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2017年12月16日 07:26:09

呼市京美整形美容医院割双眼皮怎么样Rising protectionist sentiment in the West and a dramatic decline in global trade since 2011 have led many to speculate that Asia’s era of export-led growth will end soon. This speculation is overdone. While the slowdown in trade does demand responses, Asia is well positioned to be a bulwark against protectionism. In fact, it can lead global trade in the years to come.西方的保护主义情绪不断上升,加上011年以来全球贸易大幅下降,导致许多人猜测,亚洲出口导向型增长的时代将很快结束。这个猜测言过其实了。虽然贸易放缓需要作出回应,但亚洲处于有利地位,能够成为抵制保护主义的堡垒。事实上,亚洲可以在未来多年引领全球贸易。But, getting the responses right will require a clear understanding of the causes. Policy makers need to ask first what explains the export slowdown, and what this means for Asian economies. The story starts with the great recession in 2008, which left advanced countries stuck in low growth, low demand environments that have weighed heavily on Asia’s export-dominated economies.但是,做出正确回应将需要清楚地了解贸易放缓的原因。政策制定者需要首先问一下,什么因素解释了出口增长放缓,以及这对亚洲经济体意味着什么?事情始于2008年的大衰退,那场衰退导致发达国家陷入低增长、低需求的环境,严重拖累了亚洲的出口主导型经济体。In recent years, the problems of developed world economies have become entangled with China’s structural transformation, which has meant slower growth for Asia’s largest economy. Two trends accompanying China’s structural transformation have implications for Asian trade. One is its shift away from an export and investment-driven growth model toward domestic consumption and services. The other is China’s moving up the global value chain as wages rise.近年来,发达经济体的问题又与中国的结构转型结合在一起,后者已导致亚洲最大经济体增长放缓。伴随中国结构转型的两个趋势对亚洲贸易产生影响。一是中国增长模式从出口和投资驱动转向国内消费和务驱动。另一个是随着工资的上涨,中国正向全球价值链(GVC)的高端攀升。These trends have reduced demand for imports from the rest of Asia. Fueled by expanding middle class consumers, China continues to import consumables from across Asia. But, imports of capital goods and raw materials have declined. Accordingly, the annual average growth of China’s total imports from developing Asia fell from 18.2 per cent in 2001-2010 to 4.7 per cent in 2011-2015.这些趋势减少了中国对亚洲其他国家的进口需求。在日益扩大的中产阶层消费者的推动下,中国继续从亚洲各经济体进口消费品。但是,资本货物和原材料的进口减少了。相应地,中国从亚洲发展中国家的总进口的年均增长率由2001010年的18.2%,降到了2011015年的4.7%。They have also reduced trade in parts and components, which contain higher value addition than simply assembling products. The ratio of China’s intermediate goods imports to manufactured exports fell from 63 per cent to about 38 per cent between 2000 and 2015.这些趋势还减少了零部件的贸易,零部件相比简单装配产品具有更高的附加值。从2000015年,中国中间产品进口与制成品出口之比3%降至8%。The good news is that these factors are either temporary, such as weak import demand from advanced markets, or can be overcome through smart policymaking that takes advantage of the region’s strengths.好消息是,这些因素要么是暂时的——比如说发达市场的进口需求疲软——要么是可以通过发挥地区优势的明智政策来克的。Here are three ways Asia can take the lead in global trade.亚洲可以通过三条途径引领全球贸易。First, China’s economic rebalancing and moving up global value chains (GVCs) is opening up new trading opportunities for China itself. China’s production data confirm that the country is following the model of higher value added and building innovation capability seen first in Japan and subsequently in South Korea.首先,中国的经济再平衡和在全球价值链中向高端攀升,为中国本身开启了新的贸易机会。中国的生产数据实,该国正在追随首先在日本、后来在韩国见到的那种提高附加值和打造创新能力的模式。This implies the development of more technologically sophisticated regional value chains and related services in East Asia that can propel a new phase of regional and global trade growth. The sp of robotics, advances in miniaturisation, developments in internet connectivity, process-centered research and development, and various organisational innovations are increasingly likely to feature in GVCs in this new phase of trade growth.这暗示着,在东亚发展技术含量更高的区域价值链及相关务,可以推动区域乃至全球贸易进入一个新的增长阶段。在这个新的贸易增长阶段,机器人的普及、微型化的进展、互联网连接的发展、以流程为中心的研发以及各种组织创新,越来越有可能在全球价值链上发挥重要作用。Second, many developing economies are well positioned to benefit from China’s rebalancing. Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) face the prospect of replacing China in labor-intensive segments of GVCs, from clothing to consumer electronics. These Asian economies are increasingly open to export-oriented foreign direct investment and offer relatively low wages with reasonably good labor productivity.其次,许多发展中经济体处于受益于中国再平衡的有利地位。从装到消费电子产品,孟加拉国、印度、越南以及东ASEAN)其他成员国面临着在全球价值链的劳动密集型环节取代中国的前景。这些亚洲经济体对出口导向的外商直接投资(FDI)越来越开放,并提供相对低廉的工资和相当高的劳动生产率。Third, trade in services offers a new opportunity for many middle income countries in the region. Services constitute the largest sector in most economies in developing Asia, but they are rarely traded because of trade restrictions, skills gaps, and problems with internet connectivity.第三,务贸易为亚洲许多中等收入国家提供了新机遇。务业是亚洲多数发展中经济体内最大的行业,但由于贸易限制、技能差距和互联网连接问题,目前务贸易额很低。Digital trade, professional and financial services, and GVC-related services are areas with potential for trade growth. Both China and India are likely to further expand their roles as exporters and importers of services. Asean and South Asian economies have opportunities to further develop tourism, including from markets in other regional economies, and other commercial services exports.数字化贸易、专业及金融务以及全球价值链相关务是具有贸易增长潜力的领域。中国和印度都有可能进一步扩大它们作为务出口国和进口国的角色。东盟和南亚经济体有机会进一步发展旅游业——包括针对其他区域经济体的市场——和其他商务务的出口。To capitalise on these opportunities, it is important that Asian countries continue to implement structural reform to upgrade skills, enhance finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in seaports and other trade-related and digital infrastructure and reduce behind-the-border barriers such as cumbersome local government regulations and labor laws.为了利用这些机会,重要的是亚洲国家要继续实施结构改革以升级技能,为中小企业拓宽融资渠道,投资海港和其他与贸易有关的、数字化的基础设施,并减少境内障碍,比如繁琐的地方政府法规和劳动法律。Policy makers should resist protectionist pressures. Instead, they should liberalize goods and services trade by reducing import tariffs where possible and instituting better surveillance of non-tariff measures. The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which 19 economies in developing Asia have ratified to date, promises to reduce the region’s trade costs.政策制定者应该抵制保护主义压力。相反,他们应该通过尽可能降低进口关税并加强监督非关税措施,实现商品和务贸易的自由化。世界贸易组WTO)的《贸易便利化协定Trade Facilitation Agreement)——迄今已9个亚洲发展中经济体批准了该协定——有望降低亚洲的贸易成本。Large trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can help generate market access for services and sp good regulatory practices.Asia has benefited greatly from trade in recent years. It should continue to implement the kinds of policies that will make it the leader in global trade.《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)等大型贸易协定,可以帮助达成务的市场准入和推广优良的监管做法。近年亚洲从贸易受益匪浅。亚洲应继续实施各项明智政策,使其成为全球贸易的引领者。Mr. Wignaraja is an adviser in ADB’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. Mr. Zhuang is ADB’s Deputy Chief Economist.加内维格纳拉杰是亚开ADB)经济研究与地区合作部顾问,庄巨忠是亚开行副首席经济学家 /201701/488896内蒙古呼和浩特市去除黄褐斑多少钱呼和浩特市第一医院激光脱毛多少钱

呼和浩特新城区冰点脱毛多少钱乌兰察布市妇幼保健人民中医院激光脱毛多少钱回民区做处女膜修复多少钱The emergence of Martin Schulz as the centre-left Social Democratscandidate for chancellor has fundamentally altered the dynamics of German politics. It is also changing the debate in Germany on inequality and the future of Europe in ways that will have a significant impact across the continent.马丁?舒尔Martin Schulz)成为中左翼社民党(SPD)的总理候选人,从根本上改变了德国政治局势。它还改变了德国国内围绕不平等和欧洲未来展开的辩论,将对整个欧洲大陆产生重大影响。Germany is regarded as an economic success story. Unemployment is at its lowest level since reunification in 1990; the trade surplus has reached a record high. And the government has just registered a fiscal surplus of Euro24bn, or 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product.德国被视为经济成功的典范。失业率处于1990年两德统一以来的最低水平;贸易顺差达到创纪录新高。德国政府刚刚录40亿欧元的财政盈余,相当于国内生产总GDP).8%。Yet, for all the good economic news, polls show that 70 per cent of Germans believe that inequality is excessive.然而,尽管有这些经济上的好消息,但民调显示0%的德国人认为不平等程度过于严重。Data show that Germany is a highly polarised society, with the bottom 40 per cent of households having the same or a lower real income as 25 years ago.