南平检查怀孕需要多少钱好网

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 南平检查怀孕需要多少钱康时讯
Business商业报道German companies德国公司An unhappy business不幸的商业The new governments reforms worry German bosses新政府改革使德国企业的老板们担心不已FOR German businesses, the elections were bad enough.对于德国的商业来说,这次的选举真的糟糕透了。In September voters denied the business-friendly, small-government Free Democrats the 5% of the vote required to stay both in parliament and in the centre-right coalition government.九月份投票者拒绝了对商业友好、小政府型的需要5%投票继续在过会和右翼联盟中待下去的自由民主党员们。The election result has led to a grand coalition between Angela Merkels Christian Democratic Union, its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, and the leftish Social Democrats.这个选举结果引发了默克尔的基督民主联盟及它的巴伐利亚党,基督社会联盟和左倾的社会民主党的大联盟。Though the SPD finished well behind the CDU-CSU, their coalition agreement, signed at the end of November, looks to many like a wishlist for the left.尽管跟社会民主党的联合结束远远在CDU-CSU后面,他们的联合协议,11月末尾签字,看上去更像一个左派的愿望单。Business and financial leaders are barely bothering to conceal their disappointment at a new national minimum wage, increased pension payments, lower retirement ages for some workers and new pension entitlements for some stay-at-home mothers.商业和金融领导者们几乎不费劲去隐藏他们对新的全国最低工资、增加了的退休金、对某些工人更低的退休年龄和对一些在家母亲生活津贴权益的失望之情。The head of the Federation of German Industry, Ulrich Grillo, called it a wasted chance that would submit the German economy to new stress tests.德国工业联合会首领,Ulrich Grillo,称之为可能会导致德国经济面临一个新的严峻考验的机会浪费。The Cologne Institute for Economic Research has compared the agreement to a cheque without the funds to cover it.科隆经济研究所将这个协议比作为一个没有资金担保的票。Company bosses are more circumspect than leaders of industry bodies about criticising Mrs Merkel publicly. But they too are wary.公司老板们比工业团体领导人们在公开批评默克尔女士上更加的谨慎。但是他们太小心翼翼了。One German chief executive complains that the chancellor ignored structural reform when she had a business-friendly partner in the Free Democrats, and frets that she can hardly be expected to find new courage with the SPD.一个德国首席执行官抱怨道当她在自由民主党人中有一个对商业友好的伙伴,总理可能会忽略结构性改革,并且他担心道可能很难期待她在SPD的伴随下找到新的勇气。A lobbyist for another big company says that with the Free Democrats you didnt need an interpreter to explain industrys concerns to the government, but now he fears he will.另一家大公司的一个游说者说道有德国自由民主党人的话你不需要一个翻译者去解释政府的工业关注点,但是现在他担心他需要了。He grumbles that Mrs Merkel understands the importance of a free economy but does not actually understand what it means.他抱怨道默克尔女士明白一个自由经济的重要性但是她可能并未真正懂它的含义。He even praises Gerhard Schr?der, Mrs Merkels predecessor and a Social Democrat.他甚至赞赏格哈德施罗德,默克尔女士的前任和一个社会民主党人。Mr Schrder would listen, ask questions, and then say I can do this; I cant do that.施罗德会听、问问题然后接着说我可以做这个;我不能做那个。Mrs Merkel does listen carefully—but then keeps her own counsel.默克尔女士确实听得很认真——但是接着保持她自己的想法。The CDU-CSU has kept one promise: the coalition treaty pledges not to raise taxes, which the parties of the left all favour.CDU-CSU联盟保一个承诺:联盟条约保税收不增加,这也是左派全都持的。Growth-friendly spending, such as on infrastructure and research, will increase.对增长有利的政府花销,如基础设施建设和研究,会增长。But Deutsche Bank estimates that social spending will rise by three times as much.但是荷兰估计社会花费会增长三倍之多。Businesses are far less happy about changes that will affect the labour market.商业会更不乐于见到会影响劳动力市场的变化。Germanys best-performing, export-oriented companies will be little affected by the minimum wage, as they employ few low-skilled workers.德国业绩做的最好的,出口导向的公司几乎不会被最低工资影响,由于他们雇佣很少的技术不高的工人。But the ability to employ workers on short-term contracts will be curtailed.