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连云港做无痛人流需要多少钱安心问答

2019年07月24日 15:23:07 | 作者:快乐爱问 | 来源:新华社
Sara Frisk never thought about traveling to Mexico City until a stranger named Pilar Mu#241;oz invited her. Ms. Mu#241;oz, a publicist for designers, lives in a 4,300-square-foot penthouse apartment with glass walls and luscious green views. The home has richly grained wood floors, trim modern sofas and a kitchen island you could sacrifice an ox on.萨拉·弗里斯克(Sara Frisk)从没想过去墨西哥城,直到一个叫皮拉尔·穆尼奥斯(Pilar Mu#241;oz)的陌生人邀请了她。穆尼奥斯是一名为设计师务的公关人员,居住在一套4300平方英尺(约合399平方米)的顶层公寓中。这套公寓里有玻璃墙,坐拥令人舒心的绿色景观,铺设着纹理丰富的木地板,配备了精致现代的沙发,还有一个厨房岛台,你甚至可以在上面献祭一头公牛。“If I was going to Mexico, I wanted to be on the water, but that house is completely amazing,” said Ms. Frisk, a graphic designer and design consultant in the West Town neighborhood of Chicago.“我要是去墨西哥的话,就想去水上玩,但是那套房子太惊艳了。”弗里斯克说。她是一名平面设计师兼设计顾问,住在芝加哥的西镇(West Town)社区。She had lost her heart on Behomm, an 18-month-old home-exchange website that has the comeliness of a shelter magazine, with one big difference: Viewers don’t just drool over beautiful properties; they stay in them.她已经迷上了住宅交换网站——Behomm。该网站已有18个月的历史,和家居杂志一样充斥着精美的图片,但又与杂志有一个重大区别:访客不只是对着美宅流口水;他们还可以入住其中。Ms. Frisk had planned to travel over Thanksgiving and couldn’t make the timing work for the Mexico City dream loft (she ended up in the Berlin abode of two architects). Now she’s trying to arrange to stay there with a group of friends.弗里斯克本打算在感恩节出门旅行,但是匀不出时间去墨西哥城的梦幻之屋了 (结果她入住了两位建筑师在柏林的住所)。现在,她正试图组织一帮朋友跟她一起住到那去。“It feels a lot more spontaneous planning a vacation around the home than doing all the research about where you want to go,” she said.“我觉得,以住处为中心来计划旅行,比漫无目的地研究自己想去哪儿要自然多了。”她说。Like other home-swapping sites, Behomm (pronounced “be HOME”) allows its members to trade properties, simultaneously or at different times. No money changes hands, as with Airbnb. The conditions for bartering are worked out in advance, and the reciprocal arrangement helps visits run smoothly.和其他住宅交换网站一样,Behomm(发音为“be HOME”,寓意宾至如归)允许会员交换房屋,无论是同时还是错时。在此过程中没有金钱易手,就和Airbnb的模式一样。以物易物的条件已经预先制定,而互惠互利的安排有助于创造良好的入住体验。Arriving at their destination, guests may find wine chilling in the refrigerator, a car at their disposal and a pet waiting to be fed. The principle is mutually assured protection: Do unto another’s Bamp;B Italia sofa as you would have someone do unto yours.到达目的地以后,客人可能会发现酒水已经放入冰箱冰镇,有一辆汽车可供使用,有一只宠物嗷嗷待哺。交换住宅的原则是基于共识的保护:你要爱护别人家的B&B Italia(意大利家具品牌——译注)沙发,正如你希望别人爱护你家中的物品一样。What makes Behomm different (and a likely harbinger of home-exchange sites to come) is its peer-to-peer network. All its members are visual artists, designers or allied professionals. To join, they must work in one of 98 creative disciplines listed on the application, from animator to window dresser.Behomm的与众不同之处在于它的同类人圈子(这或许代表着住宅交换网站未来的发展趋势)。所有会员都是视觉艺术工作者、设计师或同类的专业人士。要想加入会员,申请者的职业必须在网站列出的98个创新门类之内,包括动画师、橱窗设计师等等。And they must have a great-looking place. The landing page at behomm#173;.com features, among other beauties, a fashion designer’s Danish beach cottage, a photographer’s 1920s Milanese flat and an architect couple’s rustic (but not really) house in the Iron Horse neighborhood of Tucson.而且,申请者必须拥有一个漂亮的住处。在behomm.com的登录页面上,该网站主打的特色美宅包括:一位时装设计师在丹麦海边的小木屋、一位摄影师在米兰的上世纪20年代公寓,以及一对建筑师夫妇在图森(Tucson)铁马(Iron Horse)社区的原木(并非真木)住宅。Given the expertise of Behomm’s members, such stylishness is almost a foregone conclusion. Or so the founders believe.鉴于Behomm会员所具备的专业素养,他们能提供如此有品味的住宅,几乎也是必然的结果。或者说,网站的创始人就是这么认为的。 #173;#8226;·Behomm was created by Eva Calduch and Agust Juste, both 48-year-old graphic designers in Barcelona, Spain. The couple, longtime home exchangers, had become tired of slogging through the tens of thousands of entries on popular sites like HomeExchange#173;.com.Behomm的创始人是伊娃·卡尔杜奇(Eva Calduch)和奥古斯特·胡斯特(Agust Juste)都是西班牙巴塞罗那的平面设计师,现年48岁。这对夫妻长期以来经常与人交换住房,他们厌倦了在HomeExchange.com这类大众网站上,从成千上万的房源里大海捞针。“We were wasting hours and hours,” Ms. Calduch said. Then one day they found an architect’s stunning apartment overlooking a seaport on the Balearic island of Minorca and realized that they ought to concentrate on the residences of their peers.“我们浪费了大把的时间,”卡尔杜奇说。后来有一天,他们从一位建筑师那里发现了一套令人惊艳的公寓,从屋里就可俯瞰巴利阿里群岛(Balearic island)的米诺卡岛(Minorca)上的一个海港。由此,他们意识到,以后应该专门从同行那里寻找住处。They began swapping with landscape architects, photographers and interior designers, and a network started, one that became the foundation of Behomm.他们开始与景观设计师、摄影师和室内设计师交换房屋,一个网络渐渐成型,为Behomm打下了基础。The first 300 people to join were offered free lifetime memberships (like many home-exchange sites, Behomm charges annual dues). Even now, new members have a year’s free trial before they pay a fee of 95 euros (about 3).前300名加入会员的人,都被免费授予了终身会员资格(和许多住宅交换网站一样,Behomm也收取年费)。即使是现在,新会员也有为期一年的免费试用期,试用期满后便需付95欧元(约合113美元,人民币702元)的费用了。The site has some 1,200 members, with Spain and the ed States supplying the most — about 200 each. The locations are as far-flung as Bali and Florianópolis, Brazil. Even Japan has four subscribers. (A remarkable number, Ms. Calduch said, considering that a Japanese colleague told her, “We don’t even invite friends over.”)Behomm网站大约有1200名会员,其中以西班牙和美国的会员为主——两国人数均为200人左右。用户的分布远至巴厘岛和巴西的弗洛里亚诺波利斯(Florianópolis)。就连日本也有四位用户(卡尔杜奇说,这个数字很可观,毕竟,一位日本同事曾经告诉她,“我们甚至连朋友都不邀请过来住的。”)。Around 10 to 20 percent of applications are rejected, often because the homes are shown to be messy or dirty. As for the rest, choices are based on “subjective aesthetics,” in Ms. Calduch’s words. Those decisions have nothing to do with size or luxury, she added: “A tiny place with very little can be nicer or more tasteful than a castle.”大约有10%到20%的申请会遭到拒绝,这往往是因为申请者展示的住宅显得脏乱。至于其他原因,用卡尔杜奇的话说,取舍标准是基于“主观美学”,与房子的大小或豪华程度无关。卡尔杜奇还说:“朴实的弹丸之地也可能比一座城堡更好、更有品味。”Nathalie Golliet, a designer in Paris who organizes culinary events, was one of the first to join. “I remember well, because I have the number 26,” she said.巴黎设计师娜塔莉·戈列(Nathalie Golliet)经常筹办美食活动,她是第一批加入的会员。 “我记得很清楚,因为我的编号是26号。”她说。She has made four swaps since becoming a member, including one in Marrakesh, Morocco, with Fran#231;oise Lefebvre, who shares her interest in food.自从成为会员后,她交换过四次房子,其中有一次换到了位于洛哥马拉喀什(Marrakesh)的房子,业主是弗朗索瓦·列斐伏尔(Fran#231;oise Lefebvre),她和戈列一样对美食感兴趣。Each woman was impressed with the other’s well-equipped kitchen. Ms. Golliet even learned how to prepare Moroccan dishes from a cook Ms. Lefebvre sent over while Ms. Golliet was staying at her house.两个人都对彼此设备齐全的厨房印象颇深。戈列甚至从列斐伏尔派来照顾她起居的厨师那里,学会了如何烹制洛哥菜。#8226;#173;·Behomm is not the only home-exchange network to streamline its membership. A site called Seniors Home Exchange is limited to people older than 50. The rationale is that this age group isn’t hampered by school-age children with disruptive vacation schedules. What’s more, the site insists, “Our experience has been that mature people tend to take better care of things when they are not theirs.”Behomm并不是唯一一个给会员设立门槛的住宅交换网站。一个名为“老人住宅交换”(Seniors Home Exchange)的网站将会员年龄限定在50岁以上。理由是,这个年龄段的人不会被学龄儿童混乱的假期安排所困扰。更重要的是,该网站坚持认为,“依照我们的经验,成熟人士更懂得爱护别人的东西。”Trust is fundamental to home exchange, and it is easier to come by in small communities with common interests.