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2019年08月24日 07:12:15|来源:国际在线|编辑:预约大全
Donald Trump is likely to face an early test of will from China, according to Asian security experts, with the region desperate to know how the president-elect of the only superpower will react.一些亚洲安全专家称,唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)很可能在任期的较早阶段面临来自中国的意志考验。目前亚太地区迫切想知道唯一超级大国的当选总统将如何反应。US allies and adversaries alike are wondering which is the real Mr Trump: the isolationist who says Japan and South Korea should develop nuclear weapons and pay for their security, or the Republican who is surrounding himself with hawkish advisers on China.美国的盟友和对手都在揣测哪一个才是真正的特朗普:提出日本和韩国应该发展核武器并且为自己的安全买单的那个孤立主义者,还是那个身边都是对华鹰派顾问的共和党人?What that early test reveals is likely to determine how far the next president will reshape diplomacy in Asia, and whether traditional allies such as Taiwan continue to rely on US protection.早期考验的结果,很可能决定下一届总统将在重塑亚洲的外交格局方面走多远,以及台湾这样的传统盟友能否继续依靠美国的保护。“China will probably keep adding pressure on the Trump government to test their limits,” said Ni Lexiong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. “Trump’s election can either make peace in the east Asia region or create mass chaos.”“中国很可能会不断地对特朗普政府施压,以试探其底线,”上海政法学院教授倪乐雄表示。“特朗普的当选可能给东亚地区带来和平,也可能造成大规模混乱。”In 2001 the Hainan island incident, when a Chinese fighter collided with a US intelligence-gathering aircraft, applied heavy pressure early on in the presidency of George W Bush.2001年发生的海南岛事件(一架中国战斗机与一架美军侦察机相撞),在乔治.W.布什(George W Bush)总统任期的早期施加了巨大压力。Mr Trump has sought to reassure allies in Asia, speaking by telephone with Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, and Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s president. Mr Abe plans to meet the president-elect in New York next week. “His approach to Mr Trump should be very thoughtful,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University.特朗普已寻求让亚洲盟友放心,他与日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)和韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)都通了电话。安倍计划下周在纽约会晤当选总统。“他对待特朗普的方式应该非常深思熟虑,”京都立命馆大学(Ritsumeikan University)客座教授宫家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)表示。Mr Trump’s early actions suggest a traditional Republican approach. “The Chinese think they know businessmen,” said Yanmei Xie, China policy analyst for Gavekal Dragonomics. “They know how to massage the ego of a powerful dictatorial strongman, so they think they can handle him. But now his advisers are emerging and they hold very strong anti-Chinese views.”特朗普的初步作为似乎带有共和党传统做法的意味。“中方认为自己看得懂商人,”龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中国政策分析师谢艳梅(音)表示。“他们明白如何把握一个实权在握的独裁强人的自我,所以他们认为自己能够对付他。但现在他的顾问正在一个接一个浮出水面,而这些人都抱有非常强烈的反华观点。”Those advisers include: Alexander Gray, who worked for Randy Forbes, a Republican congressman and critic of Beijing; Mike Pillsbury, author of The Hundred-Year Marathon, which argues that China is gearing up for world domination; and Peter Navarro, an academic who directed and produced the film Death By China: Confronting the Dragon.这些顾问包括:亚历山大.格雷(Alexander Gray),曾为批评北京方面的共和党众议员兰迪.福布斯(Randy Forbes)工作;白邦瑞(Mike Pillsbury),《百年马拉松》(The Hundred-Year Marathon)的作者,认为中国正准备主宰世界;以及学者彼得.纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro),他曾经导演和制作电影《致命中国:与龙对抗》(Death By China: Confronting the Dragon)。If Mr Trump responds robustly to any Chinese test, US allies will be relieved and could even adjust security budgets.如果特朗普对中国的任何考验做出强有力的回应,美国的盟友将会放心,甚至可能调整安全预算。