原标题: 抚顺市中心医院包皮手术怎么样百科常识
What would make a smoker more likely to quit, a big reward for succeeding or a little penalty for failing? That is what researchers wanted to know when they assigned a large group of CVS employees, their relatives and friends to different smoking cessation programs.想让吸烟者戒烟,是对戒烟成功大加奖励还是对戒烟失败小施惩戒更加有效?为了搞清楚这个问题,研究人员让CVS药店(CVS)的一大群员工及其亲朋好友接受了不同的戒烟方案。The answer offered a surprising insight into human behavior. Many more people agreed to sign up for the reward program, but once they were in it, only a small share actually quit smoking. A far smaller number agreed to risk the penalty, but those who did were twice as likely to quit.他们得到的展示了人类行为中令人惊讶的一面。有很多人都愿意参加奖励方案,但在加入之后,真正戒了烟的人寥寥无几。而在同意冒险尝试惩罚方案的那一小部分人当中,成功戒烟的可能性却是前者的两倍。The trial, which was described in The New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, was the largest yet to test whether offering people financial incentives could lead to better health. It used theories about human decision making that have been developed in psychology and economics departments over several decades and put them into practice with more than 2,500 people who either worked at CVS Caremark, the country’s largest drugstore chain by sales, or were friends or relatives of those employees.这项试验于5月13日发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》(The New England Journal of Medicine)上,它是迄今为止规模最大的一项以测试经济奖励能否改善人们健康为目的的研究。该试验采用了心理学和经济学部门在近几十年来建立起来的人类决策理论,并将其应用于美国最大的连锁药店CVS Caremark公司的员工及其朋友或亲戚。合计参与人数超过了2500人。Researchers found that offering incentives was far more effective in getting people to stop smoking than the traditional approach of giving free smoking cessation help, such as counseling or nicotine replacement therapy like gum, medication or patches. But they also found that requiring a 0 deposit that would be lost if the person failed to stay off cigarettes for six months nearly doubled the chances of success.研究人员发现,与传统的戒烟方法,即通过各种方式免费帮人戒烟(如提供咨询,使用口香糖、药物或贴片等尼古丁替代疗法)相比,提供奖励的效果要好得多。但他们也发现,如果要求参与者交150美元保金,且告知他们在6个月内无法戒烟就拿不回保金,戒烟的成功率几乎可以翻一番。“Adding a bit of a stick was much better than a pure carrot,” said Dr. Scott Halpern, deputy director of the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, who led the study.该研究的负责人,宾夕法尼亚大学医学院(University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine)健康激励和行为经济学研究中心(Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics)副主任斯科特·哈尔彭(Scott Halpern)士说:“胡萝卜加一点大棒的效果比纯用胡萝卜更好。”The finding is likely to get the attention of large companies as they sort out what types of benefits to offer employees in an era of rising health care costs. Most large employers, which bear much of those costs, now offer incentives for health-promoting behavior in the form of employee wellness programs, but until now, they have had little evidence of what types of programs actually work to guide them.在这个医疗费用不断上涨的时代,上述发现很可能会引起那些正在考虑该为自己的员工提供何种福利待遇的大公司的关注。大多数大型用人单位承担着员工医疗费用的绝大部分,他们现在多以员工保健计划(employee wellness programs)的形式来激励促进健康的行为,但到目前为止,还没有多少据能实哪种方案可以真正有效地指导他们。CVS, which helped conduct the study, is using the findings to design a smoking cessation incentive next month for its more than 200,000 employees.CVS(也就是协助进行该研究的公司)下个月将利用上述研究成果为其20多万名员工设计激励戒烟的方案。“These large employers are spending an average of 0 to 0 per employee per year, but in ways that are often blind to normal human psychology,” Dr. Halpern said, adding that the spending on wellness had nearly doubled in five years.“这些大型用人单位每年平均要在每名员工身上花费800到900美元,”哈尔彭士说,5年内医疗出增加了近一倍,“但他们花钱时却往往对人员心理层面上的因素视而不见。”The trial was intended to change that. Researchers randomly assigned the participants to a number of program options and let them decide whether they wanted to participate. About 14 percent of people assigned to the penalty program accepted it, compared with about 90 percent of people assigned to the reward program.这项试验就是为了要改变这一现状。研究人员向参与者们随机分配了多种戒烟方案,并让他们自己决定是否参加。分配入惩罚方案组的参与者中约有14%表示接受,相比之下,分配入奖励方案组的参与者中接受者高达90%。The penalty program required participants to deposit 0; six months later, those who had quit smoking would get the deposit back, along with a 0 reward. In the reward-only program, participants were simply offered an 0 payment if they stayed off cigarettes for six months.惩罚方案要求参与者缴纳150美元保金;6个月后,成功戒烟者不但得以退还保金,还将获得650美元的奖励。而在纯奖励方案中,参加者戒烟6个月就可以获得800美元的奖励。The success rate for those who joined the pure rewards group was low, about 17 percent, compared with more than 50 percent for the penalty program, though the figures had to be adjusted to account for the possibility that those who opted for the penalty might have been more motivated to quit to begin with.