时间:2017年12月16日 01:52:39

Imagine that Britain’s Labour party had replaced Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband before they contested a general election. 想象一下,假如英国工党(Labour party)在大选之前把戈登.布朗(Gordon Brown)或埃米利班德(Ed Miliband)换了下来,In all likelihood, there would have been no Tory government, and therefore no referendum on the EU and therefore no exit from it.那么很可能,现在的英国政府将不会是保守党政府,退欧公投就不会举行,英国也就不会退欧。Imagine that Hillary Clinton had swung 100,000 votes across three US states Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania that elected and re-elected Barack Obama. 想象一下,如果希拉克林Hillary Clinton)在威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州这三个在上两次大选中都投票持巴拉克.奥巴Barack Obama)的州多赢得了10万张选票,The world would now be stifling a yawn at the resilience of mainstream politics against reactionary stresses.那么,世界现在将有些索然无味地目睹坚韧的主流政治又一次抵挡住了反动压力。Those of us who follow politics are suckers for the epic: when electorates do strange things, we want to believe we are living through a kink in history. 我们这些追踪政治动态的人都有史诗情结:当选民做了奇怪的事情,我们想相信自己正在经历着历史的转折。When the world’s two stablest democracies vote for change, it must be the end of liberalism or the hollowing out of the middle class or something comparably grandiose at work. 当世界上两个最稳定的民主国家投票持改变时,这一定是自由主义的终结、中产阶层空心化、或其他什么同样宏大的因素在起作用。To blame it on particularities, such as the left’s saintly patience with mediocre leaders in recent years, is somehow unsatisfying.把这怪罪到一些特殊状况(例如近年来左翼对平庸领导人表现出来的圣人般的耐心)的头上,似乎不能令人满意。Maybe this year will turn out to be a lasting twist in the world story from liberalism to non-liberalism. 今年或许将标志着世界历史从自由主义到非自由主义的一次持久转折。But the grounds for believing so amount to one close referendum and one even closer election. 但是,这一观点所基于的理由,也只不过是一次很悬的退欧公投和一次更悬的美国大选。The first is yet to be implemented, or even defined, and the second, whose implications are as ambiguous as the views of Donald Trump, that big-government free-marketeer, that Keynesian Reaganite, is reversible in four years time. 退欧尚未付诸实施,甚至尚未得到界定;而美国大选的影响尚不确定,唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)这位大政府和自由市场、凯恩斯-里根主义的信奉者也可能在四年时间里转变观点。Americans have just elected a man who wants to cut taxes and repeal financial regulations. 美国人刚选出一个想减税和废除金融法规的总统,米利班德已由此推断出,旧的经济安排——他指的是自由主义——已经死了。From this, Mr Miliband has inferred that the old economic settlement, by which he means liberalism, is dead.The only intelligible lesson of 2016 is that William Goldman’s verdict on Hollywood Nobody knows anything, said the screenwriter applies to matters of state. 2016年唯一明白易懂的教训就是,编剧威廉.戈德William Goldman)对好莱坞的评判——没人懂任何事情——也适用于国家事务。Forecasting political events is as inexact a science as picking a commercial hit out of a dozen submitted screenplays, and less fun. 预测政治事件是一项不精确的科学,就像从十几个提交上来的剧本中挑一个能火的剧本一样,而且更不好玩。Having failed to predict these events, we should leave it a while before extrapolating from them the end of the postwar order of trading nations secured by American military guarantees, or even the post-1979 move to globalisation.如果没有预测到这些事件,我们应该暂且把它们放下,不要马上就由这些事件推断战后相互贸易的国家由美国保障的秩序走到了尽头、甚979年后开始的全球化进程走到了尽头。This confident account, aired as though it had aly happened in the days after Mr Trump’s election, has western nations tumbling like dominoes to autarky and a suspicion of all foreigners bar certain favoured strongmen. 