“Maybe we have to do a little bit more about our own defence,” said Yoshiji Nogami, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs. “I think Mr Abe is aware of that, although whether it’s acceptable to a majority of people here in Japan I don’t know.”“也许我们不得不为自己的国防多出一点力,”日本国际问题研究所(Japan Institute of International Affairs)所长野上义二(Yoshiji Nogami)表示。“我认为安倍君知道这一点,至于这是不是大多数日本人都能接受的事情,我就不知道了。”Until Mr Trump demonstrates his commitment to Asia, however, the region’s anxiety level will remain high. “If Trump doesn’t think it is worth it to clash with Russia over Nato, I shudder to consider how he might feel about a clash with China over Taiwan,” said Nathan Batto at Academia Sinica, a research body in Taipei.然而,在特朗普展现出对亚洲的承诺之前,该地区的焦虑程度将保持在高位。“如果特朗普认为不值得为了北约(Nato)与俄罗斯发生冲突,我简直不敢想象他对于为了台湾与中国发生冲突会有多少意愿,”台北中央研究院(Academia Sinica)的内森.巴托(Nathan Batto)表示。The big changes in Asia will come if Mr Trump pursues isolationism. “Given the stresses the US-South Korean alliance seems to be facing, Beijing is going to look for every way to insert itself,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.如果特朗普一心追求孤立主义,亚洲将会发生巨大变化。“鉴于美韩同盟似乎面临的压力,北京方面将寻找各种方式插一脚,”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)表示。It would do so, he added, by playing its “strong cards” — such as telling South Koreans not to install the Thaad US missile system — but also by softer means, such as saying: “Look, you can rely on us and you can’t rely on the Americans.”他补充说,在这方面,中国将会双管齐下,一方面打出“强硬牌”,例如告诉韩方不要让美国部署末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD),另一方面使出比较柔软的手段,比如对韩方说:“瞧,你们可以依靠我们,你们依靠不了美国人。”If that created a power vacuum, said Ms Xie, “it could create opportunities for China”. Weaker countries could become more accommodating of Beijing, while stronger ones boosted their defence capability. “It could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Asia.”龙洲经讯的谢艳梅表示,如果这造成了实力真空,“那就可能给中国创造机会”。较弱的国家可能变得对北京方面更加逆来顺受,而较强的国家可能提高其国防能力。“这可能从根本上改变亚洲的实力平衡。” /201611/477646Republicans appeared likely to defy predictions and retain control of the US Senate on Tuesday, a remarkable turnabout from election eve forecasts.周二,美国共和党(Republican)似乎很有可能打破人们的预期,继续保持对美国参议院(US Senate)的控制,这一局面相对于大选前夕的预测可谓180度大转弯。Embattled Republicans such as Senator Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, were re-elected in tough fights. 包括参议院情报委员会主席理查德.伯尔(Richard Burr)在内,严阵以待的共和党人经过艰难的选战得以重新当选。Senator Marco Rubio, whose presidential bid fell short, beat his Democratic rival Patrick Murphy. 在总统初选中败北的参议员马尔科.鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)击败了民主党对手帕特里克.墨菲(Patrick Murphy)。Mr Rubio is regarded as a potential White House candidate in 2020, having declined to promise to serve his entire six-year Senate term. 被视为2020年潜在总统候选人的鲁比奥,已拒绝承诺干完整个为期六年的参议员任期。In Indiana, former Senator Evan Bayh was defeated in his bid to regain his seat for the Democrats. 在印第安纳州,前参议员埃文.贝赫(Evan Bayh)在为民主党重新争取参议员席位的竞争中败北。Mr Bayh, who held the seat through 2010, was hurt by his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, losing to Representative Todd Young. 贝赫此前持有该席位一直到2010年,他输在了不干参议员后去作游说者的经历上,击败他的是转而竞选参议员的现众议员托德.扬(Todd Young)。In a battle of current and former Wisconsin senators, incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson beat Democrat Russ Feingold, who previously served in the upper chamber.在威斯康星州现任参议员与前任参议员展开的一场竞争中,现任共和党参议员罗恩.约翰逊(Ron Johnson)击败了曾任参议员的民主党人拉斯.法因戈尔德(Russ Feingold)。