2019年10月17日 19:43:20|来源:国际在线|编辑:中国报
A key reason why Yahoo#39;s board hired Marissa Mayer as its CEO was her deep-reaching social and professional connections through Silicon Valley.雅虎董事会聘用玛丽莎-梅耶尔为CEO的一大原因是其在硅谷与科技大腕们深厚的人脉关系。Those connections were on display last night at a dinner hosted by Nirav Tolia, a longtime Silicon Valley entrepreneur who#39;s now running Nextdoor, a local social network.这一点在昨晚尼拉夫-托利亚举办的晚宴中得以展现。尼拉夫-托利亚是硅谷资深企业家、本地社交网络Nextdoor的负责人。A prominent guest: Jony Ive, Apple#39;s senior vice president of hardware and software design. The CEOs of Twitter, Yelp, Path, and Dropbox were also there. Mike Cassidy, a director of the Google X skunkworks, posted a photo of the dinner on Facebook. A source alerted us to its presence.一大批硅谷科技大腕们齐聚一堂:苹果硬件和软件设计高级副总裁乔纳森-艾维;Twitter、Yelp、Path和Dropbox公司的CEO也悉数到场;谷歌X部门主管迈克-卡西迪出席并在Facebook上发布了一张晚宴照片。The interconnections between this group are staggering. Think of how Path#39;s mobile social network relies on Twitter and Apple, for example; or how Apple once courted Dropbox; or how Marissa Mayer, while at Google, reportedly championed an acquisition of Yelp.这些硅谷大佬们之间的关系让人感到惊讶。想想看:Path的移动社交网络依赖于Twitter和苹果;而苹果曾欲收购Dropbox;现任雅虎CEO的玛丽莎-梅耶尔在谷歌时又曾想要收购Yelp。We contacted several attendees or their press representatives. Stephanie Ichinose, a spokesperson for Yelp, confirmed CEO Jeremy Stoppelman#39;s attendance: ;He was at a dinner with a bunch of execs last night. Nothing more to report.;我们联系了几位与会人员或其媒体代表。Yelp公司发言人史蒂芬妮-伊奇诺斯实了该公司CEO杰里米-斯托普尔曼出席了宴会的消息,“他昨晚与其他高层们一起出席了晚宴。其他无可奉告。”No one else has commented on the event.对此事没有其他更多。Below the photo, a list of who came to dinner, from left to right, and how they#39;re connected.照片下方是参加这次晚宴的所有要人名单及他们之间的相互关系,从左到右依次是:1.Drew Houston, CEO, Dropbox: Steve Jobs tried to buy his online file-storage company.1.Dropbox在线文件存储公司CEO德鲁-豪斯顿:苹果的乔布斯曾试图收购他的在线文件存储公司。2.Trevor Traina, Traina Interactive: The son of San Francisco socialite Dede Wilsey worked at Microsoft and founded several startups. He#39;s a link between San Francisco#39;s older elites and the tech nouveau riche.2.Traina Interactive公司的特雷弗-特莱纳:他是美国旧金山社交名人戴德-威尔西的儿子,曾在微软工作,并创办了好几家创业公司。他是旧金山技术元老和新贵的联络人。3.Dave Morin, CEO, Path: Mayer is an investor in his wife#39;s startup, Brit amp; Co.3.Path公司CEO戴夫-莫林:他的妻子创办了一家公司Brit amp; Co,而梅耶尔是该公司的投资人。4.Dick Costolo, CEO, Twitter: Costolo seems to be close to Mayer, who invested in Twitter chairman Jack Dorsey#39;s payments startup, Square.4.Twitter公司CEO迪克-科斯特罗:科斯特罗似乎与梅耶尔关系密切,而梅耶尔则投资了Twitter董事长杰克-多西创办的付创业公司Square。5.Dion Lim, education startup CEO: Lim hasn#39;t revealed the name of his latest venture yet. He#39;s close to dinner host Tolia; the two cofounded Round Zero, a business-networking group popular in the dotcom era, and Epinions, a product-reviews site.5.某教育创业公司CEO迪昂-利姆:利姆并未透露其最新创业公司的名称。他与宴会主人托利亚关系密切,他们联手创办了Round Zero企业网络群组务和Epinions产品网站。6.Nirav Tolia, CEO, Nextdoor: Tolia was the face of Yahoo in the #39;90s, frequently appearing on TV to promote properties like Yahoo Finance. He now runs Nextdoor, a private social network for neighborhoods.6.Nextdoor公司CEO尼拉夫-托利亚:在上世纪90年代,托利亚就是雅虎的形象,经常出现在电视上,负责推广雅虎财经等资产。他现在运营Nextdoor本地社交网络。7.Jeremy Stoppelman, CEO, Yelp: Mayer, an early and enthusiastic user of Yelp, tried to buy the local-business-reviews site when she worked at Google.7.Yelp公司CEO杰里米-斯托普尔曼:梅耶尔是Yelp本地商家网站的早期热心用户,她在谷歌工作时,曾试图收购这家网站。