但是他们用短期合同雇佣工人的能力被剥夺了。Some firms have been criticised for abusing such methods as a way of keeping workers from benefits that full-time employees would receive.一些公司曾经批评滥用这些方法作为一种剥夺工人们享有全职雇员能够享受到利益的方式。But now a tool that has made the labour market more flexible, and helped to bring unemployment down, will be made harder to use.但是现在一个工具,可以使劳动力市场更加的灵活并且帮助降低失业率,会更难使用。Energy policy is a particularly sore point.能源政策更是一个痛处。Germanys renewable-energy law has boosted green sources through guaranteed high prices for renewable power, preferred access for renewables to the grid and easier financing, from a tax on electricity bills.德国的可再生能源法通过保可再生能源的高价、对可再生能源管道网络更优先的许可和更容易的来自电力税的融资来促进绿色来源。German industrial electricity prices are among the highest in Europe.德国工业用电价格属于欧洲最高行列。Power-hungry industries get partial relief from the tax that finances renewable subsidies; but they complain nonetheless, of a lack of long-term clarity in energy policy.能源密集型工业通过提供可再生能源补贴税减轻部分负担;虽然如此但是他们仍然抱怨能源政策缺乏长期确定性。Firms are voting with their euros.公司们用他们的欧元投票。The value of fixed capital in energy-intensive industries has declined over the past decade.在能源密集产业的固定资本价值在过去十年下降了。As companies kit is wearing out, they are simply not replacing it, or investing abroad.由于公司的设备磨损了,他们仅仅是不更换它,或者投资国外。The coalition treaty speaks of an energy policy triangle of sustainability, supply security and affordability, but fills in little detail about how the government can achieve all three competing goals.这个联盟条约提起一个集持续性、安全保和可付的能源政策三角,但是没有透露任何关于政府如何实现所有三个具有竞争力目标的细节。The government has set a deadline of April 2014 to publish a fundamental reform of the renewable-energy law, which it hopes to pass by summer.政府设定了2014年4月一个最后期限去公布可再生能源法基础性改革,Udo Niehage, the head of government relations at Siemens, a big engineering firm, is not panicking yet.大型工程公司西门子政府关系部门领导Udo Niehage一点都不惊慌失措。He is certain that the coalition understands the worries of German businesses, and praises Ms Merkels toughness and cleverness.他很肯定联盟很明白德国商业的担忧,并且赞赏默克尔的坚韧和聪明。She is certainly good at wrong-footing political opponents, and so it is possible that the coalition deal is an unreliable guide to what the new government will actually do.她肯定很擅长使政治对手手忙脚乱,所以可能联盟处理方式是一个对新政府实际上会做什么不可靠的指引。But the lack of certainty about future plans is the loudest complaint about the chancellor coming from businesses.但是未来计划缺乏确定性是来自商业关于总理最大的抱怨。Trusting in her cleverness is not enough.相信她的聪明是不够的。 /201312/270912

Does Facebook Lead To Loneliness?脸谱会导致孤独吗?Dear:A Moment of Science,亲爱的《科学一刻》栏目组:Im not a big Facebook user, but I have friends who are.我不是脸谱的忠实用户,但是我的一些朋友是。And Ive noticed that some of them are constantly updating their status.而我注意到,一些人总是很频繁在脸谱上更新个人状态,Where some people might post a message once a day, others seem to be posting something every few minutes.一些人一天会发布一条消息,另外一些人看上去没几分钟就会发布一次消息,Can science help explain this phenomenon?科学能对这种现象给予解释么?Interesting question.这是很有趣的问题,Of course, there are many reasons why people join and post stuff on Facebook.尽管每个人注册脸谱并发布信息的原因不尽相同,But researchers have begun to study the phenomenon you describe.但是科学家已经对你所提到的现象进行研究,And they found that copious posting on Facebook may have something to do with loneliness.而他们发现频繁的在脸谱上发布消息可能与孤独有关。Specifically, the researchers found that people who update their status more often report feeling less lonely than people who post less often.特别要一提的是,科学家发现经常更新状态的人比不经常更新状态的人要感觉更不孤独。