纯奖励方案组的参与者中戒烟成功率很低,约为17%;相比之下,在惩罚方案组中成功率则超过了50%。不过,考虑到愿意接受惩罚方案的参与者有可能从一开始就有较高的戒烟积极性,仍需对上述数字加以校正。Even after that adjustment, those who signed up for the penalty were nearly twice as likely to quit as those who opted for pure rewards, and five times as likely to quit as those who just got free counseling or nicotine replacement therapy. Even so, the largest overall effect was among the group that was assigned to pure rewards, simply because so many more people took part.但即使经过这么一番校正,愿意接受惩罚方案的参与者戒烟的可能性仍是选择单纯奖励方案者的近两倍,是只接受免费咨询或尼古丁替代疗法者的五倍。纵然如此,整体效果最好的仍要数纯奖励组,因为这组的参与者人数要多得多。“This is an original set of findings,” said Cass R. Sunstein, a Harvard law professor who helped develop some influential ideas in the field of behavioral economics, notably that if the social environment can be changed — for example, by posting simple warnings — people can be nudged into better behavior. “They could be applied to many health issues, like alcoholism, or whenever people face serious self-control problems.”哈佛大学法学院的教授卡斯·R·桑斯坦( Cass R. Sunstein)说:“这些发现很有独创性,可以应用于酗酒等很多健康问题,或是人面临严重自我控制问题的时候。”桑斯坦教授曾帮助建立起行为经济学领域的某些深具影响力的观点,其中特别值得一提的是:改变社会环境(例如,张贴简单的警告)可以敦促人们改善自己的行为。Professor Sunstein, who oversaw regulatory policy for the Obama administration from 2009 to 2012 and now directs the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy at Harvard, wrote an opinion article on the study, but was not involved in it.2009年至2012年期间,他负责了奥巴马政府的管控政策,现在是哈佛大学行为经济学和公共政策项目(Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy)负责人。他为上文介绍的研究撰写过文章,但并没有实际参与其中。Over all, success eluded most of the study participants. More than 80 percent of smokers in the most popular pure rewards group were still smoking at the end of the study. Even so, researchers say, their success rate was far greater than for those who got the traditional treatment, signaling that there could be substantial public health benefits in offering financial incentives.总体而言,大多数研究参与者都没能成功戒烟。在研究结束时,最受欢迎的纯奖励组中有超过80%的吸烟者依旧在吸烟。但研究人员表示,即便如此,他们的成功率仍远远超过了传统疗法,这表明提供经济奖励有可能带来重大的公共卫生效益。And even a small decline could have a big health effect. Smoking is the largest cause of preventable death in the ed States. Diseases linked to it kill more than 480,000 Americans a year.在美国,吸烟是可预防性死亡的首要原因。每年因吸烟相关疾病致死的美国人超过48万人。因此,哪怕是吸烟率的小小降低也将带来巨大的健康效应。 /201509/399512China has traditionally been famous for its fragrant teas, but the country is emerging as a key Asian producer of a different beverage: quality arabica coffee.在传统上,中国以出产芳香的茶叶而闻名。如今,中国却日渐成为阿拉比卡咖啡豆(arabica,亦称小粒咖啡)这种截然不同的饮品在亚洲的重要生产国。Known for its light body and fruity aroma, the coffee from the southwestern province of Yunnan has become a staple of European arabica blends, say international commodity traders and roasters.这种咖啡豆以轻巧的形体和芬芳的果香闻名于世。国际大宗商品交易商和烘焙商表示,产自中国西南省份云南省的阿拉比卡咖啡豆,已成为欧洲阿拉比卡咖啡的主要混合原料。“The mild taste and aroma is similar to the beans from Honduras or Guatemala,” said Wouter DeSmet, head of Nestlé’s coffee agricultural services team in China.雀巢(Nestlé)在华咖啡农业务团队主管沃特#8226;德梅(Wouter DeSmet)表示:“那种清淡的口感和芳香与产自洪都拉斯和危地马拉的咖啡豆十分类似。”An increasing number of Yunnan farmers are turning to coffee, which offers higher returns compared with other crops. In 2012, farmers’ income from coffee was double that for tea grown on the same acreage, according to Mr DeSmet.与其他作物相比,咖啡更高的回报正促使越来越多的云南农民转种咖啡。按照德梅的说法,2012年农民从咖啡中获得的收入是同等种植面积下茶叶的两倍。Nestlé started operations in Yunnan in the late 1980s, offering training and purchasing coffee from growers. Since 2005, the number of its suppliers has grown from 147 to 2,000.上世纪80年代末,雀巢在云南开展业务,向咖啡种植者提供培训务,并收购他们的咖啡。自2005年以来,该公司供应商的数目已从147家增加到2000家。For the whole Yunnan region, known for its lush hills, 80,000 farmers grow the crop, with many now growing both tea and coffee. The bulk of coffee produced in Asia – mainly in Vietnam and Indonesia – is robusta, the lower quality bean used in instant coffee.整个云南地区以草木繁盛的山丘而闻名,该地区种植咖啡的农民有8万人,许多人如今同时种植着茶叶和咖啡。目前,亚洲生产的咖啡主要产自越南和印尼,以罗布斯塔(robusta)咖啡豆为主,这是一种用来生产速溶咖啡的较低品质咖啡豆。Arabica, mainly used in cappuccinos and espressos, was introduced into Yunnan by a French missionary in the late 1880s. But coffee production only took off 100 years later with the investment of the Chinese government and the UN Development Programme.相比之下,阿拉比卡咖啡豆则主要用于制作卡布奇诺和浓缩咖啡(espresso)。这种咖啡豆是在19世纪80年代末,由一位法国传教士引入云南的。然而,直到一百年后,咖啡产量才在中国政府和联合国开发计划署(UN Development Programme)的投资下迅速提高起来。