8.Michael Birch, cofounder, Bebo: After selling his social network to AOL for 0 million, Birch now focuses on nonprofit efforts like Charity:Water and running a startup incubator.8.Bebo公司联合创始人迈克尔-波奇:波奇将其社交网络Bebo作价8.5亿美元出售给了AOL。现在,他一门心思地做起了公益事业Charity:Water,他还经营着一家创业公司孵化机构。9.Mike Cassidy, director, Google X: Google X is the search giant#39;s secretive skunkworks for projects like self-driving cars and Google Glass, an Internet-connected headset.9.谷歌X部门主管迈克-卡西迪:谷歌X是这个搜索巨头的非常神秘的部门,负责的项目包括无人驾驶汽车和谷歌眼镜。10.Jony Ive, SVP, Apple: After executive Scott Forstall#39;s departure, Ive gained oversight over Apple#39;s software design as well as its hardware products. As such, he#39;s a critical contact for pretty much everyone in the room.10. 苹果高级副总裁乔纳森-艾维:在苹果高管斯科特-福斯托尔离职后,艾弗担起了苹果软件和硬件设计的全部重任。因此,他是晚宴上举足轻重的人物。11.Marissa Mayer, CEO, Yahoo: She has work or personal connections to almost everyone in this room.11.雅虎CEO玛丽莎-梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer):她与晚宴上的每个人都有工作或私人方面的联系。12.Bret Taylor, CEO, Quip: The former CTO of Facebook is now running a stealth startup.12. Quip公司CEO布雷特-泰勒(Bret Taylor):他曾是Facebook的首席技术官,现在经营着一家神秘的创业公司。 /201301/221561Apple Inc. AAPL -2.28% introduced two newiPhones on Tuesday in an effort to expand the company#39;s reach into new marketswhile solidifying its foothold in high-end smartphones.苹果公司周二发布两款新iPhone手机,试图将影响力扩大到新的市场,同时巩固其在高端智能手机市场的地位。Apple#39;s handset lineup will include aless-expensive model, called the iPhone 5C, at for 16 gigabytes with atwo-year wireless-service contract, as well as with a new high-end phone calledthe iPhone 5S, at 9 for 16 GB with a contract. Both phones can be purchasedSept. 20 in the U.S. and other countries, including China. Customers can orderthe 5C starting Friday.苹果的手机系列将包括一个较便宜的机型,即iPhone 5C,16G版售价99美元,需签订两年无线务合同,此外还将包括一款新高端手机iPhone5S,16G内存带合同售价199美元。这两款手机将于9月20日在美国和包括中国在内的其他国家上市销售。消费者可以从本周五开始预订iPhone 5C。The iPhone 5S-in luxury-styled gold, silverand dark gray-will include a fingerprint scanner called Touch ID that allowsusers to unlock their phones or make purchases from Apple#39;s iTunes store bytouching the home button.iPhone 5S有华丽的金色、银色和深灰色可以选择,这款手机将包括一个名为Touch ID的指纹识别器,用户可以通过触摸主页按钮来解锁手机或者在苹果的iTunes商店购物。#39;This is our most-forward thinking phoneyet,#39; said Phil Schiller, Apple#39;s head of world-wide marketing at aninvitation-only event at the company#39;s Cupertino, Calif., headquarters.苹果全球营销部门负责人席勒(PhilSchiller)在发布会上说,这是迄今为止我们最超前的产品。此次发布会在位于加州库比蒂诺的苹果总部召开,仅限受邀请的人参加。The new smartphone lineup, while largelyexpected, is one of Apple#39;s most important product refreshes in years. Thoughthe smartphone industry is booming, Apple has continued to lose market share torivals such as Samsung Electronics Co. 005930.SE +1.16% and Lenovo Group Ltd.,0992.HK +3.88% each of which have released myriad products to attract an arrayof customers.这两款新产品虽然已在外界普遍预料之中,但是苹果多年来最重要的升级产品。尽管智能手机市场正在繁荣发展,苹果的市场份额却持续流向包括三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)和联想集团有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd., 简称:联想集团)等竞争对手,这两家公司都已发布了众多吸引大量消费者的产品。