在住宅交换的问题上,信任是至关重要的。志同道合的小群体更容易达成信任。Arun Sundararajan, a professor at the Stern School of Business at N.Y.U., who researches the digital sharing economy, said social media platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn, and tools that verify one’s real-life identity, now allow us to vouch for a person’s credibility and good intentions.阿伦·孙达拉拉詹(Arun Sundararajan)是纽约大学斯特恩商学院(Stern School of Business)的教授,研究数字共享经济。他说,如今,Facebook和领英(LinkedIn)这类社交媒体平台,以及一些验个人真实身份的工具,都能够让我们为一个人的信誉和善意担保。Trust can be cultivated even in high-stakes situations like “letting a stranger into your bedroom,” he said, or in the case of long-distance ride-sharing programs like carpooling#173;.com, “letting a stranger drive you to a strange city.” This makes the time ripe for a peer-to-peer home-swapping venture that draws new people in.孙达拉拉詹说,信任是可以培养的,即使在高风险的情况下,比如“让陌生人进入你的卧室”,或是像carpooling.com这类长途搭车项目,“让一个陌生人开车送你去一个陌生的城市”。这就促使了创建同类人群住宅交换项目的时机成熟,吸引着新人的加入。For their part, Behomm’s members spoke of the comfort they found in their intimate network, the novelty of stepping into one another’s shoes and the value of acquaintances that bloom into friendships or business opportunities.就Behomm的会员而言,他们谈及自己在这个亲密的小圈子里体会到的舒自在;还有住在他人家中体会到的新奇感;以及从与人结交中发展出来的友谊或业务机遇。“It goes way beyond sharing a home — you share your lives,” said Alex Trochut, a graphic designer and illustrator who lives in New York and Barcelona. Mr. Trochut described the Behomm experience as the “very opposite of Airbnbn, because you feel entitled to things when you pay for them. This is about giving and not receiving.”“这远非共享住宅那么简单——你还分享了自己的生活经历,”亚历克斯·特罗许(Alex Trochut)说。特罗许是一名平面设计师、插画师,现居纽约和巴塞罗那。他表示,Behomm给人的体验和Airbnb“截然相反,因为如果一样东西是需要付钱的,你就会觉得这是自己应得的。而在Behomm,你所做的就是不计回报地给予。”Can it really be that good? Ms. Calduch said that she has refereed only two small conflicts in the last year and a half. One involved cleaning. “There was a misunderstanding,” she recalled. The other had to do with confusion over which of a member’s multiple homes was being offered.Behomm真的有他说的那么好吗?卡尔杜奇说,在这一年半里,她只调解过两次小矛盾。其中一次事关房屋的清洁问题。“他们之间有些小误会。”她回忆道。另一次的起因是,其中一方搞不清楚对方与他交换的是哪套住宅(对方有多套住宅)。To fend off squabbles, she supplies forms that allow users to specify all the terms for an exchange, including stipulations for purging cat hair and sharing toys. Still, conversations with some Behomm members suggested ample room for dispute.为避免纷争,她提供了表格,让用户列明某次交换的全部条件,包括清理猫毛和分享玩具的具体规定。尽管如此,通过采访一些Behomm会员我们发现,产生分歧的机会还是很多。For instance, Wendy Rommers and her husband, Bas van Schelven, often swap their primary residence near Amsterdam, which is a houseboat.举个例子,温迪·罗默斯(Wendy Rommers)和丈夫巴斯·凡·谢尔万(Bas van Schelven)经常交换他们靠近阿姆斯特丹的主要居住地,那是一座船屋。Ms. Rommers, who is a multidisciplinary designer (Mr. van Schelven owns the company that makes the boats), said that the vessel doesn’t have particular maintenance needs, though she advises keeping the water running on freezing nights. As for safety, there are life jackets, “and things you can throw into the water” that a drowning person might grasp. She made no mention of liability insurance.罗默斯是一位跨领域的设计师(而凡·谢尔万掌管着一家造船公司),她表示,这艘船并没有特别的维护需求,只不过她建议,在严寒的夜里要保持水的流动状态。至于安全问题,屋里备有救生衣,“还有一些可以扔到水里的东西”,以供溺水者抓住。她没有提到责任保险。Indeed, one of the few negative anecdotes came from Mr. Trochut, and he was the cause of havoc. While he and a girlfriend were staying in Copenhagen in 2008, his companion had an asthma attack that put her in the hospital.事实上,在Behomm屈指可数的几件负面轶事中,有一件的当事人就是特罗许,而且,他还是罪魁祸首。2008年,他和一位女朋友在哥本哈根逗留期间,他的同伴因哮喘发作住了院。