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萧山人民医院神经专科京东卫生

2019年09月17日 01:06:40 | 作者:健康新闻 | 来源:新华社
Yesterday Thailands military leadership went on state TV and announced they were seizing power. Vowing to ;restore peace in a short time and reform government policy,; the generals formed the ;National Peace and Order Maintaining Command,; dissolved the cabinet, threw out the constitution (itself the product of the countrys 2006 coup) and declared a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. TVs across the country broadcast a static image of a Thai military logo and patriotic songs as news of Thailands 19th military coup in 82 years—a handful of those werent successful—sunk in.52日,泰国军方领导人在国家电视台宣布夺取政权。为了“在短时间内恢复和平和改革政府政策”,军方成立了“国家和平与秩序维持司令部”(National Peace and Order Maintaining Command),并解散内阁,废除宪法(现行宪法也006年政变的产物),同时宣布,从晚上10点到凌晨5点实行宵禁。泰2年以来第19次军事政变(历次政变中,有些并没有成功)的消息传出后,全国电视频道均播放带有军方标志的静态画面和爱国歌曲。Not a first, certainly. Military coups in Thailand happen almost as often as American presidential elections. And though Thailands military had hinted they were done with all that, No. 19 was not totally unexpected. Gripped by political conflict for years (since its last coup, really), the country had recently arrived again at political impasse: For months there have been rumors of impending military intervention and on Tuesday, the military imposed martial law.这当然不是第一次。泰国的军事政变就像美国的总统大选一样频繁。虽然泰国军方曾经暗示,他们不会再发起政变,但第19次军事政变一点都不意外。经过持续多年的政治冲突(自上一次政变以来),泰国最近再次陷入了政治僵局:数月以来,一直有传闻称军方将进行干预,周二,泰国军方终于实行了戒严令。Still, the coups timing was peculiar—a sharp turn in an afternoon that had brought the nations political leaders to the Thai Army Club, ostensibly to talk their way to a resolution of the crisis. (This was the second day of army-brokered negotiations and a military spokesperson had characterized the first as positive.)这次政变的时机也颇为耐人寻味——当天下午,泰国军方召集各方政治领导人前往泰国陆军俱乐部,表面上看是要讨论如何解决危机,但后来的形势却急转直下。(这是泰国军方召集谈判的第二天,一位军方发言人曾称第一天的谈判是“积极的”。)Obviously, that didnt happen. The junta detained the political leaders, and then announced on TV they were taking over. They rounded up 150 more today, including Yingluck Shinawatra, the Thai Prime Minister who was ousted two weeks ago by the nations Constitutional Court.很显然,会谈没有成功。军方扣押了政治领导人,并在电视上宣布接管政权。第二天,泰国军方又逮捕50人,包括两周前被泰国宪法法院赶下台的总理英拉o西那瓦。So what does this mess mean for Thailand and its aly weakened那么,对于泰国及其已经非常脆弱的经济,这种混乱的局势到底意味着什么?As Ive written before, Thailand has traditionally weathered coups and political instability quite well. Its last coup, which ousted media tycoon-turned-PM Thaksin Shinawatra (the brother of the recently ousted prime minister) in 2006, was even called the ;silk coup; it went down so smoothly. The morning after tanks rolled in, Thais were on the streets presenting soldiers with roses.正如笔者之前所写,泰国曾成功渡过多次政变和政治动荡006年,从媒体大亨当选总理的他信o西那瓦(英拉的哥哥)在上一次政变中被赶下台。那次政变甚至被称作“丝绸政变”,最终也顺利结束。坦克滚滚而来的第二天上午,泰国人便走上街头,向士兵们送上玫瑰花。In a note earlier this week, Barnabas Gan, an analyst with OC Bank, wrote, ;Historically, a military intervention has been effective in ending political strife and establishing a legitimate government presence.; He added that martial law was likely just the Ya Kom, or ;bitter medicine,; the politically and economically ailing nation needed.