from the paper and the head of the propaganda office of Changzhou#39;s housing bureau, respectively.人民网记者还了解到,《常州日报》这篇文章的两名作者分别是常州日报社记者和常州市住房保障和房产宣教处处长。#39;As a local Party newspaper, Changzhou Daily even went so far as to urge the city#39;s residents to buy houses on its front page, saying it was the best time to do so. This kind of market support measure betrays a lack of moral principle,#39; said the People.cn#39;s article.人民网发表的文章称,《常州日报》作为地方政府党报,竟然在头版头条发文号召市民买房,称是最佳买房时机,这种救市之举实属没有节操的行为。In other words: Now is not the time for the hard sell.换句话说,现在还不是强行推销的时候。 /201407/312880。
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