The less-expensive iPhone 5C, whichfeatures a new polycarbonate casing but few other improvements over Apple#39;sprevious iPhone 5 model, is #39;made with all the incredible technology thatcustomers love,#39; said Mr. Schiller. The 5C will come in five colors-green,white, blue, red and yellow-and have a 4-inch retina display and A6 chip.席勒说,较便宜的iPhone 5C是由消费者喜爱的所有令人惊叹的技术制造而成。这款手机采用了新的聚碳酸酯外壳,但与苹果此前的iPhone 5相比改进不多。iPhone 5C将有绿色、白色、蓝色、红色和黄色五种颜色可以选择,这款手机配备了一个4英寸视网膜显示屏和A6芯片。Apple has traditionally discountedprevious-generation phones to with new releases, but this time is droppingthe older iPhone 5 from the lineup.苹果通常在发布新产品时都会将前一代的手机降价至99美元,但此次该公司选择让旧版iPhone5下线。 /201309/256180

In the American time of 10 o#39;clock on September 12 (the Beijing standard time of 1 o#39;clock on September 13), the Apple Corporation held the conference at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, duly releasing its sixth phone—iPhone5. In addition, the Apple also published the latest music player iPod touch 5, iPod nano 7 and new “earpod” exposed before in the conference. Except mobile phone and digital products, Apple Company announced the specific time to market and the function of new iTunes and iOS6 at the same time.美国时间9月12日上午10点(北京时间9月13日1点),苹果在旧金山芳草地艺术中心(Yerba Buena Center)召开发布会,如期发布了旗下第六款手机iPhone5。此外,苹果还在大会上推出最新款的音乐播放器iPod touch 5、iPod nano 7和之前曝光过的新款耳机“earpod”。除了手机、数码产品外,苹果公司同时宣布了新版iTunes和iOS6的具体上市时间及功能细节。 /201209/199616

In 2006, self-proclaimed hustler Gary Vaynerchuk decided it was time to try something new. Over the previous 10 years, Vaynerchuk had expanded his father’s liquor store into a successful wine business called Wine Library. However, for the ambitious young man, this was only the beginning. He had always had a nose for trends, and he could sense a real shift in how customers were making buying decisions. He wanted to capitalize on it.2006年,自称是小商贩的加里·沃伊涅尔查克决定,是时候尝试新东西了。过去10年中,沃伊涅尔查克已经把他父亲的酒铺扩大成了一家名叫“葡萄酒图书馆”(Wine Library)的成功酒企。然而,对于这位雄心勃勃的年轻人来说,这仅仅是个开始。他一直很善于发现潮流所向,能够感觉到客户作出购买决策的方式正在发生切实的转变。他打算利用这种变化赚一笔。Vaynerchuk set up a camera and had a colleague shoot him talking about wine. He was direct, brash, funny, and above all, informative. But what really set him apart was his sheer work ethic. He posted a new episode of his “ blog,” which he dubbed Wine Library TV, five days a week and relentlessly supported the content by tweeting in every spare moment, until three in the morning and beyond.沃伊涅尔查克架设了一个摄像头,让一位同事拍摄他聊葡萄酒的画面。他的直截了当,尖锐犀利,风趣幽默,最重要的是,信息量非常大。但不知疲倦的工作态度才是他真正与众不同的地方。他每周有5天会都发布一段全新的“视频客”(他把它戏称为“葡萄酒图书馆电视”),而且一有空就发微,坚持不懈地为视频内容提供持,一直到凌晨三点,甚至更晚。Vaynerchuk’s methods paid off. Not only did his wine selling business grow to unparalleled heights, he became a bestselling author with books like Crush It!and Jab, Jab, Jab Right Hook. He was featured on the covers of top business magazines and received invitations to speak in front of massive audiences of entrepreneurs and executives. His fans even began calling themselves Vayniacs.沃伊涅尔查克的方法得到了回报。不仅葡萄酒销售生意增长到了空前的高度,他本人也成了一位畅销书作家,代表作包括《粉碎它!》(Crush It!)和《右钩拳》( Jab, Jab, Jab Right Hook)。此外,他频频登上顶级商业杂志的封面,而且还经常受邀在大批企业家和高管面前发表演讲。他的拥趸甚至开始以“沃伊脑残粉”自称。Gary Vaynerchuk’s ascent to online stardom and real world riches typifies a powerful trend in business today. The idea, written about in countless articles and business books, is that the only way to make it in the digital age is to relentlessly promote your “personal brand,” especially though social media.