上周早些时候,华侨(OC Bank)分析师巴纳巴斯o贾恩曾写道:“历史上,军事干预一直都是结束政治冲突和建立合法政府的有效方法。”他补充道,戒严令就像是“苦口良药”,正是在政治和经济上患病的国家所需要的。Yet, there are also reasons to think things will not be so, uh, rosy this go round. A lot has happened since 2006—much of it the fallout from that smooth-as-silk coup. Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, nevertheless remains popular and at the heart of Thailands political problems. (Since being deposed, hes had a brother-in-law, a younger sister, and a close business crony in the seat of power). His political base, much of which comes from Thailands rural provinces, is increasingly wealthy, educated, and unwilling to tolerate the undemocratic developments dealt them by the countrys elites. That anti-coup demonstrations sprung up today in Bangkok is a show of that and a sure sign the coup will only add to that list of grievances and to the likelihood of more violence.但我们也有理由认为,军事政变这一次不会那么美奀?自2006年以来发生了许多事——其中大多数都是上一次如丝绸般平滑的军事政变的副作用。目前住在迪拜的他信处于自我放逐的状态,但他在泰国国内仍然有许多持者,也是泰国政治问题的核心。(自被罢免之后,他信的夫、和商业密友曾先后执掌政权)。他的政治基础大多来自泰国农村,这些地区越来越富有,受教育程度也越来越高,民众不再愿意接受泰国精英阶层非民主的统治。曼谷今天爆发的反军事政变游行就表明了这种现状,更说明军事政变只会加深积怨,增加爆发更多暴力冲突的可胀?Ultimately, that will not be a good thing for business. Nor in the very short term, will the post-coup curfew, which has aly disrupted tourist plans—even Bangkoks notoriously seedy red light districts reportedly shut down—and night shifts at the nations many automobile plants. (Honda, Toyota and Ford are among car manufacturers there.)最后,军事政变对商业也没有好处。而在短时间内,政变之后的宵禁同样不利于商业,而且已经影响了游客的计划。据报道,连曼谷臭名昭著的红灯区也已被关闭。而且泰国许多汽车工厂的夜班工人也受到了影响。【泰国的汽车制造商包括本田汽车公司(Honda)、丰田汽车公司(Toyota)和福特汽车公司(Ford)等。】Adithep Vanabriksha, CIO at Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand, says much of the countrys economic fate relies on how quickly the junta can live up to their name. ;Going forward, key questions remain unanswered: who will lead the interim government, how long the military will remain in control, when the next elections will be held. The effectiveness of the interim government and the speedy return to electoral democracy will be key to reviving the sagging economy.;泰国安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand)CIO阿迪蒂普表示,泰国的经济命运很大程度上取决于军方需要多长时间来兑现承诺。“未来的关键问题仍未解决:将由谁来领导临时政府,军方将掌权多长时间,何时举行下一次选举。临时政府的有效性和迅速恢复民主选举将是低迷的泰国经济能否实现振兴的关键。”Thats no easy task. He adds, ;Longer term, the underlying reasons for the deep divisions are still haunting Thailand and will need to be addressed before a lasting solution can be found.;但这并不容易。他补充说:“从更长远来看,造成深度分歧的根本原因依旧笼罩着泰国,只有解决了这些分歧,才能为泰国找到持久的解决方案。 /201405/302095In Japan “I am Kenjihas replaced “I am Charlieas the rallying cry of choice. The Kenji in question is Kenji Goto, a respected freelance journalist captured by militants from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) in Syria. On Saturday, a was released of Mr Goto wearing a now all-too-familiar orange jump suit. He was holding up a photograph of what appeared to be the body of another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa, who was almost certainly beheaded after Tokyo refused to pay a 0m ransom. Isis is demanding the release of an al-Qaeda militant being held in Jordan. If she is not freed, it has warned, Mr Goto will be the next to die.Much more than the fate of Mr Goto hangs in the balance. Japan’s