His hosts were so helpful in advising the couple on medical care that Mr. Trochut decided to repay them by washing the bed linens. Eager to finish before they returned home, he set the washer at the highest speed, which produced vibrations that caused the machine to tumble onto the adjacent bathroom sink, crushing the perfume bottles lined up there.他的房东为两人就医提供了很大帮助,特罗许决定清洗亚麻床单来报答他们。由于急于在房东归来前完成洗涤,他将洗衣机的转速设在了最高档,谁知由于振动太猛,机器翻倒在旁边的浴室盥洗池上,将那里一字排开的香水瓶击碎了。Mr. Trochut discovered the carnage just as his hosts walked in. “We got to an agreement,” he said. “I paid for everything.”特罗许在发现这一惨状时,房东刚好进门。“我们达成一个协议,”他说,“东西都由我赔。” /201502/359164China’s government-run online train ticket sales site 12306 has been causing problems since pretty much the moment it was launched. It broke during its first Spring Festival rush back in 2011, and since then has been the source of a litany of complaints: not processing refunds, cheating customers, promising an app that didn’t materialize for years and then sucked when it finally showed up, breaking again, listing nonsensical departure/arrival times, being associated with corruption, facilitating ticket scalping, shutting down third-party services that fix its bugs, and more.自从12306在线火车票订购网站的诞生后,这个由中国政府独立运营的系统似乎就在不停地出问题。2011年,在它第一次开始运营春运高峰时它就崩溃了,接下来它便成了一系列抱怨的根源:不处理退票,欺骗客户,承诺的app多年没有出现,一出现就糟糕透顶,反复瘫痪,显示无意义的出发抵达时间,贪污腐败,促进倒票行为,关闭帮助其修补漏洞的第三方务,等等等等。That’s an incredibly litany of crimes for a service that has only been around for three years, but its latest may be the worst yet: last week news broke that personal data from 140,000 users was leaked via a security flaw on the 12306 site. The leaked data includes personal ID numbers, email addresses, and phone numbers. It also contains unencrypted, plaintext passwords.作为刚刚运营了3年的务系统,它一连串的罪行是令人难以置信的,而最近新爆出的一条可能是最糟糕的:上周消息传出,由于12306网站的一个安全漏洞140000用户的个人信息被泄露。泄露信息包括个人身份号码,电子邮箱地址还有电话号码。它还包含未加密的明文密码。In a statement on its website after the leak, 12306 denies that the information comes from its database, saying that it doesn’t store plaintext passwords. Instead, the site suggests the ticket buyers’ data may have been leaked from one of the third-party plugins and programs Chinese people use to purchase tickets so that they don’t have to interact with the 12306 site directly. (Subsequent reports suggest hackers used leaked data from other sites to access 12306’s database).泄露丑闻发生后,12306在其网站上发声明,否认信息是来自于它的数据库,说它不存储明文密码。相反,该网站建议购票者的数据可能是被中国人用于购票的一个第三方插件和程序所泄露的,因此他们不必与12306进行直接交互。(后续报道显示黑客使用其它网站泄露的信息登录12306数据库)。But it almost doesn’t matter whether the leaked data actually came from 12306 or a third-party plugin. The fact is that if 12306 was a reliable, fully functional, and convenient platform for purchasing train tickets, nobody would use third-party apps to begin with. But because the site is so buggy and user-unfriendly, nearly half of China’s internet users buy their tickets via third-party services. (These services don’t sell tickets directly, they just facilitate purchases from 12306 by presenting a cleaner and more convenient user experience). Even if the leak came from a third-party plugin, it’s 12306’s fault that its crappy site has forced so many users onto those plugins in the first place.但实际上数据是否是从12306泄露的还是从第三方插件已经无所谓了。事实是,如果12306是一个可靠的、功能齐全,方便购买火车票的平台,没有人会使用第三方应用程序。而正是因为这个网站如此卡又不好用,才使得近一半的中国的互联网用户通过第三方务商购买车票。(这些务商并不直接卖门票,他们只是为用户提供一个在12306购买车票时更便捷、更方便的用户体验)。即使泄漏来自第三方插件,12306蹩脚糟糕的网站已经迫使很多用户不得不在第一时间选择这些插件,这是12306的过错。