加里o沃伊涅尔查克崛起为网络明星、同时在现实世界赢得万贯身家的经历代表了当今工商界的一个强大趋势。这种理念已经被无数文章和商业书籍探讨过,它就是:在数字时代收获成功的唯一途径是,不遗余力地推广你的“个人品牌”,特别是通过社交媒体。The intensity of this process can be daunting. As such, a cottage industry of inspirational business advice has sprouted online, full of aphorisms that combine self-help and tough love. In fact, Vaynerchuk put it best during an interview on Mashable, where he looked into the camera and stated with his characteristic confidence, “If I’m more successful than you, there’s one reason for it—it’s because I outworked you.” And by work, he means spending a huge number of hours building fans of his Internet persona.这个进程的强度可能令人胆寒。正因为如此,一个致力于提供励志商业建议的作坊式产业已经在网上破土而出,它充满了集自助和严厉之爱于一身的格言警句。事实上,还是沃伊涅尔查说得最清楚不过。他在接受社交媒体客Mashable采访时盯着摄像头,带着他特有的自信,言之凿凿地说:“如果我比你更成功,那只有一个原因——因为我比你工作得更努力。”他所说的工作指的是,花费大量时间为他的网络形象打造粉丝群。It is a recipe for success that is attractive, intuitive, and appealing to our fundamentally American belief if you hustle long and hard enough to get yourself in front of people, you can make all your dreams come true. There’s only one problem—for many of us, it doesn’t work.这是一种极具吸引力、非常直观的成功秘诀,非常符合美国人秉持的一项基本理念:如果你比其他人更加持久、更加努力地拼搏,你所有的梦想都可以变为现实。这里只有一个问题——对于许多人来说,这样做根本行不通。The soaring popularity of “self branding” is just one of the topics addressed in David Zweig’s new bookInvisibles: The Power of Anonymous Work in an Age of Relentless Self-Promotion (Portfolio/Penguin), which is slated for release later this month. Named as a Top Business Book to Read in 2014 by Adam Grant, a Wharton professor and bestselling author in his own right, Zweig challenges the pervasive notion that the people who spend the most time getting others to pay attention to them win. He accomplishes this by conducting in-depth profiles of individuals who are at the zenith of professional success in their fields and who actively shun the spotlight.“自我品牌营销”不断飙升的人气仅仅是大卫o兹威格的新书《隐形:在自我推销时代中匿名工作的力量》(Invisibles: The Power of Anonymous Work in an Age of Relentless Self-Promotion)探讨的主题之一。这部定于本月末发行的著作被沃顿商学院(Wharton)教授、畅销书作家亚当o格兰特誉为2014年最值得期待的商业书籍。兹威格试图挑战一个普遍认同的观点:花费最多时间争夺其他人眼球的那个人终将获胜。为了达到这个目的,他深入剖析了一些正处于各自职业生涯顶峰,同时主动避开聚光灯的成功人士。Some of those Zweig examines in his book include one of the world’s leading perfume developers, the structural engineer of the largest building on earth, and the guitar technician for the multiplatinum rock band Radiohead. All of the highly successful (and well-paid) masters featured in Invisibles work long hours, in some cases as long or even longer than what the self-branding Maharishis prescribe. But instead of spending these hours on promotional hustle, they dedicate time to working on and refining their actual craft.这本著作审视的成功人士包括一位全球顶级香水开发商,全球最大建筑物的结构工程师,以及发行过多张白金唱片的摇滚乐队电台司令(Radiohead)的吉他手。在《隐形》一书中,所有大获成功(而且收入不菲)的大师级人物都在长时间工作,其中一些人的工作时间跟自我营销的精神领袖所指示的时间一样长,甚至还要更长。但他们并没有利用这些时间叫卖,而是全身心地工作,打磨自己的技艺。Zweig’s argument is not that marketing is evil or useless. “I’m not suggesting that some types of professionals don’t need to self-promote,” he writes, “Many of us do.”茨威格并不是要说,营销是邪恶的,也不是要论营销是无用的。“我并不是说某些类型的专业人才不需要自我推销,”他写道。“很多人都需要。”