Chinese coffee exports have grown steadily over the past decade, with volumes rising from 137,000 60kg bags in 1998 to 1.1m 60kg bags in 2012 – on a par with Costa Rica and just under 1 per cent of the world total.过去十年里,中国咖啡出口量一直在稳步增长,从1998年的13.7万袋(每袋60公斤)增长至2012年的110万袋。这与哥斯达黎加的出口量相等,占全球总出口量的比例略低于1%。In order to source their coffee, international coffee groups and commodity traders are starting to set up operations in Yunnan, which borders Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar.为采购咖啡,国际咖啡集团和大宗商品交易商正着手在毗邻越南、老挝和缅甸的云南省设立业务。Volcafe, the Swiss coffee trading arm of commodity house EDamp;F Man, is the latest company to enter a procurement and processing joint venture agreement with Simao Arabicasm Coffee Company, a local group. They follow Starbucks, which formed a venture with Yunnan based agribusiness Ai Ni Group in 2012.最新一家与云南当地企业达成咖啡采购和加工合资协议的企业是瑞士的Volcafe公司。该公司是大宗商品交易商EDamp;F Man旗下的咖啡交易公司。和它达成合资协议的云南当地企业名为思茅阿拉比卡星咖啡公司(Simao Arabicasm Coffee Company)。在它们之前,星巴克(Starbucks)在2012年与云南爱伲农牧集团(Ai Ni Group)组建了合资公司。The boom in production comes as coffee drinking in China is growing at about 15 per cent a year, compared with about 2 per cent for the world.就在咖啡产量迅猛增长的同时,中国的咖啡饮用量也在以每年约15%的幅度快速增长。相比之下,全球咖啡饮用量的增速只有大约2%。 /201411/340813

Few Chinese take paid leave中国很少有人带薪休假A large amount of Chinese employees refuse to take paid leave, a legal right for workers stipulated by Chinese law, a new survey has found.我国法律规定职工享有带薪休假的合法权利,但很多职工拒绝享受带薪假。According to a nationwide survey conducted by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, around 50% of Chinese employees choose not to take paid leave.人社部一项全国性调查显示,目前我国有50%左右的职工选择不休带薪假。In a bid to find out why, the People#39;s Daily recently interviewed several employees in different employment settings. The newspaper found interviewees who work for government organs, institutions and State-owned enterprises reluctantly give up their rights due to concerns that asking for paid leave might ;leave bosses the bad impression of being lazy; and influence future job promotions.为找原因,《人民日报》近日采访了不同职业背景的一些职工,发现在政府部门、事业单位和国有企业工作的受访者由于担心要求休带薪假可能会给老板留下;偷懒;的坏印象,影响未来工作晋升而不情愿地放弃休假的权利。In other jobs, such as sales, employees forego paid leave to avoid smaller bonuses, as only basic salary is given during that time.对于其它工作,如销售,职工放弃带薪休假是为了避免奖金的缩水,因为带薪休假期间只能拿底薪。 /201507/389138A contract has been signed between the Chinese and the US parties to build a Universal Studios theme park in Beijing’s east suburban district of Tongzhou, the newly confirmed second administrative center of the city, Beijing Youth Daily reported Monday.据《北京青年报》周一报道,中美双方正式签署在北京东部郊区通州建立环球主题公园的合约,而通州近期确认为北京的第二管理中心。The Beijing Universal Studios project was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in September 2014 and was directly led by the Beijing government. Li Shixiang, Member of Standing Committee of CPC Beijing Committee and executive vice-mayor of Beijing, attended the signing ceremony at New York headquarter of the US cable company NUniversal on Sunday.2014年9月,北京环球影城项目经国家发改委批准并直接由北京政府领导。周日,市委常委、常务副市长李士祥出席在康卡斯特N环球集团纽约总部举行的签约仪式。According to the contract, a joint venture company will be set up to carry out the construction. The park, expected to open in 2019, covers 2.02 million square meters of floor space and is set to attract a total investment of 50 billion yuan (.98 billion).合约表明,将建立一个中外合资公司进行施工。主题公园有望于2019年开放,占地面积达202万平方米,将吸引总投资500亿元人民币(79.8亿美元)。The Universal Studios theme parks boast of offering a behind–the-scene look at movie making. Its Beijing location, the sixth of its kind in the world and the third in Asia, will become the largest one.据悉,环球影城主题公园将向游客展示电影幕后制作。北京环球主题公园是环球世界第六个也是亚洲第三个主题公园,将是最大的环球主题公园。The first stage of the project includes a Universal CityWalk retail-entertainment complex and the world’s first Universal-themed resort hotel, both being completed in five years. Another theme park, a water park and five other resort hotels are planned to be built in the second stage.项目一期工程包括零售综合环球商业街和世上第一家环球主题度假酒店,预计五年内完成。项目二期工程包括第二主题公园、水上乐园和另外五座度假酒店。Traditional and modern Chinese culture elements have been incorporated in the planning to boost the city’s tourist appeal to foreign visitors, according to the culture and tourism administration bureau of Tongzhou district.据通州区的文化旅游表示,传统与现代中国文化话元素已纳入计划,从而提升城市对外国游客的吸引力。The US side also promised to put the world’s best and popular entertainment projects into the Beijing Universal Studios, with the Hollywood filmmaker Steven Spielberg involved in the design of the park.美方曾表示,将把全世界最好和最受欢迎的项目放在北京,好莱坞著名导演史蒂芬·斯皮尔伯格将参与北京环球主题公园的设计。Subway Line 7 will be extended to reach the park and put into use before the opening to meet the demand of the tourists.地铁7号线将延伸至主题公园,并在公园开放前投入使用以满足游客的需求。Universal Studios now operates five theme parks - in Los Angeles, Orlando, Osaka and Singapore.环球影城目前有五个主题公园——在洛杉矶、奥兰多、大阪和新加坡。 /201509/399167