As an ecommerce platform, there’s simply no denying that 12306 is awful. But it would be so easy to fix! China has numerous internet companies with experience in building robust online shopping platforms that can withstand massive traffic. I have no doubt that a company like Alibaba or JD would be capable of building a more secure, more stable, and more convenient platform for train ticket sales, probably within a short time frame.12306作为一个电子商务平台,它的糟糕是无可厚非的。修补它是非常简单的!中国有众多互联网公司,它们拥有健壮的网上购物平台构建经验,可以承受巨大的流量。我毫不怀疑,可能在短时间内,像阿里巴巴或京东这样的公司能够建设一个更安全、更稳定、更方便的火车票销售平台。This is not the first time I’ve made this plea. And there were rumors that the site was looking for an ecommerce partner to help almost immediately after the site launched, though no partnership ever materialized. But it’s better late than never, and whether or not it directly leaked the buyers’ personal information last week, China’s government must recognize that it is culpable here. Despite having cost nearly US0 million, three years on 12306 still offers a user experience so terrible that nearly half its customers turn to third-party plugins and programs to complete their 12306 transactions.这不是我第一次做这个请求。还有传言说这个网站在投放时就在寻找一个电子商务合作伙伴,以帮助网站立即启动,虽然从来没有落实这个伙伴关系。但它的迟到总比不到好,上周无论它是否直接泄露买家的个人信息,中国政府必须认识到,12306是有责任的。尽管投入成本近1亿美元,三年间,12306还是令其用户感到糟糕,致使近一半的客户转向第三方插件和程序来帮助完成他们在12306上的交易。By any reasonable standard, 12306’s design is an abject failure, and the site would have gone out of business long ago if it did not have a monopoly on sales of one of the most popular products in China. China’s government is unlikely to turn its ticket sales over to a private company any time soon, but it should at least hire Alibaba or JD to redesign its online platform from the ground up to create something that actually meets users’ needs, rather than driving them towards dubious third-party solutions as the current site does.用任何公道的衡量标准,12306的设计失败都是可悲的,在中国,车票在线销售是最受欢迎的产品之一,如果12306不是凭借着拥有垄断销售的地位,它可能很早以前就无生意可做了。中国政府短时间内不大可能将车票销售私有化,但至少它可以雇佣像阿里巴巴或京东这样的团队去重新设计其在线平台,从而真正迎合用户需求,而不是像当下这样驱使12306用户投奔不可靠的第三方解决需求。 /201501/356293

Times are hard for Japanese with a sweet tooth as the country bemoans the latest side effect of Abenomics: a surge in the price of chocolate.对于喜爱甜食的日本人来说,现在的日子有点不好过,该国正抱怨安倍经济学(Abenomics)的一个最新副作用:巧克力价格飙升。Over the past two weeks, all three of Japan’s largest confectioners — Meiji, Morinagaand Lotte — have announced sharp increases in the price of any sweet that uses cocoa.过去两周,日本三大糖果制造商——明治(Meiji)、森永(Morinaga)和乐天(Lotte)均宣布大幅上调所有以可可粉为原料的产品的价格。The price rises reflect the yen’s latest slide, taking it from Y120 to Y125 against the dollar since mid-May, a move with decidedly mixed consequences for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus.此番涨价反映出日元汇率的最新下跌行情,自5月中旬以来,日元兑美元汇率已从120日元兑1美元跌至125日元兑1美元,对于日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)推出的经济刺激计划而言,这必然会产生好坏不一的结果。A weaker currency should help exporters, while higher inflation is one of Mr Abe’s main goals. Economists worry, however, that rising prices for imported food will drain Japanese consumers of cash and confidence, hampering the recovery of domestic demand.汇率下跌应会帮助出口商,而通胀上升是安倍晋三的主要目标之一。然而,经济学家担心,进口食品价格上涨将损耗日本消费者的现金和信心,从而阻碍内需的回暖。Deploying very similar language in their press releases, each confectioner said it had done its best to absorb the cost of imported raw materials, but was now having to pass the costs on to customers.这三家糖果制造商在新闻发布会上使用了非常类似的措辞,它们都表示,已尽全力消化进口原材料的成本,但现在不得不将成本转嫁给消费者。At Lotte, the prices of its eight best-selling chocolates are up 10 per cent; the largest increase at Meiji is 11.9 per cent on its Banana Chocco product.