foreign policy, rooted in its pacifist constitution, stands at a tipping point. How the public reacts to the fate of Mr Goto could have a big influence on where things go from here.Two related changes are under way. First Shinzo Abe, the conservative prime minister, is seeking to establish a more robust defence posture, one he has termed “proactive pacifism That doctrine has been used to justify everything from selling arms to allies until recently strictly forbidden to beefing up maritime defence around islands disputed with China.In particular, he wants to change a constitutional interpretation that bars Japan from helping allies if they come under attack. Ideally, he would also like to scrap article nine of Japan’s 1947 constitution, in which Tokyo forever renounces the right to wage war. In practice, that is likely to prove impossible because a strongly pacifist public would almost certainly reject such an amendment in an obligatory referendum.Second, after years in which Tokyo sought to present itself as neutral on the world stage, Mr Abe is trying to nudge Japan towards taking a stand. Since the second world war, Japan has pursued what has been imaginatively called “omnidirectional diplomacy Crudely put, that has meant pretending to be everyone’s friend while pursuing its own economic interests. Meanwhile, the nasty business of defending Japan has been outsourced to the US.Omnidirectional diplomacy has had its uses. In 1973, for example, faced with a ruinous oil embargo, Japanese diplomats distanced themselves from US support of Israel in the Yom Kippur war by presenting Tokyo as a friend to the Arab world. Oil flowed to Japan again. A decade ago, Tokyo played a similar card in Iran. By wooing Tehran, it won a concession to the huge Azadegan oilfield only for Washington to scupper the deal in the name of sanctions. The illusion of neutrality is becoming harder to pull off[NOT QUITE CLEAR ON THIS SENTENCE?]. Japan’s economic clout has waned, and geostrategic faultlines have widened with the rise of China and the 9/11 attacks on the US.The hostage crisis could cut both ways for Mr Abe’s foreign policy ambitions. He will try to use the incident as evidence that Japan needs to stand up for itself more. Unlike many other nations, it has no commando unit y to mount a rescue mission nor any constitutional leeway to take military action against foreign forces who seek to harm its nationals.Yukio Okamoto, a defence expert and supporter of Mr Abe’s diplomatic agenda, says the kidnapping has exposed the Japanese public to the world’s uncomfortable realities. “We can no longer hide behind camouflaged neutrality,he says.Many in Japan will draw precisely the opposite conclusion. The incident, they will say, shows the perils of being sucked into foreign adventures. From the isolation and rarefied comfort of Japan, the rest of the world can seem like a blood-curdling place in which monotheistic religions vie for supremacy. Mr Abe has been criticised in parliament for offering 0m in humanitarian support to opponents of Isis. That, say critics, was a like a red rag to the fundamentalist bull.