这种自信的描述——似乎它描述的事情在特朗普当选之后的这些天里真发生了一样——导致西方国家像多米诺骨牌一样一个接一个倒向了自给自足、倒向了对所有外国人的怀疑——只除了某些受青睐的强人。It holds out hope for high-minded Germany as the point of fixity in the storm, like one of its classy midfielders decorating a mindless game of football with some cultured passes.这种描述寄希望于高尚的德国能在风暴中保持岿然不动,就像优秀的德国中场球员用优雅的传球装点一场心不在焉的足球赛那样。This assumes rather a lot: that Mr Trump, who has aly softened his line on various subjects, meant what he said over the past 18 months; that what he said had a consistent anti-liberal theme; that EU exit will leave Britain less not more open as an economy; that European populism, from France to Italy, will break through over the coming year; that statist change in the west will not be offset by market reforms elsewhere. 这里包含了太大的假设成分:要假设已在各个不同问题上软化了自己立场的特朗普,会对自己在过去18个月里说过的话说到做到,并且他说过的话包含一以贯之的反自由主义主题;要假设退欧会让英国成为一个更封闭、而非更开放的经济体;要假设从法国到意大利的欧洲民粹主义,将在未来一年取得突破;要假设西方的国家主义变化不会被其他地方的市场改革所抵消。It is even presumptuous on the upside. 它寄以希望的地方看起来甚至是冒昧的——It counts on Germany, which was upset by revelations of American espionage two years ago, volunteering for the ugly burdens that are the lot of a hegemon.它指望对两年前披露出的美国间谍活动感到心烦的德国,主动承担起一个霸主必然免不了的讨厌负担。These hunches might be vindicated by events but what justifies the certainty in which they are couched? Who in 2008, as banks fell and governments acted, knew that right-of-centre parties would dominate the rich world eight years later? Why be sure of the shape of the rich world eight years from now?这些预感可能会被后面发生的事件实,但现在有什么理由把话说得如此确定呢008年,当纷纷倒下、政府采取行动时,谁知道中右翼政党将在八年后主宰富裕世界?现在凭什么能肯定八年后富裕世界会是怎样的状况呢?Perhaps the worst will happen. 或许最坏的情况确实会发生。Or perhaps mainstream politicians will crib enough from the populists to neuter their electoral appeal without changing the fundamentals of our societies. 抑或主流政治人士会从民粹主义者那里借鉴足够多的东西,在不改变我们社会基本面的情况下,平息选民的吁求。This implies less low-skilled migration and a further gumming-up of the aly glacial work of agreeing trade deals. 这暗示着低技能移民变少,原本缓慢的达成贸易协议的进程进一步陷入胶着。Or maybe America, which gave Mrs Clinton more votes than her opponent and gives Mr Obama lavish approval ratings, will revert to the mean in 2020 even without these accommodations.又或者,020年,即便没有这些调整,给了希拉里多于对手的普选票数、也给了奥巴马很高持率的美国,将回归中庸。There are many plausible futures and liberals seem to reach for the bleakest one as self-punishment for their hubris 关于未来会怎样,目前存在许多种有道理的可能性,而自由主义者们似乎触及的是其中最暗淡的一种,作为对冷战后骄傲自大的自我惩罚。After the cold war, when Francis Fukuyama sensed the endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution. 冷战之后,弗朗西福山(Francis Fukuyama)感觉到了人类意识形态发展的终点。In jeering his account of history as something that stopped in 1989, we have exchanged one teleology for another: the triumph of liberalism for its impending extinction.在嘲讽他的历史在1989年终结的说法时,我们把一种目的论换成了另一种目的论:把自由主义取得胜利换成了它即将消亡。Yes, he erred. 是的,福山错了。But the lesson was the importance of predictive humility. 但是,这个错误带给我们的教训是,在预测未来时保持谦卑非常重要。It was the cue to accept human affairs as more of a dog’s breakfast than a knowable epic, not to sell our shares in the distressed asset called market democracy. 它提示我们要接受现实,即人类的事情就是乱糟糟的一团、而不是一部可知的史诗,不要急着抛售我们在一份名为市场民主的不良资产中持有的股份。There is no end of history and there is no end to our hysteria.历史没有终点,人类的歇斯底里也没有终点。来 /201611/480015