Now, granted, the study looked at only 100 undergraduate students, around half of whom were instructed to update their status more frequently than they normally would.当然,这项研究只对100名大学生进行研究,其中半数被研究者受到研究的指导性影响而比平时更频繁地更新状态。And then they self reported on their levels of loneliness, happiness, depression, and so on.然后让这些同学自己报告各自的幸福感、孤独感、失落感等等。So this question requires more in depth research.因此这个问题需要更深入的研究。Still, its a noteworthy finding.但这仍是一个值得关注的发现。Interestingly, the students who posted more did not report feeling happier, or less or more depressed.有趣的是,经常发布消息的学生并没有感到更幸福或者或多或少的失落,So status updates seem to have something to do specifically with feeling less lonely and more socially connected.看上去,更新状态会减少个人的孤独感以及增强社会归属感。What I find even more interesting is that it did not seem to matter whether the students got any Likes or responses to their posts. Just the act of updating their status was enough to make them feel less lonely.我注意到另外一个有趣的地方是,学生发布的信息是否得到别人的赞或者回应都无所谓,更新自己状态这件事本身就可以让他们感到不那么孤独。 /201309/257670British politics英国政治She came, she saw, she conquered她来过,领略过,征过A great biography of an extraordinary life一本记录撒切尔夫人传奇人生的传记Margaret Thatcher—The Authorised Biography, Volume I: From Grantham to the Falklands. By Charles Moore.《玛格丽特撒切尔授权传记,卷一:从格兰瑟姆市到福克兰群岛》作者:查尔斯尔IT HELPS to be lucky if you are a politician and Margaret Thatcher was luckier than most: lucky that she came to power when the old order was crumbling and lucky that her opponents were so feeble. Now she is proving to be lucky in death. First came a semi-state funeral that had the British establishment on bended knee and the British public out on the streets; now comes the first volume of an authorised biography that may well turn out to be one of the great lives of modern times.政客运气总是比常人要好。玛格丽特撒切尔比大多数的政客运气都还要好:在她上台之际,旧秩序正值崩溃,而她的对手也不堪一击。现在,她连死亡都是幸运的。首先是一个准国葬,葬礼上英国政要皆屈膝以示敬意,而英国民众纷纷在沿街表达他们的悼念之情。现在则是她授权的传记第一卷的出版发行,这部传记很有可能成为现代最伟大的著作之一。This first volume takes the story from Mrs Thatchers childhood above a grocers shop in Grantham to victory in the Falklands war in 1982. A second volume, “Herself Alone”, will tell the rest of the story. Charles Moore, a veteran journalist and former editor of the weekly Spectator magazine and the Daily Telegraph, is proving the ideal biographer. He has spent 16 years ing Mrs Thatchers private papers, to which he had unique access, and interviewing everyone who mattered. But he also possesses the literary panache to bring the dullest sources to life. He is close to his subject both ideologically and personally. But he also acknowledges that she could be impossible, and often was: hectoring, bullying and interfering.在传记中,第一卷讲述了撒切尔夫人从格兰瑟姆市一个零售商女儿成长为赢得1982年马岛战争的铁娘子的故事。第二卷《她自己》将讲述之后的故事。作为周刊《旁观者》和《每日电讯报》的资深记者兼前任编辑,查尔斯尔就是一个完美的传记作者。充分利用自己查阅撒切尔夫人私人文件的特权,尔花费了16年的时间来研究这些文件,并采访每一个相关人员。但(所幸)他也拥有卓越的文学才华,能够将最枯燥的材料写得栩栩如生。无论在思想上,还是私人交情上,尔都与撒切尔夫人十分亲近。但他也承认,她有时候的确很难应付,并且她通常喜欢颐指气使、恃强凌弱、事事干涉。The first 200-odd pages are hard-going. As a person rather than a politician she is of limited interest. She had no intellectual hinterland and was quite content to repeat the clichés of the stockbroker belt. If she had a sense of humour, nobody has ever found it. Mrs Thatchers early career—from the scholarship to Oxford, an early love affair, a job as an industrial chemist and her first forays into Conservative politics—is hardly the stuff of high drama. Mr Moore does a good job of evoking the atmosphere of post-war Britain. He reveals that Denis Thatcher, whom she married in 1951, once repaired to South Africa for two months and contemplated divorcing her. Still, few ers will wish this section were longer.