数据显示,德国是一个高度极化的社会,处于底端的40%的家庭的实际收入徘徊于、甚至低5年前的水平。Although full-time, permanent employment has increased, so has the number of precarious, part-time jobs. The number of working poor those in work but earning less than 60 per cent of the median income has doubled from 4.8 per cent in 2005 to 9.6 per cent today.尽管永久性的全职就业人数增加,但不稳定兼职工作人数也出现了增长。穷忙族(working poor)——那些虽然有工作,但收入不到中位数收0%的人——的比例005年的4.8%增长一倍,.6%。In short, Germany has a two-speed economy with a widening gap between successful export and tradeable sectors on the one hand, and services and nontradeable sectors on the other. Levels of social mobility and equality of opportunity are also poor.简言之,德国拥有双速经济,一方是蓬勃发展的出口和可贸易部门,另一方是务业和不可贸易部门,两者间的差距越来越大。社会流动性水平和机会平等程度同样很糟糕。It not surprising, therefore, that a lively debate has begun on the effects of the “Agenda 2010reforms deregulating the labour market and reforming social security, which were introduced in 2003 by the SPD government of Gerhard Schr?der. Ironically, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats praise Agenda 2010 as a success, while elements in the SPD criticise it.因此,并不令人意外的是,人们围绕010议程Agenda 2010)改革的效果展开了激烈辩论——这些改革是2003年由格哈施罗Gerhard Schr?der)领导的社民党政府推行的,旨在解除对劳动力市场的监管并改革社保制度。具有讽刺意味的是,德国总理安格默克Angela Merkel)所在的基民CDU)认为010议程”取得了成功,而社民党的某些人批评它。Last week, Mr Schulz promised to lengthen the duration of unemployment benefits and to reduce the number of precarious job arrangements if he is elected.上周,舒尔茨承诺,如果他当选总理的话,将延长失业救济金发放期,并减少不稳定的就业安排。However, this debate on the merits of Agenda 2010 ignores the distinctive challenges that Germany faces. The country needs significant investment in a more inclusive education system and a revamp of family-friendly policies designed to create opportunities for women and other groups. It also needs to deregulate the services sectors to foster investment, productivity and incomes, as well as strengthening collective bargaining agreements.然而,围绕010议程”利弊的这场辩论忽视了德国面临的独特挑战。德国需要大举投资于更具包容性的教育体系,并且改善有利于家庭的政策,为女性和其他群体创造机会。它还需要解除对务业的监管,以促进投资、生产率和收入,以及加强集体谈判协议。Meanwhile, the CDU has begun to attack Mr Schulz for his positions on the EU and the eurozone, particularly his advocacy of “eurobondsas a way of relieving the debt crisis in the single currency area.与此同时,基民盟已开始攻击舒尔茨关于欧盟和欧元区的立场,尤其是他呼吁推出“欧元区债券”来缓解欧元区的债务危机。A debate in Germany on the future of Europe and the country’s role in it is certainly overdue. Europe was a non-issue in the 2013 federal elections for the mainstream parties, largely because the CDU and SPD feared that discussing it would play into the hands of the rightwing, Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party.当然,德国早就应该围绕欧洲的未来以及本国在其中的角色展开辩论。在2013年的联邦议院选举中,欧洲对主流政党根本不是一个议题,这在很大程度上是因为基民盟和社民党担心,讨论欧洲问题将会让右翼政党——对欧洲持怀疑态度的德国新选择Alternative for Germany)有机可乘。There are risks for the rest of Europe, too. While Germany has traditionally been strongly pro-European, in recent years many in the governing parties have criticised the policies pursued by other EU member states and the European institutions, including the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.欧洲其他国家也存在风险。尽管德国传统上坚决持欧洲,但在最近几年,执政联盟政党中的许多人批评了欧盟其他成员国以及欧洲机构推行的政策,包括欧洲央ECB)的货币政策。The return of Mr Schulz to domestic German politics has certainly shaken things up. The central question now is whether pro-European voices in both major parties will prevail in the debate he has opened up.舒尔茨回归国内政坛(之前他是欧洲议会议长——译者注)肯定起到了撼动作用。现在的核心问题是,两大主流政党的亲欧派是否会在他开启的辩论中占上风。The answer hinges on several factors, including the outcome of the French elections, the Brexit negotiations and whether the threats made by US President Donald Trump will push Germany to align more closely with its European neighbours.取决于多个因素,包括法国选举结果、英国退欧谈判以及美国总统唐纳特朗Donald Trump)带来的威胁会不会推动德国与邻国更加团结。The writer is president of DIW Berlin, a think-tank本文作者是智库柏林德国经济研究所(DIW Berlin)的所长来 /201703/496351和林格尔县妇幼保健人民中医院整形美容科

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