Here is a very modest test of your imagination. It is December and Hillary Clinton is the president-elect. Not only did she beat Donald Trump but the Democrats retook the Senate and cut the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The US is gearing up for a third Clinton White House or is it a third Obama term? Moreover, she will start on very low expectations. Whatever she can squeeze out of a horribly poisoned environment will be a bonus. 以下对你的想象力进行一次非常温和的测试。现在是12月,希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)是美国当选总统。她不仅击败唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump),而且民主党人重新掌控参议院,并削弱了共和党在众议院的多数席位。美国将迎来克林顿夫妇第三次入主白宫——或者是奥巴马的第三个任期?此外,希拉里将从外界非常低的预期起步。她从已被毒化的可怕环境无论争取到何种成果,都将是意外收获True, her dignity is in tatters. Mr Trump made sure of that in what was the most vicious general election ever. His supporters will remain undyingly hostile. But in today’s climate it is about as good as you get. Mrs Clinton has been handed a bunch of lemons. Her job is to make lemonade. 没错,她的尊严已荡然无存。特朗普在史上最激烈的总统大选中确保了这一点。他的持者们仍将对希拉里充满敌意。但在如今的氛围下,你能得到的也就是这么多。希拉里被递给一堆柠檬。她的任务是制作柠檬水Too much of a stretch? It should not be. Bernie Sandersemphatic caucus victories in Washington state, Alaska and Hawaii on Saturday night are a reminder that Mrs Clinton remains distrusted by much of her party’s base. But she is still firmly on course for the Democratic nomination. Moreover, most senior Republicans have all but written off the next White House. Their goal in 2016 is damage limitation. If Mr Trump wins a majority of delegates, they will have to hold their noses and live with him. But most would prefer to be defeated with Ted Cruz on the ticket. 这有些异想天开?应该不是。伯#8226;桑德Bernie Sanders)上周六晚间在华盛顿州、阿拉斯加和夏威夷的初选中大获全胜提醒人们,希拉里依然不被党内许多基层选民信任。但她仍在大踏步走向获得民主党总统候选人的提名。与此同时,大多数的共和党大佬几乎放弃了该党今年问鼎白宫的希望。他们在2016年的目标是“损害限制”。如果特朗普获得多数选举人票,他们将不得不捏着鼻子认了。但大多数人将宁愿让特德#8226;克鲁Ted Cruz)作为共和党总统候选人输掉大选To say there is no love lost between Mr Cruz and his colleagues is an understatement . But that is not the point. Either Mr Trump or Mr Cruz would go down to Mrs Clinton in November. Only Mr Cruz would keep the Republican Party intact. Furthermore, unlike Mr Trump, Mr Cruz is a conventional, if extreme, ideologue. His defeat would dispel the myth that Republicans keep losing because they fail to choose true conservatives. The scene would be set for someone like Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, to recapture the White House in 2020. 说克鲁兹和党内同僚彼此间没有好感是客气话。但问题不在这里。无论是特朗普还是克鲁兹都会在今1月败给希拉里。但只有克鲁兹会让共和党全身而退。此外,与特朗普不同,克鲁兹是一个常规(即使有些极端)的理论家。他的落败将打破这样一种神话,即共和党人屡战屡败是因为他们未能推选出真正的保守派候选人。这将为众议院议长保#8226;瑞安(Paul Ryan)或其他人020年问鼎白宫搭起舞台In reality, however, this is likelier to be a contest between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump. What a fight it will be. For opposition researchers the “opposwhose living it is to dig up whatever dirt they can find a Clinton-Trump ticket is an election made in heaven. Never before in US politics have two such well-documented figures come face to face. 然而,在现实中,更有可能的情况是希拉里和特朗普展开对决。这将是一场异常激烈的角力。对选举对手研究员来说——他们的生计是尽可能挖掘对手的污点——希拉里对阵特朗普是一场天作选举。