There’s no denying that people like Gary Vaynerchuk have built empires by working into the wee hours of the morning to draw attention to themselves and their brands. In an age where doing an Internet search is the first step in virtually every buying decision, those who don’t maintain an online presence have a tough road ahead of them—no matter how well-crafted their work. The author’s overriding point is simply that a culture that favors around-the-clock hustle at the expense of all else holds back as many businesses as it helps.不可否认,以加里o沃伊涅尔查克为代表的自我推销一族往往工作到凌晨时分,为自己和自己的品牌赢得了关注,最终建立起了自己的商业帝国。在如今这个时代,上网搜索已经成为几乎每一项购买决策的第一步,那些没有在网络上安营扎寨的人往往要面临一段坎坷的前程——无论他们的产品工艺多么精良。兹威格最重要的观点很简单:如果一种文化青睐的是不计代价、24小时全天候的吆喝叫卖,那么它能推动多少企业,就一样也能拖累多少企业。So the question remains: How do you compete if your particular business requires you to be up until three in the morning making wine instead of selling the wine that someone else has made?因此,问题仍然是:如果你经营的那门生意需要你直至凌晨三点还在酿酒,而不是叫卖其他人已经做好的酒,你怎么去竞争?One option is to eschew personal brand building in favor of building a community. Instead of personally writing every blog post, answering every comment, and crafting every tweet, you might instead build a network of people in your industry willing to share in content creation duties. By positioning yourself as the lynchpin of that community, you often gain as much visibility as you would otherwise.一种选择是,不要建设个人品牌,转而建设一个社区。不是亲自撰写每篇客文章,回答每一个,构思每条微,你或许应该在你的产业内打造一个人际网络,让其他人分担内容创作任务。如果你摆正位置,设法成为这个社区的轴心,你往往可以获得同样多的曝光度。Another approach is to arm your employees with the tools, training, and encouragement to each contribute a small amount of content over an extended period of time. While it may feel good to take a solo in the spotlight, letting everyone on your team chip in can multiply the effect while still leaving plenty of time for you to do the work that really matters.另一种方法是,用工具和培训武装你的员工,鼓励每个人在一段较长期间内贡献少量内容。虽然一个人独占聚光灯的感觉或许很好,但让团队中每个人都参与进来,往往能够成倍放大推销效果,这样做还可以给你留出足够多的时间,让你从事真正重要的工作。Whatever promotional strategy you ultimately choose, there’s one thing that’s clear—for many of us, shifting the focus from “me” to “we” is the secret to building, marketing, and selling something truly great.无论你最终选择何种推销战略,有一件事情非常明显——对于我们许多人来说,把重心从“我”转移到“我们”,是构建、营销和销售真正伟大的产品的秘诀所在。Michael Schein is the founder and principal of Michael Schein Communications, a digital marketing firm that has created or facilitated content creation for companies including eBay, LinkedIn, Avectra.本文作者迈克尔·施恩是迈克尔o施恩通信公司创始人兼负责人。这家数字营销公司已经为包括eBay、LinkedIn和Avectra等公司创造了许多营销内容。 /201407/310079

Investors for years have been searching in vain for a formula to replicate Warren Buffett#39;s legendary returns over the past 50 years.多年来,投资者一直在寻找一套公式,以图复制沃伦#12539;巴菲特(Warren Buffett)50年取得的神奇回报,但都徒劳无功。The wait could be over.或许不必再找了。A new study that claims to have uncovered this formula was published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. Its authors, all of whom have strong academic credentials, work for AQR Capital Management, a firm that manages several hedge funds and other investment offerings and has billion in assets.马萨诸塞州坎布里奇国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)11月份发表一项新研究成果,声称找到了这套公式。论文作者都有深厚的学术资历,他们供职的AQR资产管理公司(AQR Capital Management)管理着多只对冲基金和其他一些投资产品,资产规模达900亿美元。