Shinzo Abe’s poll ratings are at their lowest since taking up his second spell in office in 2012 as the Japanese prime minister’s push for national security reforms threatens his economic programme.日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)大力推行的国家安全改革正威胁到他的经济计划。受此影响,安倍的民意持率创下他2012年第二次担任首相以来的新低。A Nippon Television poll at the weekend found support for Mr Abe at just 41 per cent, down 2.5 points on the previous month, while a Jiji poll showed a 2.2 point drop in support to 46 per cent.上周末,日本电视台(Nippon Television)展开的民意调查显示,安倍的持率只有41%,比上月下降了2.5个百分点。日本时事通信社(Jiji)展开的民意调查则显示,安倍的持率下降了2.2个百分点,至46%。The slide in Mr Abe’s approval ratings shows the risk to his economic reforms — which investors are counting on to revive the economy — if he turns the electorate against him with unpopular constitutional changes.安倍持率下滑表明,如果其不受欢迎的修宪令选民纷纷背弃他,他的经济改革将面临风险。目前,投资者正指望安倍的经济改革重振日本经济。“Since Mr Abe began his second term [in 2012], he’s been doing the things he has to rather than the things he wants to,” said Masatoshi Honda, professor of political science at Kinjo University.金城大学(Kinjo University)政治学教授本田雅俊(Masatoshi Honda)表示:“自(2012年)安倍开始其第二任期以来,他一直在做他不得不做的事,而不是做他想做的事。”That focus on economic revival and ending deflation has strong public support, but Mr Abe’s passion for reforming Japan’s pacifist constitution does not, and Mr Honda said the voters were sending the prime minister a warning.安倍对经济复苏和终结通缩的关注让他赢得了公众的大力持,但他对修改日本和平宪法的热情却没有给他带来这种持。本田表示,选民是在通过民调向安倍发出警告。“Now Mr Abe is doing the things he wants to rather than the things he must and it’s creating a perception gap with the public,” he said.他说:“现在安倍在做他想做的事,而不是他必须做的事。这导致他与公众产生了认知分歧。”While Mr Abe’s political position is still strong, with no viable alternative leader either within his party or without, the proposed security laws brought thousands of demonstrators on to the streets of Tokyo at the weekend.由于不论是在党内还是在党外都找不到合适的备选领导人,安倍目前的政治地位依然稳固。尽管如此,拟议中的安保法还是导致成千上万的示威者在上周末走上东京街头。The national security laws would enact Mr Abe’s reinterpretation of the constitution last year, allowing Japan to fight in defence of its allies. The Nippon Television poll shows 62.5 per cent of the public oppose the change.安保法将体现安倍去年对日本宪法的重新解读,允许日本为保护盟友而动用武力。日本电视台的调查显示,62.5%的日本民众反对这一变革。 /201506/380845HONG KONG — The wide new boulevards that cut across parts of Weifang in eastern China are largely free of traffic, a quiet reminder of the coastal city’s big ambitions.香港——这条簇新的大马路径直穿过中国东部城市潍坊,基本上没什么车,无声地彰显着这个沿海城市的雄心壮志。“It’s empty here, and I always come here to dry my wheat,” said a 77-year-old farmer surnamed Zhang who, along with his wife and son, was sping grain on a sidewalk in one of the city’s newer districts on a recent summer day.“这里很空,我一直到这儿晒麦子,”77岁的农民张某说。最近的一个夏日,他和妻子、儿子在该市新区的人行道上铺散麦粒。Weifang is quickly outgrowing its rural roots, and officials see a wave of urbanization reshaping the local economy for years to come. Across the city, plans are underway for billions of dollars of major public projects, including new highways, high-speed rail lines, water treatment plants, schools and health care facilities.潍坊正在迅速改变它的农村性质,官员们认为城镇化浪潮将在未来几年改变当地经济。全市各地正在开展价值数十亿美元的大型公共项目,比如新公路、高速铁路、自来水处理厂、学校及卫生设施。There is just one hitch: Weifang can’t pay for all the projects.他们只有一个难题:潍坊无力承担所有项目的费用。In the past, city officials would have turned to low-cost loans from state-owned banks, as the national government encouraged local spending to spur economic growth. But the Chinese leadership, worried about the country’s ballooning debt problem, is backing away from that strategy.过去,市政府官员会通过国有获得低成本贷款,因为中央政府鼓励地方政府加大开刺激经济增长。但中国领导层担心不断膨胀的债务问题,正在撤销这一策略。Like hundreds of cities across China, Weifang is now wooing deep-pocketed private investors, both local and overseas, to help foot the bill for public infrastructure and services. Behind the spot where Mr. Zhang dries his wheat, a gleaming new hospital dominates the skyline, built in part with outside capital.与全国数以百计的城市一样,潍坊正在努力吸引本地及海外财力雄厚的私人投资者,帮助政府付建造公共基础设施和开展务项目的费用。在张某的晒谷场后面耸立着一栋崭新的医院大楼,修建这栋参天大楼的资金部分来自外部。“If the project suits the public-private partnership model, we will try to fund it that way,” said Liu Xitian, the deputy director of Weifang’s finance bureau. “The next step will be to improve public services. We will release lots of projects in that area.”