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2020年02月17日 19:08:28 | 作者:排名养生 | 来源:新华社
The Chinese state could be behind a surge in gold imports that will see China overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of the metal, according to one of the sector’s most influential investors.黄金行业最具影响力的投资机构之一指出,中国政府或许是中国黄金进口量大增背后的主要因素。中国将超越印度成为全球最大黄金消费国。Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of BlackRock’s Natural Resources Equity team, said the investment community had been surprised by the amount of gold flowing into China given its spot as the world’s biggest gold producer.贝莱德(BlackRock)的自然资源股票(Natural Resources Equity)团队首席投资官韩艾飞(Evy Hambro)表示,投资界对流入中国的黄金数量感到惊讶,因为中国是全球第一大黄金生产国。“The total amount of gold being consumed in China is a gigantic quantum, and you have to wonder where that gold is going,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Is it going on to wrists, ears and necks or is it going into state reserves?”韩艾飞在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示:“中国的黄金消费总量是一个巨大的数值,你不能不猜想这么多黄金究竟去了哪里。是变成了人们手腕上、耳垂上以及脖子上佩戴的首饰,还是成为了国家储备?”The People’s Bank of China has not provided an update on its gold reserves since 2009, when it reported a holding of 1,054 tonnes. But the suspicion among some analysts is that China’s central bank has purchased up to 300 tonnes of gold this year.中国央行(People’s Bank of China)自2009年以来就未再公布过有关其黄金储备的最新数据,2009年该行持有1054吨黄金。但一些分析师怀疑,中国央行今年买入了多达300吨黄金。Gold has lost more than a quarter of its value this year, falling from ,674 a troy ounce to ,233, and is on course to record its first annual price fall in 13 years. Against a backdrop of persistently low inflation, an improving global economy, surging stock prices and the imminent end of US monetary stimulus, institutional investors have dumped gold.今年以来黄金价格下跌超过四分之一,从每金衡盎司1674美元降至每金衡盎司1233美元,即将在近13年以来首次出现全年价格下跌。在通胀水平持续偏低、全球经济形势好转、股票价格飙升以及美国货币刺激政策即将告终的背景下,机构投资者纷纷抛出黄金。Holdings of gold-backed exchange traded funds, one of the most popular methods of gold investment, have fallen by 824 tonnes to 1,939 tonnes in the year to date, according to Barclays. Demand from India has been muted because of government restrictions on gold imports. Indian consumption fell 32 per cent in the third quarter to 148 tonnes, the lowest since early 2009.实物黄金持的交易所交易基金(ETF)是投资黄金最流行的方法之一。巴克莱(Barclays)提供的数据显示,这类基金的黄金持有量已从年初的1939吨降至目前的824吨。此外印度的黄金需求也受到抑制,因印度政府出台了限制黄金进口的措施。印度今年第三季度的黄金消费量下降32%,至148吨,为2009年初以来的最低水平。China does not report on its gold trade. Analysts rely on data from other countries, of which Hong Kong is by far the biggest supplier. Records show exports of gold from Hong Kong to China reached 955 tonnes by the end of October, up from 376 tonnes over the same period in 2012.中国不提供其黄金贸易数据。分析师依靠其他管辖区的数据来推算中国的黄金进出口规模,其中香港是中国内地遥遥领先的最大黄金供应来源。记录显示,今年1月至10月,香港对中国内地的黄金出口量达到了955吨,远高于2012年同期的376吨。Including local mine production and recycling of scrapped gold, Macquarie estimates total gold supply into China this year could reach 1,800 tonnes.若计入中国国内矿企的黄金产量以及废旧黄金回收利用,麦格理(Macquarie)估计中国今年的黄金供应总量可能达到1800吨。Outside of China, central banks have slowed their purchases of gold this year to 300 tonnes by the end of September.在中国以外,各国央行今年放缓了黄金购买速度,截至9月底的黄金购入总量仅为300吨。 /201312/269478Starting with his first novel, “Native Speaker,” the Korean-American author Chang-rae Lee has written of immigrant experiences in the ed States. His latest novel, “On Such a Full Sea,” centers on a Chinese woman named Fan who is a laborer in a city called B-Mor, a future version of Baltimore. The novel is a dystopian tale, set in an era when nations around the world are suffering from overwhelming environmental degradation. Fan is one of tens of thousands of Chinese from smog-choked Shanxi Province who have taken jobs as food production workers in B-Mor to escape their toxic homeland.从小说处女作《母语人士》(Native Speaker)开始,韩裔美国作家李昌来(Chang-rae Lee)写了很多在美国的移民经历。在他的最新小说《在如此完满的大海上》(On Such a Full Sea)中,主人公是一个名叫“范”(Fan)的中国女人,生活在一个名为B-Mor的城市,而B-Mor其实是未来的巴尔的。这部小说讲述了一个反乌托邦的故事,设定各国处在铺天盖地的环境退化灾难之中。范来自雾霾严重的山西省,那里有数以万计的中国人和她一样,逃离环境毒化的家乡,前往B-Mor当食品生产工人。Mr. Lee, who also teaches creative writing at Princeton University, was in Beijing for the annual Bookworm Literary Festival, which runs to March 29. Last Sunday, I hosted a conversation with him that included questions from an audience at the Bookworm. Following are lightly edited excerpts, transcribed by Becky Davis:李昌来在普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)教授创意写作课程,本次他前往北京参加一年一度的老书虫国际文学节(Bookworm Literary Festival)期间,我主持了与他的对话,其中包括书虫节听众的提问。书虫节将于3月29日周日闭幕。以下是稍作编辑的对话摘要,由贝基·戴维斯(Becky Davis)从录音转录为文字。Q. Earlier today, I was at the Chinese prime minister’s press conference. He said China hadn’t done enough on pollution and that he really needs to push forward in the war against pollution. In your latest novel, “On Such a Full Sea,” the future that you envision is one in which China loses the war on pollution. Can you tell us why you see this being the future of the world? 问:今天早些时候,我参加了中国总理的记者招待会。他说,中国在防治污染方面做得不够,他需要大力推动反污染的斗争。在你的最新小说《在如此完满的大海上》中,你设想中国未来在这场斗争中失败。你能讲讲为什么会设定这样的未来世界吗?A. It’s not just China — it’s really everyone, in the book. 答:这不只是中国——在这本书里,其实所有国家都是这样。The book is set some vague number of years ahead, 150 to 200 years, I’m not that specific about it. But I am very specific about the kinds of implications for the people of the society, which is that they all suffer from a certain kind of inevitable disease, which they call “sea,” which is something that’s sort of lurking out there mysteriously. They can’t really address it. And obviously that comes from the violation of the environment.这本书设定了一个不太确切的未来时刻,是未来150到200年之间,我没有把年份弄得很具体。但我非常具体地描述了那个社会的公众所处的境况,即他们全都患上了某种不可避免的疾病,他们称这种疾病为“海”,是一种潜伏在外面的神秘东西。他们没法真正应对这个问题。显然,这种疾病来自环境污染。They’re always talking about being careful about the things that you eat, the water that you drink. One of the conceits of the book is that there is a production facility called B-Mor in the former Baltimore, and this production facility is a facility that provides pristine fishes and vegetables for an elite class of people. And the very fact of its existence is that everything outside is too poisoned and too ruined to trust.他们总是在谈论要小心注意吃的东西,喝的水。书中设定了一个生产基地,名为B-Mor,位于以前的巴尔的。这个生产基地为精英阶层提供未受污染的鱼类和蔬菜。它的存在表明,外面的一切东西都毒化了,受到了毁损,不能信任。I don’t get into the environmental issues very much. There’s some guy who kept writing me every week after the book came out and said, can you just come out and say that this is a “Cli-Fi” novel? I don’t know, he must have had a trademark [on the term] or something. There’s climate anxiety [in the novel], but it’s not that geeky about it. It’s almost a psychic condition, of feeling beleaguered.我没有非常深入地阐释环保问题。这本书出版之后,有个人每周都写信给我,希望我能站出来说这是一本“气候变化小说”。我不清楚,他肯定有个和这个词有关的商标什么的。这本书中涉及了关于气候的焦虑感,但没有达到那种怪咖程度。它差不多算是一种焦头烂额的心理状态。Today, we were just walking around. I bought my first mask here, which I kind of liked. But then I noticed that the mask itself smelled sort of chemically. So I was thinking, maybe the mask is actually worse for you than the air.