The study#39;s authors analyzed Mr. Buffett#39;s record since he acquired Berkshire Hathaway in 1964. Their formula, which has more than a dozen individual components, comes in two major parts.论文作者分析了巴菲特从1964年收购伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)以来的投资成绩。他们的公式含有十多个单项,可以归纳为两个主要部分。The first is a #39;focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks,#39; defined as those that have exhibited below-average volatility and sport low ratios of price-to-book value -- a measure of net worth. In addition, the researchers looked for stocks whose profits are growing at an above-average pace and that pay out a significant portion of their earnings as dividends.第一部分是“专注于便宜、安全、优质的股票”,即波动性低于平均水平、股价与每股账面价值之比(市净率,一种净值衡量指标)不高的股票。除此以外,研究人员还看好利润增长高于平均速度、相当大一部分利润当作股息派发出去的股票。The second part of the formula will raise eyebrows: It calls for investing in these stocks #39;on margin#39; -- that is, borrowing money to buy more shares than could otherwise be purchased. To match Mr. Buffett#39;s long-term return, the researchers found, a portfolio would need to be 60% on margin -- borrowing enough so that it owned 0 of #39;cheap, safe, quality stocks#39; for every 0 of portfolio value.公式的第二部分将会令人错愕:它要求用“保金交易”来投资这些股票,也就是借钱买股,买进的数量比不借钱能够买到的更多。研究人员发现,要达到巴菲特那样的长期回报,投资组合需要有60%的借入比例,也就是说,借款比例足以让每100美元的投资组合持有160美元“便宜、安全、优质的股票”。Andrea Frazzini, one of the study#39;s authors, a finance professor at New York University and a vice president at AQR, said the Berkshire portfolio has, on average, been leveraged to a similar extent through Mr. Buffett#39;s career.论文作者之一、纽约大学(New York University)金融学教授、AQR公司副总裁安德烈亚#12539;弗拉奇尼 (Andrea Frazzini)说,在巴菲特整个职业生涯中,伯克希尔投资组合的平均杠杆率一直与上述水平相当。It can be easy to overlook the extent of this leverage, since Mr. Buffett is able to borrow from other parts of his business. But that doesn#39;t mean the company isn#39;t still leveraged, Mr. Frazzini argues. According to its most recent annual report, for example, the total value of Berkshire#39;s holdings are double the company#39;s net worth, implying that its current leverage is about 2-to-1 -- somewhat higher than its long-term average.这样的杠杆率很容易被忽略,因为巴菲特可以从他公司的其他部门借款。但弗拉奇尼说,这并不意味着该公司就没有杠杆了。比如从最近年报来看,伯克希尔的持股总值是其净值的两倍,说明它当前的杠杆率约为2比1──比它的长期平均水平还要高一些。Employing margin can magnify profits, of course. It also increases potential losses when things go wrong. But note that the formula combines a heavy use of margin with stocks that tend to be much less risky than the market, so the net result can still be a portfolio that is no riskier than the market as a whole.采用保金交易当然可以放大利润。当行情不妙的时候,它也会增加潜在损失。但请注意,前面说的那套公式是将保金交易的大量使用同风险远低于市场的股票结合,所以综合来看的话,投资组合的风险仍然可以不高于大市。To be sure, a heavily margined portfolio will always run the risk of getting a #39;margin call#39; -- the need to come up with additional cash -- if its holdings fall too far. Berkshire Hathaway has been able to sidestep that risk over the last 50 years. Despite a heavily reliance on leverage, its worst return in any calendar year was a loss of 9.6%. And its book value has been less volatile than the Samp;P 500. Volatility is a common measure of a portfolio#39;s risk.无可否认的是,大量使用保金交易的投资组合始终存在收到“追加保金通知”的风险──如果所持资产跌幅太大,那么就要存入更多的现金。伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦在过去50年里一直能够避开这种风险。