“适合搞PPP(public-private partnership model,公共私营合作模式——编者注)的我们就会通过PPP这种方式来融资,”潍坊市财政局副局长刘锡田说。“下一步就是提升公共务,[展开]提升性的务项目,下一步会有很多项目推出。”The push reflects the precarious financial state of many cities and towns.这种行动反映了很多城镇不稳定的财务状况。Although the country escaped the worst of the global financial crisis six years ago, it did so on the back of a borrowing binge by local governments, which spent heavily on new but often unprofitable infrastructure projects. Now, many local governments are mired in debt.虽然中国在六年前避开了最为严重的全球金融危机,但当时是靠地方政府大量借贷,用于修建全新但通常无利可图的基础设施。如今,很多地方政府深陷债务泥潭。In Weifang, a city known for seafood processing and an annual kite-flying festival, rapid urbanization over the last decade has saddled the local government with debts totaling 88.4 billion renminbi, or .2 billion, as of June 2013, the most recent data available.在潍坊这个以海鲜加工和一年一度的风筝节而闻名的城市,过去十年快速的城镇化进程给当地政府带来了大量债务,截至2013年6月,潍坊政府的总债务为884亿元人民币,这是可以获得的最新数据。Since 2007, China’s overall local government debt has risen at an annual rate of 27 percent. It now totals almost trillion, according to estimates from the consulting firm McKinsey amp; Company.自2007年以来,中国地方政府总债务的年增长率达到了27%。根据咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey amp; Company)的估计,地方政府债务总额目前接近三万亿美元(约合18.6万亿元人民币)。Companies, too, have gorged on cheap credit in recent years. Altogether, China’s total debt stands at 282 percent of its gross domestic product — a high level that raises the risk of a financial crisis should borrowers prove unable to repay and a wave of defaults ensue.公司近些年来也获得大量低息贷款。中国的总债务是国内生产总值的282%,如此高的债务水平,一旦借款人最终无法偿还贷款,可能引发金融危机和违约浪潮。It has created a conundrum for the country. China’s leaders want to wean the country from this debt-fueled growth model. But they also need to continue stimulating the economy, particularly at a time when growth is slowing.这给中国带来了一个难题。中国领导人希望中国摆脱这种依赖债务推动经济增长的模式。但他们还需要继续刺激经济发展,特别是在增长放缓的时期。Part of Beijing’s solution has been to help local governments lower their borrowing costs through refinancing. Local government-controlled companies that are struggling to pay bonds are being encouraged to exchange them for new loans at lower interest rates from state-run banks. China’s Ministry of Finance recently expanded this local government debt refinancing program to 3 trillion renminbi, or nearly 0 billion, up from 1 trillion renminbi just a few months ago.北京的部分解决方案是通过再次融资帮助地方政府降低借贷成本。由地方政府控制的难以偿还债券的公司被鼓励以债券作为交换条件,获得国有提供的利率较低的新贷款。中国财政部最近将地方政府债务再融资计划的规模增加至三万亿元人民币,而几个月前这一计划的规模只有一万亿元人民币。China has also begun a national campaign to encourage private investment in local infrastructure projects.中国还开始在全国鼓励私人投资地方基础设施项目。In May, the nation’s top economic planning agency released a list of more than 1,000 projects worth 2 trillion renminbi that local governments across the country are seeking to finance with outside investment. Analysts estimate that is on top of roughly 1,500 other projects worth 3 trillion renminbi that had been previously announced by the local authorities.今年5月,中国最高经济规划机构公布了一份包含1000多个项目的清单,这些项目总共价值两万亿美元人民币,全国各地的地方政府寻求获得外部投资来开展这些项目。此外分析人士估计,地方政府此前共公布了大约1500个项目,价值三万亿元人民币。A decade ago, the MTR Corporation, the Hong Kong subway operator, was an investor in Beijing’s fourth metro line. Beijing had won the right to host the 2008 Summer Olympics and was expanding its transport network at a blinding pace.十年前,香港地铁运营商港铁公司(MTR Corporation)是北京地铁4号线的投资方之一。当时北京赢得了2008年夏季奥运会的举办权,需要对交通网络进行大规模扩张。By the time it opened in 2009, passenger flows on the new line were much higher and revenue much lower than either party had forecast. This prompted huge subsidy payments from the Beijing government to the MTR, which did not sit well with local officials.4号线在2009年投入运行的时候,其客流量之大,营收之低,远出乎任何一方的预期。北京市政府需要为港铁公司提供巨额补贴,该市官员对此难以接受。So city officials simply rewrote the contract. The new terms reduced subsidy payments to the MTR, and were on balance more favorable to the city government. MTR, as the minority shareholder, had little room to object.因此北京市官员直接改写了合同。新的条款减少了对港铁公司的补贴,更加有利于北京市政府。作为少数股东,港铁公司几乎没有反对之力。Ren Yuhang, general manager of the finance department at Beijing Infrastructure Investment, the city government company charged with financing subway investment, compared such deals to a marriage.北京市基础设施投资公司是负责融资修建地铁的市政府公司,其财政部门总经理任宇航把这样的交易比作婚姻。“It takes a lot of negotiation and compromise,” he said.“这需要大量谈判和妥协,”他说。