最开始200多页的内容读起来索然无味。褪去政治家身份的撒切尔,与常人并无异处。她没有任何科研成果,并且满足于重复富人区的陈词滥调。她没有幽默感。她的早年生涯—拿到牛津大学奖学金,年轻时的爱恋,工业化学家的工作,第一次闯进了保守党阵营——都不是多少精的故事。在讲述这段时间内的事情过程中,尔很好地营造了一种二战后英国的氛围。他大爆料, 1951年娶了她的丹尼斯撒切尔,曾经在南非呆过两个月,考虑着是否要与她离婚。尽管如此,很少有读者想继续探究下去。Things really take off with Mrs Thatchers election as Conservative Party leader in 1975. Mr Moore brilliantly reconstructs the drama of those years. He reminds the er of how big the stakes were in everything from industrial relations to the Falklands war. Mrs Thatcher was in an extraordinary position: “the oldest, grandest, in many peoples eyes the stuffiest political party in the world had chosen a leader whose combination of class, inexperience and sex would previously have ruled her out.” But Mr Moore avoids the luxury of hindsight. Political events tumble over each other. Politicians grope about in the dark. Patterns emerge slowly.1975年,撒切尔夫人被选为保守党领袖,从这开始故事才变得有意思起来。尔十分精地重现了这段流光岁月。他向读者展示了,从工业革命到马岛战争,所有事情都充满着巨大风险。与其他首相相比,撒切尔夫人的处境不同寻常:“世界上历史最悠久的、规模最庞大的、在许多人眼里最死板僵化的政党,选择了一位这样的领导人:在此之前她会因为来自底层阶级、缺乏经验、身为女性,而被直接排除在外。”不过尔避免了大篇幅的“后知后觉”。毕竟,政治问题之间总会有冲突,政客们也是摸着石头过河,政治模式的出现总需要时间。Margaret Thatcher grows with the turning of the pages. She summons up extraordinary personal resources not just to break with the old order but to put a new one in its place. None of this was easy. The entire Thatcherite project was frequently in danger of faltering, as unemployment soared, cities burned and the ditherers conspired. The situation became so dire in 1981 that Mrs Thatchers advisers sent her a memo castigating her management style and warning that she would soon be joining Edward Heath on the backbenches.随着时间的推移,玛格丽特撒切尔也在变得更加老练成熟。她以常人少有的勇气与旧秩序决裂,同时打造新秩序。这两件事都不容易。所有这些撒切尔主义项目经常面临各种垮台的危险,因为失业率急速增长,各大城市情况堪忧,反对者纷纷密谋反叛。情况发展到1981年已经十分危急,连撒切尔夫人的顾问也都向她寄去一份简报,激烈指责她的管理方式,并警告说她可能很快就加入爱德华希思成为后座议员了。How did she manage all this Mr Moore shows that it took more than ideological certainty and personal stubbornness. Mrs Thatcher had a gift for seeing when the time was ripe and when it was not. She had a natural bond with what Richard Nixon called the silent majority. She had an actors gift for putting on a good show. Mrs Thatchers opponents repeatedly played into her hands: Heath, the titular leader of the Tory ditherers, known as the “wets”, was a repulsive figure who grew more repulsive with age and Michael Foot, the Labour leader, had an unfortunate habit of dressing like a scarecrow.然而她是怎样应对这些的呢?尔将其描述为远非坚定的意志和倔强的个性就足够。撒切尔夫人有着判断时机的良好禀赋。她与理查德尼克松所说的“沉默的大多数”之间有着天然纽带。她就像是一个天生的演员,与生俱来就擅长上演一出精的戏。撒切尔夫人的对手总会正中她的下怀:名义上保守党反对派的领袖希思,是著名的“温和派”,他的为人令人厌恶,而且越老越惹人烦,还有工党领袖迈克尔福特,他喜欢把自己打扮得像个稻草人一样,有这个习惯实在是不幸啊。The book ends on a high note. Britains victory in the Falklands war consolidated Mrs Thatchers hold over the Tory Party. The economy began to recover. And the Labour Party rendered itself unelectable. At the same time the seeds of her self- destruction were aly apparent. It is not often that you can say of a 900-page book that it leaves you wanting to more. But in this case it is true.该书在高潮部分收了尾。英国在马岛战争中的胜利有效地巩固了撒切尔夫人对保守党的控制。经济也开始复苏。工党的糟糕表现也致使它们自身无法赢得选举胜利。不过,与此同时,撒切尔夫人也开始走下坡路了。人们很少会说,读完一本900页的书还觉得意犹未尽,但是这本传记就做到了。 /201405/294727