今天,我们只是到处闲逛了逛。我在这里买了第一个口罩,我还有点喜欢它。但后来我发现,口罩本身就散发出某种化学味道。所以我想,也许对你来说,在这里戴口罩其实比直接呼吸空气更糟糕。Q. You were originally going to write a novel about China but then you took the train past Baltimore, and decided to set it there. In your original conception of the novel, why did you want to set a book in China? You came to China on one or two trips to do some research — could you tell us about that? 问:你本来打算写一本关于中国的小说,但你在有一次乘火车路过巴尔的之后,决定把背景设置在那里。在你最初的小说构思中,为什么要把一本书的背景设置在中国呢?你来了中国一两趟,做了一些调研,能介绍一下这方面的情况吗?A. My original idea was to write a kind of social fabric novel about Chinese factory workers. So in about 2011 or so, I went to Shenzhen. My sister lives in Hong Kong, so it was an easy trip. I sort of finagled my way into a factory. It was a really fascinating visit for me. I hadn’t been to a factory and had all these preconceptions about what I would see. It actually wasn’t so horrible. I don’t know if people have gone to that area — that’s where you know all the factories are, you know. They’re not really factories so much as they are settlements. And this particular settlement, this factory that I went to was a facility that produced tiny electrical motors, the kind that drive a DVD tray or a side-view mirror. So it wasn’t a big, huge industrial complex. It was really more like a campus, but a really grubby one — kind of rundown. There was nothing aesthetically pleasing about it. 答:我最初的想法是写一部关于中国工厂工人的社会结构小说。因此,大约在2011年,我去了深圳。我住在香港,所以去那里很方便。我差不多连哄带骗地进入了一家工厂。对我来说,这次访问真正的很有意义。我之前从没有去过工厂,对于将会在那里看到什么存在各种成见。实际上那里并不是那么可怕。我不知道大家是否去过那里——所有工厂都在那儿。说那是工厂,还不如说是他们的定居点。我去的这家工厂,这个具体的定居点,生产的是驱动DVD拖盘或侧视镜的微型电机。所以,这不是一个非常庞大的工业园区。它看起来更像一个校园,但真的很寒碜,感觉有些破败。毫无美感可言。Q. It wasn’t like Princeton. 问:它和普林斯顿不像。A. No, no. At Princeton, every blade of grass is accounted for. It’s a little creepy. 答:不,不。在普林斯顿,每根草都被解读过。这有点让人起鸡皮疙瘩。Q. That’s a dystopian novel! 问:那才是一部反乌托邦小说!A. Well, dystopias are always about utopias, of course. But this particular place was … it was exactly what I needed for the book I wanted to write. It had a little health center. It had a basketball hoop that was rusty. It had the dining hall. It had the dormitories of course, which housed eight people in one little room, in bunks, with a little hot plate and a plant there. People were trying to make a life out of it, obviously, and choosing to be there. And of course most of the workers were young women. 答:实际上,反乌托邦作品的关键总是乌托邦。但是,这个地方是......正是我想写的这本书所需要的素材。它有一个小型医疗中心。有个锈迹斑斑的篮球架。有食堂。当然还有宿舍,一个小房间住八个人,上下铺,有一些轻便电热炉,还有一株绿植。人们试图在这种状况下过点像样的日子,很明显,他们是自愿待在那里的。当然,大部分工人都是年轻女性。And I was all set to write that novel. I went back to my desk in Princeton and started to write. But I felt as if … and this I’ve got to blame on you guys, journalists who have done such a great job in doing my initial research about all the things that were going on in China. I guess I had always been someone in the last five to seven years who had a lot of interest in China, about all the awesome things that were happening, but also this kind of d about China, about its power, about its environment. All the things that make China special and noticeable.我当时全都准备好了,就要展开写作。我回到普林斯顿的书桌前,开始写小说。但我觉得好像……这得怪你们记者了,为我对中国发生的各种事情做了非常出色的初步调研。我想,在过去五到七年时间里,我一直对中国非常感兴趣,不仅是对中国发生的各种好事,而且也对中国、中国的力量,以及中国的环境怀有一种畏惧。所有这一切让中国显得与众不同,值得注目。