Xie Hua, a deputy manager at the MTR in charge of business development in China, said local officials often failed to appreciate the long duration of rail partnerships, which can extend to 30 years. Also, some local officials tend to focus too narrowly on just getting money.港铁公司负责中国业务发展的副经理谢华说,当地官员常常不能体会长期铁路合作关系的价值,这种关系可以持续30年之久。此外,一些地方官员往往把目光过于狭隘地集中在赚钱上。Foreign investors bring expertise and they want a say in how a project is run, but local officials often reply that their “biggest problem right now is funding,” Mr. Xie said. “The two sides have mismatched solutions.”境外投资者带来了专业知识,也希望对项目运营拥有一定的话语权。不过,地方官员对此的回答往往是,他们“眼下最大的问题就是融资,”谢华说。“所以双方的解决方式并不对等。”Such experiences, say analysts, could limit the appetite of foreign investors.分析人士称,类似的经历或许会抑制境外投资者的胃口。“The initial wave of all these projects definitely is going to be more suited to the local players,” said Stephen Ip, a partner and the head of government and infrastructure business at KPMG China, based in Shanghai. Foreign investors “can’t really make the leap of faith at the moment.”“第一批这样的项目肯定是更适合当地的参与者,”驻上海的毕马威中国(KPMG China)政府机构和基建行业主管合伙人叶伟成(Stephen Ip)表示。境外投资者“目前并不能放手一搏”。In Weifang, the local government has a list of nearly 70 projects it hopes to finance through the private-partnership model, for a total investment of 124 billion renminbi — about a quarter of the city’s economic output.在潍坊,地方政府列出了一个包含近70个项目的清单,希望通过公私合作模式帮它们筹集1240亿元人民币的总投资。这一金额大约相当于该市经济产出的四分之一。Officials hope the money will help the city cope with rapid transformation. Farmland is giving way to new roads, rail lines and other large-scale infrastructure projects. A huge industrial park on the outskirts of town is busy with construction activity, but it is also dotted with symbols of previous booms that have fizzled.官员希望,这笔钱能够帮助潍坊应对快速的变化。农田正让位于新的道路和铁路线等大规模基础设施建设项目。郊区有一座大型工业园,建设工作开展得如火如荼。不过,这里也不时可以看到之前的几轮开发热潮消退后留下的痕迹。Part of the idea behind bringing in private investment is to help offset a slowdown in other parts of the local economy, including real estate. Evidence of the property market slump can be seen in half-finished projects in the same industrial park, like Jinhe Aristocratic Family, a luxury housing development.引入私人投资的部分想法是要帮忙缓解地方经济中其他一些领域的放缓,包括房地产业。在这座工业园里,就能通过停工的项目看到楼市滑坡的据,比如豪华公寓开发项目“顺德·金和世家”。The six-tower complex was supposed to be completed this year, but the developer ran out of money. Dormant construction cranes tower over the site. Wild grass has since overtaken much of the freshly cleared earth.这片由六栋高楼组成的住宅区本应今年完工,却遭遇了开发商资金枯竭的问题。工地上的起重机处于闲置状态。不久前清理的土地上,不少地方长了野草。“If you are interested, I would suggest you purchase after the construction restarts,” said a lone security guard living at the Jinhe site, declining to give his name.“如果想买,要我说最好等到重新开工以后,”工地上唯一的那名保安说。他不愿透露自己的姓名。The falling property market has cut deeply into local coffers. In Weifang, land sales, which account for a major share of the city’s income, plunged 40 percent last year, according to figures from Deutsche Bank.楼市下滑对地方财政影响巨大。在潍坊,卖地的进账占到全市财政收入的一大块。然而,根据德意志(Deutsche Bank)提供的数据,该市去年的卖地收入大降40%。Weifang officials had some early success in attracting private capital.在吸引私人资金方面,潍坊官员取得了一些初步成就。The new hospital, built with funding from Sunshine Insurance, a company based in Beijing, aims to be the biggest medical facility in Shandong Province. The insurer, which this year spent 0 million to buy the Baccarat Hotel in New York, has local connections. The company’s chairman, Zhang Weigong, is a native of Weifang.那家新医院的建设资金来自阳光保险集团,意图成为山东省内规模最大的医疗机构。阳光保险的总部位于北京,今年耗资2.3亿美元收购了纽约的巴卡拉酒店(Baccarat Hotel)。公司与潍坊有一定的联系——董事长张维功就来自这里。One of the biggest projects in Weifang is the local section of a new high-speed rail line connecting the major cities of Jinan and Qingdao. It is the country’s first high-speed rail project to secure private financing.潍坊规模最大的项目之一是一段高铁线路。这条高铁将把两大城市济南和青岛联接起来,是中国首个得到私人融资的高铁项目。But the definition of private is a bit stretched, in some cases.不过,在部分情况下,“私人”的概念有些扩大了。The Weifang government is responsible for 4 billion renminbi of the 26 billion renminbi budget for the 147-kilometer, or 90-mile, portion that will run through the city. The main outside investor is the Postal Savings Bank of China, a sprawling, state-owned bank. Temasek Holdings, the Singapore state investment firm, has also agreed to participate in funding at the provincial level, according to local officials.这条铁路线的潍坊段长147千米,预算260亿元人民币,而市政府将提供40亿元。主要的外部投资者是庞大的国有企业中国邮政储蓄。根据地方官员的说法,新加坡的国有投资公司淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)也同意参与该项目的省级融资。Even if the enthusiasm of private investors fails to keep pace, the force of urbanization seems unlikely to slow.