乐天的8种最畅销的巧克力价格上涨10%;明治价格涨幅最大的是其香蕉巧克力(Banana Chocco)产品,上涨11.9%。Nor is it just chocolates. The price of everything from curry to cup noodles is on the up, with food inflation running about 2 per cent, compared with the flat level of core goods prices.涨价的不仅仅是巧克力产品。从咖喱到杯面的所有产品都在涨价,日本的食品通胀率为2%左右,而核心商品价格却未见上涨。“We are certainly hearing more companies increasing prices in line with increasing import costs relating to the yen,” said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.美银美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)首席日本外汇策略师山田秀佑(Shusuke Yamada)表示:“我们确实听到有更多企业在涨价,以应对以日元计价的进口价格上涨。”“But the ability of the companies to raise prices is also because the deflationary mindset of Japan is disappearing, so companies are more confident passing the rising costs of raw materials on to customers.”“但企业之所以能够涨价还因为日本的通缩观念在消失,因此企业有更多的信心将不断上涨的原材料成本转嫁给消费者。”Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, said companies tend to use the yen as a convenient excuse for price rises aimed at boosting their margins.瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻东京首席经济学家白川弘道(Hiromichi Shirakawa)表示,企业往往会利用日元作为涨价的便利借口,而它们涨价是为了提高利润率。“The Bank of Japan may want to argue the phenomenon shows a rising expected inflation rate,” he said. “In reality, it seems to us, this is not about expected inflation as much as companies wanting to get some money back.”“日本央行(Bank of Japan)可能希望辩称,这种现象显示出通胀预期日益上升,”他表示,“实际上,在我们看来,这与其说关乎通胀预期,不如说是因为企业想收回一些现金。”The bump in food prices will help keep headline inflation above zero through the summer — with propaganda benefits, at least, for Japan’s central bank. The economic effect will depend on whether the boost to exports outweighs the hit to consumption.食品价格上涨将有利于在今年整个夏季将整体通胀率保持在零以上,至少对于日本央行而言,这具有宣传效应。其经济效应将取决于对出口的提振是否超过对消费的冲击。Mr Shirakawa thinks the benefits will be modest, because sluggish global demand means low export prices are offsetting the boost from a weaker currency. Meanwhile, it will be harder to raise consumption, with wage increases for Japanese workers absorbed by higher prices at the supermarket.白川弘道认为,汇率下跌对经济的好处将较微弱,因为全球需求乏力意味着低出口价格正抵消日元走软所带来的提振作用。与此同时,日本劳动者的薪资上涨被超市涨价吸收,提高消费的难度将加大。“I think the average Japanese will feel they are getting somewhat poorer,” he says.他表示:“我认为,日本普通人会感到自己变穷了。”Analysts at Nomura argue that Japanese households are well able to tolerate a weaker yen but that the speed of yen depreciation makes a big difference.野村(Nomura)分析师称,日本家庭具备很强的能力忍受日元贬值,但日元贬值的速度会有很大影响。“While it takes some time for the yen depreciation’s positive impact on exports to be felt by the domestic economy, the prices of imported energy and domestic consumer prices rise much more quickly, effectively reducing real income levels of Japanese households,” noted economist Tomo Kinoshita in a report.经济学家木下智夫(Tomo Kinoshita)在一份报告中指出:“国内经济需要一段时间才能感受到日元贬值对出口的积极影响,但进口能源和国内消费者物价上涨的速度要快得多,这事实上降低了日本家庭的实际收入水平。”With Japan’s economy trundling forward, the path of the yen is likely to depend greatly on how fast the US moves towards a rise in interest rates, and whether China manages a soft landing for its economy.随着日本经济缓慢向前,日元汇率的走势可能会在很大程度上取决于,美国迈向加息的步伐有多快,以及中国是否能实现国内经济软着陆。“The yen is getting to the point where the dollar rally has been driven by technical factors and could stall at any time,” said Mr Yamada.山田秀佑表示:“日元兑美元汇率即将到达这样一个点,即一直受到技术因素推动的美元升值可能会随时停止。” /201506/379801