美国政治从未有过两个如此长期备受瞩目的人物展开竞争Mr Trump has been a household name in New York since the late 1970s when he began to play the local tabloids. Mrs Clinton has been a national figure since 1992, when she first came to attention as the Arkansas governor’s ambitious wife. The “vast rightwing conspiracyagainst Mrs Clinton has been up and running for more than two decades. The string of Trumpian nightclub photo-ops goes back four decades. Mr Trump would be the first nominee whose spouse, Melania, has posed nude in a magazine. That would be a first for a prospective First Lady. Mrs Clinton would be the first nominee whose husband has had sexual encounters in the Oval Office. Could you invent this? 自上世纪70年代开始运营当地小报以来,特朗普在纽约一直是家喻户晓的人物。自1992年作为阿肯色州州长雄心勃勃的妻子首次引起注意以来,希拉里就一直是全国知名人士。针对希拉里的“庞大右翼阴谋”持续了20多年。特朗普出入夜总会提供0年的摄影机会。特朗普将是首位配偶梅拉尼娅(Melania)裸体照片曾登上一家杂志的提名候选人。那将是潜在第一夫人中的首例。而希拉里将是首名丈夫曾在椭圆办公室出轨的提名候选人。你能编造出这些八卦吗? In truth, Mrs Clinton will be blessed in her opponent. In any other situation, she would have entered the 2016 election as an odds-even prospect at best. With Mr Trump, she is the overwhelming favourite. Fifty-six per cent of Americans disapprove of Mrs Clinton and an even larger share distrust her. No one has ever made it to the White House with negative trust numbers. But luck is on her side. Among a field of candidates with higher ratings than Mrs Clinton, Republicans have singled out the only one whose numbers are far worse. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Mr Trump. Moreover, women disapprove of him by far larger margins. Since women vote in higher numbers than men (even angry white men), this ought to doom Mr Trump’s chances. 事实上,希拉里将会因竞争对手而受惠。在其他任何情况下,她进016年大选时的胜算充其量只有一半。在与特朗普对决的情况下,她将是占有压倒性优势的热门人选6%的美国人不持希拉里,而不信任她的人数比例甚至更高。从未有人在不信任比例超过一半的情况下问鼎白宫。但是运气惠顾她这一边。共和党本来有多名持率超过希拉里的候选人,该党却偏偏让唯一一位持率糟糕得多的候选人脱颖而出。三分之二的美国人不持特朗普。此外,不持特朗普的女性比例要高得多。由于女性投票比例高于男性(甚至愤怒的白人男性),这应该会葬送特朗普的机会Could these numbers be wrong? Of course. It is human beings who vote in elections, not pieces of data. But primary voters are more volatile and extreme than general electorates. A pollster’s chances of mis-forecasting the Iowa caucus, for example, are far higher than miscuing in the general. 这些数据可能错误吗?当然有可胀?毕竟,在选举中投票的是人、而不是数据。但初选选民比大选选民更为反复无常和极端。例如,民意调查员错误预测爱荷华州党团会议的几率远高于整体误判For Mrs Clinton, the most critical number is Mr Obama’s approval rating. This has been creeping up steadily for the past few months and now hovers at around 50 per cent. If it stays there, Mrs Clinton is set fair. It will dictate that she ensures there will be no crack of daylight between her and the sitting president before November 8. There are many areas, most notably foreign policy, where Mrs Clinton differs with Mr Obama . She has a more activist vision of US diplomacy and would have fewer qualms about asserting military power in Syria and elsewhere. She has said she does not want her grandchildren to grow up in a China-dominated world. 对希拉里来说,最关键的数据是奥巴马的持率。在过去几个月里奥巴马的持率一直稳步攀升,现在徘徊0%左右。如果继续保持这个持率,希拉里就赢定了。这将需要希拉里确保1日前和现任总统不会公开分歧。希拉里在许多领域(尤其是外交政策)与奥巴马存在分歧。她认为美国外交应更有作为,而且不太担心在叙利亚和其他地方动用武力。