就算私人投资者的热情滞后,城镇化的力量也似乎不可阻挡。In the sleepy village of Beiying on the outskirts of Weifang, a farmer who gave his surname as Pei is worried that the rail project will force him out of his home.在潍坊郊外宁静的北营村,一名裴姓农民担心,高铁项目会让他失去家里的房子。“I was born in this village and have worked as a farmer my whole life,” said Mr. Pei, 50, who grows fruits and vegetables a few hundred yards from where construction on the rail line will start soon. “What else can I do if I don’t farm?”“我生在村里,在这里当了一辈子农民,”50岁的老裴说。他种植蔬果的地方离马上就要开工的高铁工地只有几百米。“不种地我还能干什么去?” /201508/391411Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made. This famous remark of the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, is particularly relevant to economists. “Homo economicus” is far-sighted, rational and self-interested. Real human beings are none of these things. We are bundles of emotions, not calculating machines. This matters.“人性这根曲木,绝然造不出任何笔直的东西。”经济学家尤其应该听听德国哲学家伊曼努尔#8226;康德(Immanuel Kant)的这句名言。“经济人”有远见、理性而且自私。真正的人跟经济人完全不一样。我们感情充沛,不是精于计算的机器。这非常关键。The World Bank’s latest World Development Report examines this territory. It notes that “behavioural economics” alters our view of human behaviour in three ways: first, most of our thinking is not deliberative, but automatic; second, it is socially conditioned; and, third, it is shaped by inaccurate mental models.世界(World Bank)在其发布的最新一期《世界发展报告》(World Development Report)中研究了该领域。它指出,“行为经济学”从3个方面改变了我们对人类行为的看法:首先,我们的大部分想法并非经过深思熟虑,而是自动产生的;其次,它受到社会的制约;第三,它脱胎于不精确的思维模式。The Nobel laureate, Daniel Kahneman, explored the idea that we think in two different ways in his 2011 bookThinking, Fast and Slow. The need for an automatic system is evident. Our ancestors did not have the time to work out answers to life’s challenges from first principles. They acquired automatic responses and a cultural predisposition towards rules of thumb. We inherited both these traits. Thus, we are influenced by how a problem is framed.诺贝尔奖得主丹尼尔#8226;卡内曼(Daniel Kahneman)在其2011年出版的《思维,快慢有别》(Thinking, Fast and Slow)一书中探讨了人类有两种不同思维方式的观点。拥有一种自动反应的思维体系显然是必要的。我们的祖先没时间从基本原则中寻找解决生活挑战的办法。他们获得了自动反应的本领,也形成了听从经验法则的文化倾向。这两种特质我们都继承了。因此,我们会受问题提出方式的影响。Another characteristic is “confirmation bias” — the tendency to interpret new information as support for pre-existing beliefs. We also suffer from loss aversion, fierce resistance to losing what one aly has. For our ancestors, on the margin of survival, that made sense.另一个特征是“确认偏误”(confirmation bias)——即将新信息解读为能够持已有观点的倾向。我们还有“厌恶损失”(loss aversion)的倾向,即强烈抗拒失去我们已经拥有的东西。对我们只能勉强维持生存的祖先来说,这种倾向非常明智。The fact that humans are intensely social is clear. Even the idea that we are autonomous is itself socially conditioned. We are also far from solely self-interested. A bad consequence of the power of norms is that societies may be stuck in destructive patterns of behaviour. Nepotism and corruption are examples. If they are entrenched, it may be difficult (or dangerous) for individuals not to participate. But social norms can also be valuable. Trust is a valuable norm. It rests on one of humanity’s strongest behaviours: conditional co-operation. People will punish free-riders even when it costs them to do so. This trait strengthens groups and so must raise members’ ability to survive.人类具有强烈的社会性,这是显而易见的。就连我们是独立的个体这个想法本身,也是受到社会制约的。我们也绝非完全自私。社会规范的强大威力带来的一个糟糕后果是,社会可能陷入消极的行为模式。裙带关系和腐败就是例。如果裙带关系或腐败根深蒂固,个人不参与其中或许就很困难(或危险)。但社会规范也可能是有用的。信任是一种有用的规范。它依赖于人类最擅长的行为之一:有条件的合作。人们将会惩罚搭便车者,即便惩罚他们要付出代价。这种特质增强了团队的凝聚力,从而肯定会提高团队成员的生存能力。Mental models are essential. Some seem to be inbuilt; and some can be damaging — as well as productive. Ideas about “us” and “them”, reinforced by social norms, may well lead to results that range from the merely unfair to the catastrophic. Equally important may be mental models that create self-fulfilling expectations of who will succeed and who will fail. There is evidence, notes the WDR, that mental models rooted in history may shape people’s view of the world for centuries: caste is an example. Such mental models survive because they are reproduced socially and become part of the automatic rather than the deliberative system. They influence not just our perceptions of others, but perceptions of ourselves.思维模式非常关键。有些似乎是人内在固有的,此外,有些模式可能同时具有创造性和破坏性。关于“我们”和“他们”的观念如果经过社会规范的强化,很可能导致各种各样的结果,从仅仅是不公平的,到酿成灾难的。有些思维模式能够产生有关谁将成功、谁将失败的预期(并且这种预期具有自我实现的能力),这些思维模式同样重要。《世界发展报告》指出,有据表明,有深厚历史根源的思维模式可能决定人们数百年的世界观:种姓制度就是一个例子。此类思维模式之所以经久不衰,是因为它们在社会上不断繁殖,成为了一种自动(而非经过深思熟虑)的反应。它们不仅影响我们对其他人的看法,还影响我们对自己的看法。