The Senate is currently divided between 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, 目前,美国参议院的席位分配是共和党占54席,民主党占46席。with a total of 10 Democratic seats and 24 Republican up for grabs in Tuesday’s balloting. 周二需要投票表决的,总共包括10个民主党席位和24个共和党席位。With Republican nominee Donald Trump leading at 11pm, the Republican performance in Senate races raised the prospect of single-party control of the US government for the first time since President Barack Obama’s first two years in office. 考虑到共和党总统候选人唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在当地时间晚11点的投票统计结果中处于领先,共和党人在参议院竞选中的表现引出了美国政府被单一政党控制的可能性。这将是自美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)上任头两年之后美国政府首次出现这种格局。The House of Representatives also remains in Republican hands. 目前,众议院也在共和党的控制之下。The Senate outcome could deal a death blow to the pending Supreme Court nomination of Judge Merrick Garland, and could set up a test of duelling Republican agendas between a President-elect Trump and House speaker Paul Ryan. 参议院的选举结果可能会对正悬而未决的任命梅里克.加兰(Merrick Garland)担任最高法院法官一事造成致命打击。 /201611/477176

The mass shooting in Orlando on Sunday was appalling in scale: 49 killed in a single attack. But it’s not unusual for dozens of Americans to be killed by guns in a single day.周日的奥兰多击事件之惨痛是骇人听闻的:一场袭击便夺走了49人的生命。但数十名美国人在一天内被杀则并不罕见。Gun homicides are a common cause of death in the ed States, killing about as many people as car crashes (not counting van, truck, motorcycle or bus accidents). Some cases command our attention more than others, of course. Counting mass shootings that make headlines and the thousands of Americans murdered one or a few at a time, gunshot homicides totaled 8,124 in 2014, according to the F.B.I.杀在美国是一个常见死因,致死人数与小汽车事故相当(不包括货车、卡车、托车和公交车事故)。当然了,其中一些案件格外受到关注。联邦调查局(FBI)的数据显示,算上登上头条的大规模击事件,以及遇害者为一名或几名美国人的数千起袭击,2014年共有8124人被杀。This level of violence makes the ed States an extreme outlier when measured against the experience of other advanced countries.相较于其他发达国家的情况,这种暴力程度让美国成了一个极不寻常的国度。Around the world, those countries have substantially lower rates of deaths from gun homicide. In Germany, being murdered with a gun is as uncommon as being killed by a falling object in the ed States. About two people out of every million are killed in a gun homicide. Gun homicides are just as rare in several other European countries, including the Netherlands and Austria. In the ed States, two per million is roughly the death rate for hypothermia or plane crashes.其他发达国家的涉命案数远远低于美国。在德国,涉谋杀致死的罕见程度,与美国的高空坠物致死不相上下。每100万人里,约有两人会成为涉杀人案的遇害者。在包括荷兰、奥地利在内的其他几个欧洲国家中,涉杀人案同样罕见。在美国,百万分之二差不多是低体温症或者飞机失事的致死率。In Poland and England, only about one out of every million people die in gun homicides each year — about as often as an American dies in an agricultural accident or falling from a ladder. In Japan, where gun homicides are even rarer, the likelihood of dying this way is about the same as an American’s chance of being killed by lightning — roughly one in 10 million.在波兰和英国,每100万人中,每年约有一人死于涉杀人案——跟美国的务农事故或者摔下梯子的致死率差不多。在涉杀人案更为罕见的日本,被人杀的概率跟在美国遭雷击死亡是一样的——约为千万分之一。In the ed States, the death rate from gun homicides is about 31 per million people — the equivalent of 27 people shot dead every day of the year. The homicides include losses from mass shootings, like Sunday’s Orlando attack, or the San Bernardino, Calif., shooting last December. And of course, they also include the country’s vastly more common single-victim killings.在美国,涉杀人死亡率约为百万分之三十一——相当于每年的每一天都有27人被杀。这些杀人案包括了造成多人死亡的大规模击事件,比如周日的奥兰多击案,以及去年12月的加州圣贝纳迪诺击案。当然也包括常见得多的一人死亡杀人案。