她已经说过,不希望自己的孙辈在中国主导的世界长大But all that can wait until January. Mr Obama is itching to campaign on Mrs Clinton’s behalf and she will need his help to bring out the African Americans, the Hispanics, the young and the progressives. As I say, it will be a vicious battle that will bring little credit to democracy. Mrs Clinton still lacks a coherent message and most Americans distrust her. A large minority hates her. Mr Trump will channel that raw sentiment. Long after he has been defeated and the spectre of a Trump administration dispelled his army of supporters will live on. That genie is out of the bottle. Mrs Clinton will finally have achieved her ambition. But the age of extreme incivility will be only just beginning. 但这一切可以等到明月再说。奥巴马渴望代表希拉里展开竞选——而后者将需要奥巴马的帮助来吸引非裔美国人、拉美裔美国人、年轻人和进步人士。正如我前面所说的,这将是一场很难为民主体制增色的激烈竞争。希拉里仍缺乏连贯的政见,大多数美国人不信任她。还有一个为数不少的少数群体憎恨她。特朗普将利用那种原始情绪。在他被击败——以及“特朗普政府”的魅影消散——之后很久,他的持者阵营仍将存在。魔鬼已经逃出了瓶子。希拉里最终将实现其野心。但极端不文明的时代将只是刚刚拉开帷幕。来 /201603/434368

Barack and Michelle Obama have signed book deals with Penguin Random House, the publisher announced.企鹅兰登书屋近日宣布,贝拉克·奥巴马和米歇尔·奥巴马已与该出版社签署图书协议。Financial terms were not disclosed for the books, for which several publishers had competed, although the Financial Times reported that bidding reached more than 60 million dollars - a record sum for US presidential memoirs.有几家出版社竞拍图书出版权,成交金额尚未披露。不过,《金融时报》报道称,竞拍价已突000万美元——创下美国总统回忆录出版权标价之最;We are absolutely thrilled to continue our publishing partnership with President and Mrs. Obama,; Penguin Random House CEO Markus Dohle said in a statement.企鹅兰登书屋的首席执行官马库斯·多勒在一份声明中说道:“我们非常高兴能继续与奥巴马总统和及奥巴马夫人保持出版合作关系。”The Obamas plan to donate a ;significant portion; of their author proceeds to charity, including to the Obama Foundation.奥巴马夫妇打算将“很大一部分”作者收益捐给包括奥巴马基金会在内的慈善机构。Additionally, Penguin Random House will donate 1 million books ;in the Obama familys name;.此外,企鹅兰登书屋将“以奥巴马家庭的名义”捐00万册图书。The pair of Obama books will be published separately and there are no official publication dates yet.奥巴马夫妇的两本图书将分开出版,正式出版日期暂未确定。来 /201703/497097

Brexit means Brexit. 退欧就是退Brexit means Brexit)。As circular as it is concise, this three-word sentence tells us much about the style of Theresa May, the UK prime minister. 这句既重复又简练的话极大地透露出英国首相特里萨#8226;Theresa May)的行事风格。I take this to mean that the UK will, in her view, formally leave the EU, without the option of a second referendum or a parliamentary override. 我认为这句话的意思是,在她看来,英国将正式脱离欧盟——不会出现二次全民公投或是议会推翻公投结果的情况。If so, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the outcome will be hard Brexit.如果这样的话,看起来极有可能的结果将是一场硬退hard Brexit)。By hard Brexit I mean a departure not only from the EU but also from the customs union and the single market. 使用硬退欧一词,我的意思是,英国不仅将脱离欧盟,还将退出关税同盟和单一市场。The UK should, however, end up with a free-trade arrangement that covers goods and possibly some parts of services and, one hopes, liberal travel arrangements. 然而,英国最终应当达成一项涵盖商品、或许还包括部分务的自由贸易安排,人们希望还能达成自由旅行安排。But the passporting of UK-based financial institutions would end and London would cease to be the EU’s unrivalled financial capital. 但总部在英国的金融机构的护照将失效,伦敦将不再是欧盟首屈一指的金融中心。The UK and the EU would also impose controls on their nationalsability to work in one another’s economies.英国和欧盟还将对各自的公民到彼此经济体中工作的能力加以限制。This is not the outcome many desire. 这并非很多人希望看到的结果。As the Japanese government has made brutally clear, many Japanese businesses invested in the UK in the justified belief that the latter would provide a stable base for trade with the rest of the EU on terms as favourable as those available to producers anywhere else. 