When they hear the name Ben Franklin, many folks think of the Declaration of Independence, the Continental Congress and things like that. Not as many people remember that Franklin was an inventor . . . and a good one, too! He also did some pioneering work in physics.当人们听到本杰明-富兰克林这个名字时,独立宣言,大陆会议等事件立即浮现在眼前。而作为发明家的富兰克林却不大为人所知。其实他是一名优秀的发明家,并曾在物理学方面做过一些开创性的工作。Sure, sure, you say. You think I’m about to tell that old story about flying a kite in a thunderstorm. I can see you reaching for the knob on your radio. But wait!你连忙说“是是是”,你认为我还是要给你讲老掉牙的电闪雷鸣放风筝的故事。我可以看到你的手伸向电台准备换频道。请等等!Forget about the kite and think fur instead. Franklin took some fur and rubbed it across a rubber rod. He had suspended the rod by a thin string. Then he tried it with a glass rod. Then he used silk instead of fur. What was he up to?忘掉风筝的事情吧,思考一下皮毛。富兰克林拿一些皮毛与一根橡胶棒进行擦。他用一根细绳将橡胶棒悬空挂起。然后他用一根玻璃棒又试了一下。然后他用丝巾代替了皮毛。他到底想干什么呢?He was experimenting with electric charge. The glass rod rubbed with silk repelled another glass rod rubbed with silk. The rubber rod rubbed with fur attracted the glass rod. That’s why he was hanging them by strings; when they are free to move, you can easily see the attraction and repulsion at work.他在做电荷实验。用丝巾擦过的玻璃棒相互排斥,但是皮毛擦过的橡胶棒却与玻璃棒相互吸引。这是他将棒子用细绳悬空而挂的原因。当它们可以自由运动时,你很容易就可以看到它们相吸和相斥的场景。Nowadays we know that what Franklin was doing was finding different ways to change the net electrical charge on various substances by knocking around electrons. Electrons are tiny, negatively charged particles. Since objects start out with equal amounts positive and negative charge, rubbing electrons off a glass rod with silk will give the glass net positive charge.如今我们懂得富兰克林实验的目的是通过擦电子,通过各种不同的途径在不同的物质上转移电子以改变净电荷。电子是微小的带负电荷的粒子。由于媒介起初带有相等数量的正负电子,玻璃棒与丝巾的擦会使得玻璃棒只带有净正电子。Franklin didn’t know about electrons, but using only very simple materials, he had shown that opposite charges attract and like charges repel! He even coined the terms “positive” and “negative.”富兰克林并不知道电子,但是仅仅使用非常简单的材料,他明了异性电荷相互吸引,同性电荷相互排斥!他甚至创造了专有名词“正”和“负”。Not bad for someone who was helping found new countries in his spare time.在建立新国家的同时,业余时间做点新鲜事也是个不错的选择。 /201306/242629Some of the best moments in World War II movies occur when, during a battle at sea, a periscope pokes up from the water, surveying the ocean terrain. 二战题材的电影中一些可赞的片段是,海上作战的时候,一个潜望镜从水中穿出,用以测量海洋地形。Cut to a submarine gliding through the depths. Torpedoes away, and the enemy battleship is doomed. How do these amazing vessels rise and sink so quickly to specific depths? 镜头切换到潜水艇潜到水下。然后发射鱼雷,敌军战队注定会失败。这些神奇的军舰是如何实现快速上升下沉到特定的深度?Although submarines are sophisticated machines, their ability to rise and sink is based on the elementary principle of buoyant force. 尽管潜艇是很复杂的机器,但它们上升下沉所依据的却是浮力的基本原理。Say you fill your bathtub with water and put a rubber gym ball on the surface of the water. 将浴缸填满水然后在水面上放一个橡胶健身球。It floats because the air-filled ball is less dense than the surrounding water. 它会在水面上漂着因为充气球的密度小于水的密度。But poke a hole in the ball and as water displaces the air, the overall density increases until the ball is heavy enough to sink to the bottom. 但在球上戳一个洞,用水代替健身球中的空气,其整体密度会变大,一直到该球重的足以落到水的底部。A submarine works in much the same way, with one major exception: a sub can alter its buoyancy by manipulating overall density. 海底工作大致是相同的,但有一点例外:通过操控整体密度,潜水艇能够改变其浮力。Submarines come equipped with tanks that can be filled with various levels of water and air. 潜艇都配备蓄水池,贮备着不同的水量和空气。When a sub floats on the surface, its tanks are filled mostly with air, which makes the sub less dense than the surrounding water. 但潜水艇浮在水面的时候,它的蓄水池里大部分都是空气,这样可以使得潜水艇的密度小于水的密度。When the crew wants to make the sub sink they open valves to allow just enough water to flood the tanks and make the sub sink to a specific depth. 若工作人员想要使潜艇下沉,他们可以打开阀门,让足够多的水流入蓄水池,然后使其下沉到一个特定的深度。Of course the sub must be able to rise again after filling its tanks with air. 当然将蓄水池充入空气,潜艇会再次上升。To that end submarines carry tanks of compressed air that can be used to displace water from the tanks and increase buoyancy.最后潜艇会携带带有压缩空气的蓄水池,用来替换蓄水池中的水,增加浮力。201308/251983