To illustrate the relevance of these realities, the report analyses the policy challenges of poverty, early childhood development, household finance, productivity, health and climate change.为了表明这些研究与现实密切相关,该报告还分析了贫穷、幼儿期发展、家庭财务、生产率、健康和气候变化的政策挑战。On household finance, for example, the report notes that it makes a difference whether would-be borrowers are told explicitly how much more expensive is a payday loan than an equivalent loan on a credit card. Revealing the status of low-caste boys in a mixed-caste classroom depresses the performance of students from lower castes compared with what happens if caste is not revealed. The boys respond to how they are presented. Again, poverty is not just a lack of material resources:it undermines the ability to think deliberately.例如,在家庭财务方面,该报告指出,潜在借款者是否被明确告知发薪日贷款(payday loan,一种小额、短期的高利贷,用于贷款人下一次发薪之前临时急用——译者注)与等额信用卡贷款相比有多么昂贵,结果将大为不同。如果在一个种姓混杂的班级里让大家知道谁是低种姓学生,那么低种姓学生的表现就会不如其身份没有暴露时的表现。别人如何介绍自己,会影响这些男孩的表现。同样,贫穷不仅仅是物质资源的匮乏:它还削弱一个人审慎思考的能力。The way people think may also affect their productivity. An example is the benefits of contracts that penalise a worker for failing to meet the output targets she has chosen for herself. This is a way of closing the gap between good intentions and actual performance, such as when we agree to put money in the swearbox when we curse. We often disappoint ourselves. We may wish to bind ourselves to better behaviour, like Odysseus to his mast.人们的思考方式也可能影响他们的生产效率。一个例子是,签订这样的合同有不错的效果:约定工人如果未能完成自己选择的产量目标就会受到惩罚。要消除良好意愿与实际表现的差距,这是一种方法,比如我们同意只要我们骂人就要往罚款箱里投钱。我们常常让自己失望。我们可能希望约束自己、迫使自己表现得更好,就像奥德修斯(Odysseus)让人把自己捆在桅杆上(以抵挡海妖歌声的诱惑)那样。Health creates vital examples. One is the importance of mental models. An obvious one is the anti-vaccination hysteria. Another, illustrated by the WDR, is the tendency of poor women to believe that the right treatment for diarrhoea is to cut fluid intake, to stop their child “leaking”. Another is the tendency of people to be put off by even a very small charge for health products. The explanation for the reluctance to pay anything may, it suggests, be because free provision underpins the norm that everybody ought to take the medicine.健康领域产生了一些重要的例子,其中之一是思维模式的重要性。一种明显的思维模式是非理性地反对接种疫苗。《世界发展报告》举出的另一种思维模式是,贫穷的妇女往往认为,腹泻的正确治疗方法是减少液体的摄入,这样他们的孩子就不再“拉稀”。还有一种思维模式是,人们往往不愿购买收费的健康产品,哪怕金额极低。报告称,人们之所以一分钱都不愿花,可能是因为,免费提供才符合有难同当的社会规范。These then are intriguing examples of a more nuanced approach to policy. Another area where a narrow focus only on incentives is likely to be misleading is financial regulation. Many economists believe that dysfunctional behaviour in financial markets is due solely to distorted incentives: deposit insurance, the perception that institutions are “too big to fail” and a host of other explicit and implicit subsidies. Equally important, however, are behavioural norms, such as the view that the primary duty of bankers is to themselves not their customers; or inappropriate mental models, such as the widesp pre-crisis belief that house prices could not fall across the US. Regulation needs to be built on an understanding of such human frailties. It must focus on norms and groupthink, as well as on distorted incentives.因此这些有趣的例子表明了政策手段有必要更加细致。另一个关键领域是金融监管,在这一领域中,如果仅仅关注于激励就可能导致误解。许多经济学家相信,金融市场中的失灵行为完全是扭曲的动机造成的,比如:存款保险、机构“太大而不能倒闭”的观念,以及其他众多显性和隐性补贴。然而,同样重要的是社会行为规范,比如认为家主要应该对他们自己、而不是客户负责的观点;或者不适当的思维模式,比如危机前人们普遍认为,美国的房价不会普跌。监管需要建立在了解此类人性弱点的基础之上。它必须不仅关注于扭曲的动机,还关注于社会规范和群体迷思(groupthink)。How far should policy be based on these perceptions, particularly since those who make policy are, as the WDR admits, prone to all sorts of biases in their own decision-making? We are all made of Kant’s crooked timber: nobody has godlike wisdom and self-control.政策应该在多大程度上以这些观念为基础?尤其是正如《世界发展报告》承认的那样,那些制定政策的人士往往对他们自己的决策存在各种各样的偏见。我们全都由康德所说的“曲木”制成:没有人有上帝那样的智慧和自制力。Yet policy must be made. It is surely better to make well-informed and realistic policy than base it on a grossly simplistic view of our true capacities. Moreover, nudging people in the direction they aly want to go — by encouraging them to save, learn, behave healthily or bring up their children better — is hardly a gross violation of liberty. Yet encouragement should not slide too easily into coercion. Adults are not to be treated as children. That, too, is a social norm and quite a fundamental one.然而政策是必须制定的。充分了解相关信息、从现实出发制定政策,肯定要比基于对我们真实能力的过分简单化理解制定政策要好。此外,通过鼓励人们储蓄、学习、过健康生活或更好地抚育子女,推动人们朝他们本来就希望的方向前进,这不能说是严重侵犯自由。然而,鼓励不应轻易地演变为强制。不应把成年人当做小孩对待。那也是一种社会规范,而且还是相当根深蒂固的一种。 /201501/355489

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