“Many people are saying: ‘Why do we want to be America’s deputy sheriff? Do we really want to stick our necks out?’says Jeff Kingston, a professor of international studies at Tokyo’s Temple University. The outcome of the debate may well hinge on the fate of Mr Goto.Unlike the executed Yukawa, a fantasist who stumbled into the Middle East after claiming to be the reincarnation of a Manchu princess, Mr Goto elicits plenty of public sympathy. A humanitarian who has devoted much of his journalistic career to exposing the hardships of children in war zones, he went to Syria in a desperate attempt to rescue the hapless Yukawa.If he is released, as seemed possible yesterday, Mr Abe’s hand will be strengthened. His no-compromise diplomacy will be seen to have borne results, even if Mr Goto’s freedom is won through a Jordanian hostage exchange. If on the other hand, Mr Goto ends up dead, public support for foreign engagement could waver.That could make it harder for Mr Abe to pass laws needed to bolster his constitutional reinterpretation. In the long run, however, any setback is likely to be temporary. The world is changing. China is pressing its territorial claims on Japan. The US is seen by many in Tokyo as an undependable ally, unlikely, if push comes to shove, to spill American blood in Japan’s defence. Meanwhile, the Middle East, on whose oil Japan remains dependent, has gone up in ideological flames. For Tokyo, the days of sitting on the fence are ending.在日本,“我是健二”已取代“我是查理”成为最流行的口号。这里的健二是指后藤健二(Kenji Goto),一位倍受尊敬的、被叙利亚“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)武装分子虏获的自由记者。上周六,健二穿着人们现在已再熟悉不过的橙色连体衣出现在一段被公布的视频中。他手中举着一张照片,上面似乎是另一名日本人质汤川遥Haruna Yukawa)的尸体——几乎可以肯定,在日本政府拒绝亿美元赎金之后,汤川遥菜已被斩首。ISIS要求释放关押在约旦的一名基地组织女武装分子。ISIS警告称,如果不释放此人,健二将成为下一个被斩首的对象。不只是健二的命运前途未卜。植根于其和平宪法的日本外交政策正处于一个临界点。公众对健二的命运做出什么反应,可能对今后局势的发展具有重要的影响。两个相关的改变正在发生。首先,持保守主义立场的日本首相安倍晋Shinzo Abe)正在寻求建立一种更为坚定的防御姿态——他将此称为“积极的和平主义proactive pacifism)。日本利用这一原则来明其从向盟国出售军火(直至最近才被严厉禁止)到在与中国存在纠纷的岛屿附近增强海上防御力量等所有行动的正当性。特别是,他希望修改禁止日本在盟国受到攻击时出兵援助的宪法解释。理想情况下,他还希望废除日947年宪法第九条——其主要内容是,日本政府永久性放弃发动战争的权利。在现实中,事实可能明这是不可能的,因为这类修订必须要举行全民公投,而几乎可以肯定,强烈热爱和平的日本公众不会同意。其次,在日本多年寻求在世界舞台上树立中立形象之后,安倍晋三正努力推动日本摆明立场。自二战以来,日本推行的是一种被创造性地称为“全方位外交”的政策。大致来说,这意味着日本要装扮成所有人的朋友,同时追求自己的经济利益。与此同时,棘手的日本防务事务被外包给了美国。全方位外交有它的用处。例如,973年,面对破坏性的石油禁运局面,日本外交官将日本展示为阿拉伯世界的朋友,没有在赎罪日战争中与美国一起持以色列。石油再次流向了日本。十年前,日本政府在伊朗采取了类似的做法。通过向德黑兰示好,日本赢得了石油储量巨大的阿扎德Azadegan)油田的开采权,只是后来美国以制裁的名义才破坏了该协议。日本现在越来越难以维持中立假象。日本的经济影响力已经下降,而随着中国崛起和美国爆11恐怖袭击事件,地缘政治断层线也在扩大。对安倍晋三的外交政策抱负来说,人质危机既有利也有弊。他将努力利用该事件表明,日本需要加大保护自己的力度。与其他许多国家不同,日本没有突击队展开救援行动,在宪法上也没有对寻求伤害其国民的外国力量采取军事行动的空间。持安倍晋三外交议程的防务专家冈本行夫(Yukio Okamoto)表示,人质事件让日本公众认识到了这个世界令人不安的现实。他说:“我们不能再躲藏在伪装的中立形象背后了。”日本有许多人将会得出正好相反的结论。他们将会说,该事件表明卷入海外行动非常危险。与日本的与世隔绝和宁静祥和不同,世界其他地区似乎是一个令人毛骨悚然的地区,各种一神论宗教竞相宣称只有自己才具有至高无上的地位。由于向ISIS的对手提供了2亿美元的人道主义援助,安倍晋三一直在议会受到批评。批评者称,这激怒了原教旨主义者。东京天普大Temple University)从事国际研究的杰#8226;金斯Jeff Kingston)教授表示:“许多人会说:‘我们为何想要成为美国的副警长?我们真的想要惹祸上身吗?’”这种辩论的结果可能取决于健二的命运。与被斩首的汤川遥菜不同——汤川遥菜是一名幻想家,他在宣称自己是清朝的一名公主转世之后进入中东地区——健二引起了公众的强烈同情。健二是一名人道主义者,他在其大部分记者职业生涯中都致力于报道战区儿童的艰辛。他来到叙利亚,准备孤注一掷地营救不幸的汤川遥菜。如果健二获释(从昨天的情况来看,这似乎有可能),安倍的影响力将得到加强。他的不妥协外交政策将被视为取得了成果,即便健二的获释是通过交换约旦战俘取得的。另一方面,如果健二最终死亡,公众对安倍海外行动的持可能会动摇。这可能让安倍晋三更难推动通过持其重新解释宪法所需的法律。然而,长期而言,任何挫折都可能是暂时的。世界正在改变。中国正在强硬地对日本提出领土主张。美国被东京许多人视为不可信赖的盟友,当到了紧要关头,美国不太可能牺牲美国人的生命来为日本提供防务。与此同时,中东地区已然置身于意识形态的大火——日本如今依然依赖该地区的石油供应。对日本政府来说,骑墙的日子即将结束

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