Some of this ice age dung was found beneath the skull in the Aucilla. The dung contained plant remains that tell us what the mastodon was browsing on 13,000 years ago or more—a mixture of trees and grasses.在奥西拉市发现的头骨下面发现了一些从冰河时代遗留下来的粪便。粪便中包含着植物化石,这告诉我们,在13000多年前,乳齿象的食物便是树木和草的混合物。This suggests that ice age Florida was drier than it is today—a mix of woodlands and savanna rather than swamps. And mastodon teeth found in the Aucilla held a more important revelation. The enamel contains chemical signatures of a local soil, passed by the plants the mastodons ate. But some of the chemicals found in the Aucilla teeth could only have come from soil hundreds of miles further north. The inescapable conclusion is that these mastodons migrated, making a round trip of more than 400 miles every year. And since their dung also contains remains of summer fruits from the Aucilla region, they must have travelled north for the winter. 这能够告诉我们,冰河时代的佛罗里达比现在更加干燥,到处都是树林和草原而不是沼泽。在奥西拉发现的乳齿象的牙齿透漏出了更多的重要信息。通过他们所吃的食物,牙齿上的釉质带有一些当地土壤的化学成分。但是,一些牙齿上的化学成分都来于北方几百英里外的土壤。我们很轻易地得出一个结论:这些乳齿象每年都进行400多英里的往返迁移。由于这些粪便中含有来自奥西拉地区的夏季水果化石,因此他们一定是在冬天向北方迁徙。The question is, why? Why leave a place which as we have seen was abundant with food and a refuge from the cold? And why go north for the winter when most migrants move south? Perhaps the present climate can provide a clue. 问题是,这是为什么呢?为什么离开一个在我们看来食物充足并能抵御严寒的地方?为什么当大部分的动物向南部迁徙过冬时他们却向北部迁徙?也许现在的气候可以为我们提供一些线索。Florida has a peculiar seasonal quirk. Although the winter months are cooler, they are also drier, much drier. Between October and February, theres almost no rainfall at all.佛罗里达的气候十分特殊。尽管冬季的月份更加寒冷,但是同样也更加干燥,尤为干燥。在十月和二月之间,佛罗里达基本上没有降雨。英文文本来自普特英语,译文属未经许可不得转载。201309/255223Finance and economics财经商业High-yield bonds高利债券An appetite for junk来点垃圾Companies have taken advantage of investorsgrowing willingness to buy speculative bonds公司很好的利用了投资者日益高涨的购买投机性债券的意愿WHEN cash deposits pay virtually zero, investors have an incentive to take risks in search of higher returns.当存款利率近乎于零,投资者便会冒险寻求更高收益。That has been good news for the high-yield, or junk, bond market, where companies with poor credit ratings turn for finance.而这对于高利债券、或垃圾债券市场来说,无疑是个好消息,那些信用评级差的公司通常通过这种方式融资。Many companies can now borrow at rates that governments would have been pleased to achieve two decades ago.现在,许多公司可以以各国政府二十年前喜闻乐见的利率获得投资。Indeed, so low have borrowing costs fallen that some wags have dubbed the market the asset class formerly known as high-yield.诚然,借贷成本降至如此之低,甚至有人将其戏称为前高利债券。Until the hiatus related to the budget crisis inAmerica, companies were rushing to take advantage of this financing opportunity.直到此次美债违约,各家公司纷纷借助这股东风融资。In the first nine months of the year global high-yield-bond issuance reached 378.2 billion, up by 27% on the same period in 2012, according to Dealogic, a financial-data firm. Sprint,据金融数据公司迪罗基称,今年前九个月发现的高利债券达到了3782亿美元,同比增长27%。an American telecoms company, raised 6.5 billion in two simultaneous bond issues, the largest-ever junk financing.美国电信公司Sprint通过同步发行债券筹集到了65亿美元,这也是迄今为止最大的垃圾融资。Low rates will not last forever, so companies are keen to take advantage of what might be an historic opportunity.