虽然严重依赖于杠杆,其自然年度最差的回报率也就是亏损9.6%。而且其账面价值的波动性也低于标准普尔500种股票指数(Samp;P 500)。波动性是衡量投资组合风险的一个常用指标。One factor that is conspicuous in its absence from the formula is anything to account for Mr. Buffett#39;s significant investments in privately owned companies. But that isn#39;t necessary, according to the researchers, because the public companies in which he has invested have outperformed the private ones.公式中明显缺失的一个因素,是它没有解释巴菲特为什么大量投资非上市公司。但研究人员说,这没有必要,因为他所投上市公司的表现好于非上市公司。This is somewhat surprising, given that Mr. Buffett has often trumpeted his abilities to pick good managers. Yet the researchers nevertheless find that his #39;returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management.#39; (A Berkshire Hathaway spokeswoman said that Mr. Buffett declined to be interviewed.)考虑到巴菲特常常鼓吹他挑选优秀管理人员的能力,这一点多少让人吃惊。但研究人员还是发现,其回报“更多地源于选股,而非他对管理层的影响”。(伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦发言人表示巴菲特不接受采访。)Lasse Pedersen, another of the study#39;s authors, a finance professor at New York University and a principal at AQR, stressed that Mr. Buffett still deserves plenty of credit. After all, he says, it has taken years for researchers to come up with a formula that, after the fact, does as well as Mr. Buffett has been doing for nearly 50 years. In addition, he had the discipline to stick to his approach through both thick and thin.论文的另一名作者、纽约大学金融学教授、AQR主要负责人之一拉斯#12539;佩德森(Lasse Pedersen)强调,巴菲特并非浪得虚名。他说,毕竟研究人员花了数年时间才总结出一套“马后炮”表现与巴菲特近50年投资成绩相当的公式。除此以外,他还拥有不论丰歉都坚守既定方针的自控力。Unfortunately, the investment formula that the researchers devised isn#39;t necessarily easy for individual investors to follow. It requires investing in a large and diversified basket of stocks, for example. Furthermore, adhering to the formula can be challenging for a portfolio that relies on margin.不幸的是,研究人员总结出来的这套投资公式散户应用起来不一定容易。比如它要求投资一大篮子多样化的股票。另外,对于一个依靠保金交易的投资组合来说,坚守这套公式也有可能遇到挑战。Nevertheless, it may be possible for you to at least partially follow the researchers#39; formula without actually resorting to borrowed money. If you have cash in your portfolio, for example, you could add it to the portion you aly have allocated to equities-achieving the equivalent of going on margin by, in effect, #39;borrowing#39; from yourself. This, of course, is what Mr. Buffett does by borrowing from other parts of his business.但是,你或许还是能够在不借钱的情况下至少部分地运用研究人员总结出的这套公式。比如,如果你的投资组合里面有现金,你可以把这些现金加到已经配置于股市的那部分中去。这在事实上是自己给自己借钱,也就相当于做保金交易。巴菲特从他公司的其他部门借钱,当然也就是这种办法。Even if you decide not to follow the researchers#39; investment formula precisely, this new study has important investment implications. For example, since the study#39;s authors find that Mr. Buffett#39;s record is due to #39;neither luck nor magic,#39; Berkshire#39;s performance need not suffer after Mr. Buffett retires -- so long as his successor is able to do just as good a job picking stocks.即使你决定不完全按照研究人员的投资公式去做,这项新研究也有着重要的投资含义。比如论文作者发现巴菲特的成绩“既不是因为运气,也不是因为魔力”,所以如果继任者的选股能力跟他一样好,伯克希尔在巴菲特退休之后的表现就不一定很差。That#39;s a pretty big #39;if,#39; of course, but the researchers#39; findings imply that a strict adherence to the same investment principles could, over time, do as well as Mr. Buffett has done historically.当然这个“如果”是个很大的假设,但研究人员的发现意味着,如果严格遵守同样投资原则的话,随着时间的推移,投资成绩是可以达到巴菲特的历史水平的。