To give you a sense of how unusual America’s gun violence problem is, consider the daily death toll compared with other Western democracies. The chart below imagines that the populations of those countries were the same as the population of the ed States.对比美国与其他西方民主国家的每日死亡人数,可以体会到美国暴力问题的异常性。下面的图表假设各国的人口与美国相当。International comparisons help highlight how exceptional the ed States: In a nation where the right to bear arms is cherished by much of the population, gun homicides are a significant public health concern. For men 15 to 29, they are the third-leading cause of death, after accidents and suicides. In other high-income countries, gun homicides are unusual events. Last year’s Paris attacks killed 130 people, which is nearly as many as die from gun homicides in all of France in a typical year. But even if France had a mass shooting as deadly as the Paris attacks every month, its annual rate of gun homicide death would be lower than that in the ed States.国际层面的比较有助于突显美国的情况是多么不寻常:在一个很多人都极为珍视持权的国度里,涉杀人成了重大的公共健康问题。在15岁至29岁的男性中,涉杀人是第三大死因。在其他高收入国家中,涉杀人案难得一见。去年,巴黎恐袭导致130人丧生,这几乎相当于普通年份里全法国的涉杀人死亡人数。但即便法国每个月都发生一起致命程度与巴黎恐袭相当的大规模击案,其每年的涉杀人死亡率还是会低于美国。The accompanying table shows the mortality rates for gun homicides in a variety of countries, along with a correspondingly likely cause of death in the ed States.所附表格列明了不同国家的涉杀人死亡率,及其相当于在美国由哪种原因造成的死亡率。Our gun homicide numbers come from the Small Arms Survey, a Swiss nonprofit affiliated with the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, and represent the average gun homicide death rates in those countries between 2007 and 2012. The ed States death rates come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over those same years. There are more recent statistics on American gun deaths, like the F.B.I. number at the top of this article, but we chose these years to provide fair comparisons. We focused on the rates of gun homicides; the overall rate of gun deaths is substantially higher, because suicides make up a majority of gun deaths in the ed States and are also higher than in other developed countries.我们的涉杀人数据来自日内瓦高级国际关系及发展学院(Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)所属的瑞士非盈利机构“小武器问题调查”(Small Arms Survey),其中列明了2007至2009年间这些国家的涉他杀死亡率均值。美国同期的死亡率数据来自美国疾病控制与预防中心(Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention)。关于美国的涉死亡人数,有更多近期的统计数据,例如本文开头来自FBI的数字,但为了做出更为公正的比较,我们选择了上述时间段。我们所关注的是涉他杀死亡率;总体涉死亡率比这高得多——因为在美国涉死亡大部分是自杀——而且也高于其他发达国家。The table is not meant to make light of rare causes of death. Instead, we show them as a way to help think meaningfully about the differences among gun death rates.这个表格并非轻视罕见的死亡原因。我们把它们列举出来,是为了帮助读者认真思考不同国家涉死亡率之间的差异。The rate of gun violence in the ed States is not the highest in the world. In parts of Central America, Africa and the Middle East, the gun death rates are even higher — close to those from heart attacks and lung cancer in the ed States. In neighboring Mexico, where a drug war rages, 122 people per million die in a gun homicide, a rate slightly higher than Americans’ death rate from pancreatic cancer. But the countries with those levels of gun violence are not like the ed States in many other ways, including G.D.P., life expectancy and education. Among developed democracies, the ed States is an outlier.美国的暴力发生率并不是全世界最高的。在中美洲、非洲和中东的部分地区,涉死亡率还要更高一些——接近美国的心脏病和肺癌死亡率。在毒品战争肆虐的邻国墨西哥,每100万人里有122人死于涉杀人案——略高于美国的胰腺癌死亡率。但暴力问题极为严重的这些国家,在GDP、人均寿命、教育等其他方面与美国大相径庭。在发达民主国家中,美国是一个异类。 /201606/449671

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