正如日本政府已经非常明确地表明的,许多日本企业当初投资英国时,理所当然地相信英国可以提供一个稳固的基地,让它们能够以不输于其他任何地方制造商的优越条件与欧盟其他地区进行贸易。These businesses are understandably worried about their prospects. 这些企业对自身前景的担忧是可以理解的。The same applies to many others whose plans were made on the assumption that the UK had a settled policy of staying inside the EU.其他许多将规划建立在假定英国有留在欧盟的确定政策之上的企业,也面临同样的情况。Hard Brexit would disrupt their plans.Should the UK leave the customs union and enter a free-trade agreement with the EU, rules of origin would apply to exports of goods from the UK to the EU. 硬退欧将打乱这些企业的计划。如果英国退出关税同盟并与欧盟签署自由贸易协定,原产地规则将适用于英国向欧盟的货物出口。This standard bureaucratic procedure would be needed to ensure that imports into the UK did not become a route to circumvent the EU’s external tariff. 为确保英国的进口不会成为绕过欧盟对外关税的路径,这套标准的官僚程序是必要的。Rules of origin would put UK-based exporters at a disadvantage vis-à-vis those based in the EU. 原产地规则将使得在英国的出口商相对于那些在欧盟的出口商处于不利地位。The same would be true for, in particular, banks should the UK leave the single market.如果英国脱离单一市场的话,同样的情况也将适用于其他类型的企业,尤其是。Why then is a hard Brexit the most likely outcome? My belief rests on the view that this UK government will not seek to reverse the result of the vote and that it will feel obliged to impose controls on immigration from the EU and to free itself from the bloc’s regulations overseen by its judicial processes.那么,为什么硬退欧会是最可能的结果?我的理由是:本届英国政府将不会设法扭转此次公投的结果,而且它将认为自己必须控制来自欧盟的移民,必须让自身摆脱受到欧盟司法程序管理的欧盟监管规定。Continued membership of the customs union or the single market, from outside the EU, would deprive the UK of legislative autonomy. 退出欧盟但继续保留为关税同盟或单一市场的成员,将使英国失去立法自主权。The former would mean it could not adopt its own trade policy. 留在关税同盟意味着英国无法实施自己的贸易政策。The latter would mean accepting all regulations relating to the single market, without possessing any say on them, continuing with free movement of labour, and, probably, paying budget contributions. 留在单一市场意味着接受与单一市场相关的所有监管规定,却对这些规定没有任何发言权,还得继续持劳动力自由流动,可能还要出钱分担预算。A country that has rejected membership is not going to accept so humiliating an alternative. It would be a state of dependence far worse than continued EU membership.一个拒绝了欧盟成员资格的国家不会接受一个如此侮辱性的替代选择,如果接受这种选择,那将意味着一种比继续留在欧盟还要严重得多的依赖状态。The only reasonable alternative to hard Brexit would be to stay inside the EU. 如果不想硬退欧,唯一合理的替代选择就是留在欧盟。Parliament is constitutionally entitled to ignore the vote result. 根据宪法,议会有权无视此次公投结果。The people could also be asked if they wanted to change their minds. 也可以问问英国人民是不是想改变主意。But the Conservatives would surely follow Labour into ruin if they tried to reverse the outcome. 但如果保守党试图扭转公投结果的的话,它无疑将会步工党的后尘、陷入内乱。Their Brexiters would go berserk.保守党中持退欧的人士会气疯。Of course, it is logically possible that the EU might alter the terms of engagement. 当然,欧盟改变合作条款在逻辑上也是可能的。It might, for example, change its mind on the sacred status of free movement. 例如,欧盟或许会改变观念,不再将人口自由流动视为一条神圣不可侵犯的原则。If it had done so, the referendum would surely have had a different result. 如果欧盟早这样做的话,退欧公投必然会出现一个不同的结果。But this now looks near inconceivable.但如今,这看起来几乎是匪夷所思的。If hard Brexit is, indeed, the destination, the aim must be to get there with the minimum of damage to both sides. 如果结局真的只能是硬退欧,那我们的目标必须是将双方的损失降到最低。