The study also holds out the tantalizing possibility that an investor following the formula can perform even better than Berkshire. That#39;s because, as Mr. Buffett has pointed out, his portfolio has grown so large that it will be difficult for it to perform as well in the future. In contrast, a smaller portfolio can profit from investing in stocks that are too small to make any meaningful difference to Berkshire#39;s bottom line.另外,这项研究也展示了一种撩拨人心的可能性:遵守这套公式的投资者甚至可以取得比伯克希尔还要好的成绩。因为巴菲特自己也说过,他的投资组合已经变得十分庞大,将来会很难拥有同样的表现。相比之下,规模更小的投资组合可以投资于因为太小、不足以给伯克希尔利润表现带来实质性改变的股票,从而获利。The following stocks from within the Samp;P 1500 index score favorably along each of the five dimensions that the researchers employ in defining #39;cheap, safe, quality stocks,#39; according to FactSet. The ratios of their prices to per-share book values are below average, as are their #39;betas#39; -- a measure of the extent to which their prices move in lock step with the overall market.据FactSet说,以下取自标准普尔1500种股票指数(Samp;P 1500)的股票非常符合研究人员在定义“便宜、安全、优质股票”时确定的五个维度。它们的价格相对于每股账面价值的比率低于平均水平,衡量股价与大市联动程度的“beta系数”也低于平均水平。In addition, these stocks are of companies whose #39;profitability#39; -- or total profits as a percentage of assets -- is above average, as is the five-year growth rate of that profitability. And, finally, these stocks are of firms whose dividends represent an above-average proportion of their earnings.除此以外,这些股票代表的公司“盈利能力”(总利润除以资产总额)高于平均水平,“盈利能力”五年增长率也高于平均水平。最后,这些股票所代表公司的派息额占其利润的比重也高于平均水平。Examples include drug retailer CVS Caremark; Devry Education Group, a for-profit education company; chipmaker Intel, Owens amp; Minor, a medical-supplies distributor; grocery distributor Spartan Stores; and Vectren, an energy holding company.这些股票包括:药品零售企业CVS Caremark;营利性教育企业Devry Education Group;芯片制造企业英特尔(Intel);医药用品经销商Owens amp; Minor;百货经销企业Spartan Stores;能源控股公司Vectren。Though there are no mutual funds that pick stocks according to the precise formula the researchers devise, several come close. One is offered by AQR: the U.S. Defensive Equity Fund, with an annual 0.51% expense ratio, or for every ,000 invested. Though the fund has a high minimum for those investing in it directly, it is available to investors through their financial advisers.虽然没有哪只共同基金是完全根据研究人员总结的公式来选股,但也有好几只比较接近。有一只是AQR销售的“防守型美股基金”(U.S. Defensive Equity Fund),年费率0.51%,即投资1万美元要交51美元的费用。这只基金为直接投资的人设定了一个很高的最低额度,但投资者可以通过他们的投资顾问机构来投资。Another fund that focuses on some of the same stock-picking methods is the DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio. It is available to individuals only through their financial advisers or certain retirement and 529 plans, and fees vary.另一只侧重于上述一部分选股方法的基金是“DFA大盘美股投资组合”(DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio)。散户只能通过投资顾问机构或某些退休金计划、529大学储蓄计划来投资,费率各有差别。The exchange-traded fund that perhaps come closest to following the researchers#39; stock-picking methodology is iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor, with an expense ratio of 0.15%. It invests in stocks with a high return on equity and stable earnings growth.最接近研究人员选股方法的交易所交易基金,可能是“iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor”。费率为0.15%。它投资的是净资产收益率高、利润增长稳定的股票。 /201312/270455

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