低利率不会持续太久,公司自然不会错过这次千载难逢的机会。And investors have been happy to take the extra yields on offer, given the positive returns achieved since .鉴于年后获得正收益,投资者也乐意出资获取额外收益。In America, the modern high-yield-bond market dates back to the 1980s. Until then, high-yield bonds were usually fallen angels—companies which previously had an investment-grade credit rating but had seen their finances suffer.美国现代高利债券起源于上世纪八十年代。在那之前,高利率债券通常都是落难天使—此前已获得投资信用评级的公司都遭遇过财务危机。But Michael Milken and his team at Drexel Burnham Lambert, an investment bank, discovered there was a market for high-yield debt from new issuers, often in connection with companies making takeover bids.但是,德瑞债券的迈克尔米尔肯为高利债券发行者发现了新的市场,而这通常和公司收购行动密不可分。The market is now huge.现在,这一市场前景广阔,A study by Russell, a consultancy, estimated its total size at 1.7 trillion.咨询公司Russell预计其总需求为1.7万亿。Almost half of all the corporate bonds rated by Standard amp; Poors are classed as speculative, a polite term for junk.标普公司发布的信用评级中超过半数公司债券均为投机性债券—垃圾债券的委婉说法。Part of this is down to fashion; companies have been urged to return spare cash to shareholders and to make their balance-sheets more efficient by taking advantage of the tax deductibility of interest payments.其中,部分债券已经流于形式,股东撤回公司闲钱,如此便可利用付息债券避税,从而使得资产负债表更加均衡。Another big boost to the market has been the broadening of its base beyondAmerica.高利债券膨胀的另一大原因是除美国市场之外,世界其他地区需求增加。According to Fraser Lundie, a high-yield-bond manager at Hermes,America comprised 89% of the market in 1998; now it forms just 57%.Europehas gone from 3% of the market to 27%.爱马仕高利债券经理弗雷泽伦迪表示,1998年美国国内发行的高利债券占全世界的89%,现在降至57%,而欧洲则由当初的3%增至27%。The rise of high-yield bonds has been handy for European companies in the wake of the financial crisis, as many banks have been seeking to shrink their balance-sheets, and have been less willing to offer loans.随着金融危机的爆发,高利债券发行量的增长对欧洲公司来说也极为便利,因为都减少贷款,平衡资产负债表。Historically, European companies have been much more dependent on bank finance than their American counterparts.从历史观点上说,相对于美国公司,欧洲公司对的依赖更强。They also used to be warier of seeing their bonds classed as junk.过去,欧洲公司甚至害怕其债券被评为垃圾级。Low rates have been good for the market in another way.从另一个层面来说,低利率对市场有利。They have enabled companies to refinance their debt cheaply, and so pushed back the nettlesome day when their finances will be squeezed by higher borrowing costs.因为这样公司可以以低成本获得再融资,当初借贷成本高不说,还很难获得通过,简直苦不堪言。A few years ago there was a worry that a lot of debt would need to be refinanced in 2012 and 2013; now the refinancing hump will not come until 2017 and 2018.几年前,人们担心过多债务会导致2012年、2013年时需要再融资;现在,在2017年、2018年之前再融资峰值是不会出现的。A long period of cheap finance makes it less likely that issuers will be forced to default in the short term, and the reduced likelihood of default makes it more attractive for investors to hold bonds.长期的低成本融资让债券发行方短期内违约的可能性大大降低,违约可能性的降低又会吸引更多投资者持有债券。In the wake of Lehmans collapse, the sp on junk bonds rose so far that it implied default on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.随着雷曼兄弟的破产,垃圾债券的差额大幅增长,这也就导致了大萧条后前所危机的违约浪潮。But after a brief spike to 13.7% in , the default rate on global high-yield bonds dropped steadily and was just 2.8% in September, according to Moodys, another ratings agency.但是,据评级公司穆迪称,年13.7%的违约高峰很快便平息;今年九月,全球高利率债券违约率仅为2.8%。But not all is sunny in the high-yield world.但是,高利债券市场并非总是风平浪静。Although the market has doubled or tripled in size since 2008, liquidity has diminished.尽管自2008年后高利债券市场规模已经增至原来的两至三倍,债券的流动性却降低了。