Some Brexiters propose that the UK should repeal the European Communities Act, rather than go through Article 50. 一些退欧派人士提出,英国应废除《欧共体法European Communities Act),而非走里斯本条约0Article 50)的程序。That would violate its treaty obligations. 这样做将违反英国的条约义务。Such egregious treaty breaking would hardly be a helpful precursor to the negotiation of trade agreements.此类破坏条约的糟糕行为将不利于未来的贸易协定谈判。It is essential for the UK’s future to go through the formal process of negotiating a departure. 走谈判退出欧盟的正式程序,对于英国的未来至关重要。But, as Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform notes, that will be just one of six tough negotiations. 但正如欧洲改革中Centre for European Reform)的查尔斯#8226;格兰Charles Grant)指出的,这将只是6场艰苦谈判当中的一场。The others will be: an ultimate trade pact with the EU; an interim agreement with the bloc, to cover the period between exit and the longer-term deal; re-entry into the World Trade Organisation as a full member; new arrangements with the 50 or so countries that now have an accord with the EU and, presumably, with additional countries, too, such as the US and China; and, finally, UK-EU ties in foreign and defence policy, police and judicial co-operation and counter-terrorism.其他谈判还包括:与欧盟最终的贸易协定;在英国退出欧盟后、长期协定签署前临时发挥作用的过渡性协定;重新以独立成员身份加入世界贸易组WTO);与现在与欧盟签有协议的0个国家谈判新的安排(应该还要与美囀?中国等国谈判新安排);最后是英国与欧盟在外交与国防政策、警察和司法合作以及反恐方面的关系。Make no mistake, this is going to take years. 别想错,这一过程将需要数年时间。A decision to adopt unilateral free trade, proposed by some Brexiters, would simplify this. 采用单边自由贸易(如一些退欧派提出的)的决定将简化这一进程。It will not happen.但这不会发生。In all this, the crucial negotiation, to accompany talks under Article 50, is over transitional arrangements, to ensure the UK does not lose all preferential access to EU markets upon leaving.其中,至关重要的谈判(伴随依照第50条的谈判)是围绕过渡期安排的,以确保英国不会一退欧就失去所有进入欧盟市场的优惠条件。Ideally, this deal should be some sort of free trade plus. 理论上,这一协议应该是某种形式的自由贸易+。How much it could be plus depends on flexibility on both sides, especially over free movement. +多少取决于双方的灵活性,尤其在人口自由流动方面。In practice, it would probably not be very plus. 实际上,很可能不多少。But the UK government should state that it will not trigger Article 50 until the EU agrees to discuss a transitional agreement that, ideally, would be close to a final one.但英国政府应声明,在欧盟同意谈判过渡性协议(如果过渡性协议能够接近最终协议是最理想的)之前,它不会触发0条。Do I like this outcome? No. 我喜欢这样的结果吗?不。I would like a government prepared to overturn the referendum. 我更希望政府愿意推翻上次的公投结果。Nothing has changed my view that the UK is making a huge economic and strategic blunder. 我依然坚信,英国正在犯下一个巨大的经济和战略错误。The country is going to be meaner and poorer. 英国将变得更破、更穷。David Cameron will go down as one of the worst prime ministers in UK history. 戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)将成为英国历史上最糟糕的首相之一。But the halfway houses between membership of the EU and hard Brexit are uninhabitable. 但在留欧与硬退欧之间,没有走得通的中间道路。So what now has to be done is to move to the miserable new dispensation as smoothly as possible.所以,现在必须做的就是尽可能平稳地转移到令人痛苦的新位置。The UK has chosen a largely illusory autonomy over EU membership. 英国抛弃欧盟成员国资格,选择了很大程度上徒有虚名的自主权。That has consequences. 选了,就要承担后果。It will have to accept this grim reality and move as quickly as it can to whatever the future holds.英国将不得不接受这一残酷现实,尽可能快地奔向未来——无论会遇到什么。来 /201609/468725

文章编辑: 周生活