There are few worse countries to be a woman than Saudi Arabia. Yet the kingdom’s recent adoption of four weeks paid leave means Saudi women now have better maternity benefits than their US counterparts.对于女性而言,几乎没有比沙特阿拉伯更糟糕的国家了。然而,沙特阿拉伯最近实行的四周带薪产假政策意味着,沙特阿拉伯女性现在的产假福利高于美国。American women’s surprisingly weak work benefits are now belatedly coming into the spotlight. Hillary Clinton’s White House bid took a long time to get off the ground. But if she can stir the female vote, as her campaign aims to do, the White House is hers to lose. Women vote in higher numbers than men. They also hold the key to America’s economic future.美国女性的工作福利低得惊人,这点现在才开始引起人们的关注。希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton)也经历了很长时间才宣布竞选总统。但如果她能激发女性选民的投票,一如她的竞选活动所计划的,那么她入主白宫将胜算很大。在美国,女性投票率高于男性。她们也是美国经济未来的关键。Mrs Clinton virtually ignored her gender in her 2008 campaign. The prospect of electing America’s first black president overshadowed that other big glass ceiling. Because of her familiarity, it is easy to underestimate her potential to excite women in 2016. In the US, black men received the vote more than half a century before women. Black turnout for Barack Obama was a strong factor in his 2008 landslide. Women could do the same for Mrs Clinton. The gap in turnout is aly wide (63.7 per cent of US women voted in 2012, versus 59.8 per cent of men). If Mrs Clinton could extend that by a couple of points, her electoral maths would be decisive.在2008年总统大选中,希拉里几乎忽略了她的性别。选出美国首位黑人总统的前景,让人忽视了女性同样面对着巨大的“玻璃天花板”。由于她被人熟知,人们很容易低估她在2016年激发女性热情的潜力。在美国,黑人男性获得选举权的时间要比女性早半个多世纪。对于巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)而言,黑人选民是他在2008年以绝对优势入主白宫的一个有力因素。女性也可能会将希拉里送入白宫。男女投票人数差距已经拉大(2012年美国女性投票率为63.7%,男性为59.8%)。如果希拉里能够把差距再提高几个百分点,那么她将稳操胜券。The women’s vote is Mrs Clinton’s potential gold mine. But it is also her pitfall. Any sense that she is pandering to one slice of the electorate — even if it makes up more than half of it — could backfire. Many women (and men) revile Mrs Clinton as a manipulative figure who owes her career to her husband. Women lean more Democratic than Republican, but most do not vote on a candidate’s gender. Moreover, at 67, Mrs Clinton suffers from an age gap. In 2008, Mr Obama won more young women’s votes in the Democratic primaries than Mrs Clinton, although she received marginally more of the female vote overall. She cannot expect to shift the gender gap simply by declaring that her election would make history. She will need to incite women’s hopes without alienating men. As it happens,a majority of both belong to America’s squeezed middle class.女性选民的选票是希拉里的潜在金矿。但这也是她的陷阱。如果她让人有任何她在迎合某一部分选民的感觉,即使这部分人构成总选民半数以上,都可能会产生反作用。很多女性(以及男性)斥责希拉里是一个靠丈夫走上政治生涯、善于玩手腕的人。比起共和党,女性更倾向于民主党,但大多数女性不会根据候选人的性别投票。此外,67岁的希拉里在年龄差距上也要吃亏。2008年,奥巴马在民主党初选中获得的年轻女性的选票比希拉里更多,尽管后者在女性总体投票中略占优势。她不能指望仅仅通过宣称自己的胜选将创造历史,来改变性别差距。她必须既激起女性的希望,又不疏远男性选民。凑巧的是,两者中的大多数都属于美国受到挤压的中产阶级。There was a time when promising to revive US manufacturing would have done the trick. But most voters sense that “reshoring” is a chimera, at least in terms of jobs. Besides, Mrs Clinton tried that line in 2008 and lost — and most of the blue collar jobs that had vanished were male. Mrs Clinton’s challenge in today’s post-meltdown economy is very different. Women bear the brunt of the trend towards part-time work in casualised industries. They also have a far rawer deal than in most other advanced economies. Alone among wealthy democracies, American women have no right to paid maternity leave, no federal support for childcare facilities and very few protections if they get pregnant. Under a bill passed in Bill Clinton’s first year as president, Americans are entitled to 12 weeks of unpaid parental leave. Nothing has been added since then. Almost no men avail of it, according the Center for American Progress, a Washington think-tank. Perhaps they would if it was worth their while.