Regulatory restrictions mean that banks no longer hold as much inventory in the form of bonds; since 2002, there has been a decline of almost three-quarters.监管限制让无法继续像以前那样持有太多债券形式的存货。自2002年来,所持债券已经减少了75%。PIMCO, a huge bond-fund manager, said in a recent report, We see reduced liquidity as an important secular trend. It is an unintended consequence of the deleveraging and re-regulation of banks globally. It will result in higher volatility in times of stress.近期,太平洋投资管理公司发布的一篇报道称,我们认为流动性的降低将会是一个重要的长期趋势,这是全球重新平衡、管理的副作用。In other words, if investors ever lose their current enthusiasm for high-yield bonds, they will find it much harder, and probably costlier, to offload them.换句话说,如果投资者对高利债券的热情降低,他们便会发现想要抛售这些债券将会更加困难、或许还会付出更高代价。Meanwhile, the growing enthusiasm for high-yield bonds is likely to diminish the returns they offer.与此同时,随着人们对高利债券愈发热衷,其回报率也会相应降低。In the past investors typically bought junk bonds at a discount to their face value; they hoped that the profits on bonds that were repaid at maturity would offset the losses on the few issuers that defaulted.过去,投资者都是以折扣价买入垃圾债券,他们希望债券到期的收益能够抵消部分违约发行者带来的损失。Yet in May this year the average price of a high-yield bond reached 6% above face value, according to Mr Lundie.然而,据伦迪数据显示今年五月高利债券的平均价格超过了其面值的6%。Holding a bond until maturity will thus result in a capital loss, although investors may still profit from interest.尽管投资者仍可从利息中获利,但持有高利债券直至到期将会造成一定资本损失。Worse, many bonds—perhaps two-thirds or three-quarters of the market—have a call option attached to them that allows the issuer to repay the debt if it reaches a certain price.更糟糕的是许多债券—可能2/3或3/4的现行债券—都有看涨期权,如果债券达到一定价格,发行方可以偿还债务。That allows issuers to take advantage of growing optimism about their prospects to reissue bonds at lower interest.这也就使得发行方可以利用投资者不断高涨的乐观情绪,以更低的利率发行债券。Such call options skew the risk-reward trade-off.看涨期权让风险报酬交易失去了平衡。If a bond gets close to the callable price, it is unlikely to rise much further: who would bid 110 cents for a bond that can be redeemed at 104?如果某个债券接近可赎回价格,其价格也就不大可能会继续涨了:谁会愿意花110美分购买104美分就可以赎回的债券呢?On the other hand, if the company hits hard times, the bond could fall quite sharply in price. So investors face a limited upside and a big downside.另一方面,如果市场萧条,债券价格便会一落千丈。因此,对投资者来说此事弊大于利。That has tended to push investors towards ever riskier assets, such as CCC-rated bonds—the lowest category excluding those issuers that have aly defaulted.这回让投资者转向风险更大的债券,比如除违约债券以外的最低评级债券,CCC级债券。David Newman of Rogge Global Partners, a fund-management firm, reckons that such bonds are now probably overpriced, given the risks involved.来自资金管理公司Rogge Global Partners的大卫纽曼认为考虑到风险因素,这类债券目前可能定价过高。It is in the nature of the bond markets that, when conditions are good, investors get more relaxed about credit quality.债券市场的特性是当市场环境良好,投资者便会对信用质量更加放心。Some observers think that the risks of high-yield bonds are being systematically underestimated.部分观察人士认为,高利债券的风险被普遍低估。The sps paid by high-yield issuers are low relative to the historical average, although they are more than sufficient to compensate investors given the low level of defaults.尽管,考虑到低违约率,债券发行方更加确信可以让投资者收到回报;但是,同历史平均水平相比,现在高利债券发行方所付的利率更低。If central banks start raising interest rates to deal with a resurgence of inflation, or if the global economy slips back into recession, junk-bond investors may suffer a nasty shock. But for the moment they are enjoying the ride.如果央行为了规避通胀而开始提高利率,或者全球经济再度陷入萧条,垃圾债券投资者或许会损失惨重。但是,现在他们正享。 /201310/261375

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