曾有一段时间,承诺重振美国制造业本可以一箭双雕。但大多数选民都感到制造业“回流”只是一种幻想——至少在增加工作机会方面。此外,希拉里2008年已尝试过这一路线但失败了,而且大部分已消失的蓝领工作都是男性从事的。在目前后危机时代的经济中,希拉里面临截然不同的挑战。在临时工化行业的兼职趋势中,女性往往是首当其冲。比起其他大多数发达经济体,她们的待遇也糟糕得多。在富裕的民主国家中,只有美国女性没有权利带薪休产假、没有联邦政府对儿童保育设施的资助,而且在怀期间很少受到保障。根据比尔#8226;克林顿(Bill Clinton)担任总统第一年期间通过的一项法案,美国人享有12周的无薪育婴假。从那时起,再没有增加。华盛顿智库美国进步中心(Center for American Progress)数据显示,几乎没有男性享用过这一权利。如果这样做是值得的话,也许他们会休育婴假。But the real scandal is America’s falling rate of female employment. Until 2000, the US female labour force participation rate climbed in parallel with those of other countries. Since then, it has dropped while it has continued to improve elsewhere. Only 75 per cent of US women between the ages of 25 and 54 are in work, compared to an average of 79 per cent in the other 22 advanced countries. A key reason is the weakness of women’s benefits. In places like Germany and Canada, the gap between men and women’s pay is far smaller than in the US. That is partly because far more men take parental leave. It is also because the US has much weaker childcare support. In almost half of US states, it costs more to put two kids in childcare than the average cost of housing. Little wonder so many women have been dropping out of work.但真正的丑闻在于美国女性就业率的下降。直到2000年,美国女性劳动参与率一直与其他国家同步攀升。自2000年以来,美国女性劳动参与率开始下降,而其他地区的该比率在继续上升。在25至54岁的美国女性中,仅有75%的人在工作,而其他22个发达经济体平均为79%。一个关键原因是职场女性福利的薄弱。在德国和加拿大等国家,男女收入的差距比美国小得多。部分原因在于更多男性休育婴假,也在于美国对儿童保育的持要弱得多。在美国将近一半的州里,把两个孩子托付给儿童保育机构的费用高于住房的平均费用。也难怪有如此多的女性退出职场。In this respect, Mrs Clinton’s candidacy comes at precisely the right moment. America’s biggest economic problem is its stagnant middle class. It will probably be the key issue in the 2016 presidential election. The most obvious remedy is to bring more women into the US workforce and keep them there. The larger the labour force, the longer the US Federal Reserve can keep interest rates low without triggering inflation. The more secure women feel in their jobs, the lower the turnover costs to business. It costs far more to find and train new employees than to retain them with decent benefits.在这一方面来讲,希拉里成为总统候选人正逢其时。美国最大的经济问题是中产阶层的停滞不前。这很可能将成为2016年总统大选中一个关键问题。最显而易见的解决办法是让更多女性进入职场,并留住她们。劳动力队伍越大,美联储(Fed)就可以把低利率维持得越久而不引发通胀。女性在工作中越是感到安全,企业的员工流失成本就越低。找到并培训新员工的成本,远高于以体面的福利留住他们的成本。The economic case is a no-brainer — The US is a generation late to the party. But the political case may be tougher to sell. In recent years, Democrats, including Mrs Clinton, have focused on the Republican “war on women”. Republican-controlled states have busily been making it harder to get abortions. They have also been restricting access to contraception. Mrs Clinton’s temptation will be to up that rhetorical ante. It would be a mistake. Republicans will do that for themselves. Her focus should be the US economy. Women’s issues are no longer just women’s issues, if they ever were. Their economic wellbeing is a key to lifting America’s long-term growth.从经济问题入手非常容易让人理解——在恢复繁荣上,美国已经迟到了一代人的时间。但从政治问题说别人或许就困难很多。近几年来,包括希拉里在内的民主党人把注意力集中在共和党人的“反妇女战争”(War on Women)上。共和党人控制的州一直忙于给堕胎设置更多障碍。这些州也一直给获得避务设限。希拉里将面临升级这方面论调的诱惑,不过这将是一个错误。共和党人自己将会这么做。希拉里的关注焦点应是美国经济。妇女问题如今不再仅仅是妇女问题,就算曾经是的话。妇女的经济福祉是提振美国的长期增长的一个关键因素。The more Mrs Clinton can make voters think about that, the likelier she is to turn the conversation her way.希拉里越是能让选民们想到这一点,她就越有可能让对话朝着对自己有利的方向发展。 /201504/369964

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