So I got back to my desk again and I felt as if I was writing. … You know, the writing was fine. But I think I was writing just basically what you guys [journalists] were writing. I wasn’t adding anything to that story, in my view. I didn’t want to just report on it, because you know, when you’re writing a novel, it’s not just about representation. Of course, when you’re writing a great journalistic piece it’s not just about that either. But the novel, especially as something that needs to be sustained for that many pages, really needs other kinds of angles. You need other kinds of approaches to the material to make it come alive in a way that’s unlikely but is still obviously truthful, and maybe beautiful.所以,我再次回到书桌前,我感觉好像写得……其实写得还行。但我觉得基本上只是在写你们记者写的东西。在我看来,我没有添加任何新东西进去。我不想写出来的只是一个报道,因为,当你写一本小说时,它不仅仅是陈述。当然,当你写一篇出色的新闻文章时,也不能只是进行陈述。但小说,尤其是需要能写很长篇幅的小说,确实需要采用不同类型的角度。你需要不同类型的方法来处理材料,让它看似不可能,但仍然显得很真实,甚至可能还很美妙。I guess I had to admit to myself that that wasn’t happening. For whatever reason. Maybe I just wasn’t imagining the characters right. … You know, I had been so inspired by certain novels like Zola’s “Germinal.” It’s a great novel about coal miners in a town in 19th-century France and their struggles — their battle against the owners and the degradation that they suffered. And I was going to do all that, but I guess I just didn’t have that special, fresh angle on my material. So I put it away, kind of depressed, because I’d done all this work, and I was still excited about it.我想当时我不得不向自己承认,我没有做到这一点。无论原因是什么。也许我只是没有想象出恰当的角色。......你知道,某些小说一直给了我很大的启发,比如左拉(Zola)的名著《萌芽》(Germinal),讲的是19世纪法国一个镇上的煤矿工人以及他们的斗争——他们和矿主做斗争,和他们所处的恶化境况做斗争。我想要写这样一本小说,但我觉得自己还没有找到一个特殊、新鲜的视角来处理素材。所以我停下来,感觉有点郁闷,因为我已经做了这么多工作,不过我还是对这件事劲头十足。That’s when I took this train ride from New York to D.C. For those of you who have not been on that train — it’s the regular train that goes every day, many times a day. Because I’d grown up in the New York area, I’d been on that train for probably 45 years of my life, going back and forth periodically. And for 45 years, I’d always seen, as you roll into Baltimore Penn Station, the east side of Baltimore that’s always been, as I can remember since I was a little kid, a neighborhood that’s forlorn. A classic American ghetto. The reasons for it are myriad and very complicated. Race, racism, economic decline, post-industrial stuff, all that kind of stuff. Anyway, that’s the kind of neighborhood it was.这时候,我乘火车从纽约前往华盛顿特区,可能你没有坐过那班火车——它是普通列车,每天都会发很多班。我是在纽约地区长大的,所以我坐那班火车可能有45年了,过段时间就往返一次。这45年来,每次进入巴尔的宾州车站,我都会看到巴尔的东侧那片社区。我记得,从我孩提时代开始,那就一直是个绝望孤独的社区。那是个典型的美国贫民窟,形成的原因有很多,非常复杂。族裔、种族主义、经济衰退、后工业化问题,如此种种。无论如何,那个社区就是那样的。I was looking at this neighborhood, and not thinking at all of writing about it, and I just got angry and frustrated as a citizen. I said, I can’t believe I’ve been seeing this neighborhood for probably four decades in various states of neglect, disrepair, maybe hope, a little bit. The current iteration that I saw was that it was all boarded up, these very modest 2oth-century modest row houses. They’d be just boarded up with plywood so that the street was completely cleared of anything, so that no one was supposed to live there anymore. It was absolutely cleared out of people. It was like a neutron bomb went off. The buildings were still standing, but the people were all gone.我看着这个社区,完全没有要写它的念头,我只是从公民的角度感到很生气,很失望。我说,我简直不敢相信,在大约40年的时间里,我看着这片社区总体上就处在无人理睬、破败失修,也许还有一丝丝希望的状态。当时我看到的最新状况是,所有房子都用木板封起来了,它们是20世纪那种不起眼的排式房屋。它们被胶合板封起来,这样街上就彻底没有了任何东西,所以应该是没人住在那里了。绝对空无一人。就好像一颗中子弹爆炸过,建筑物仍然矗立,但人都不在了。And I thought to myself — what a waste! We need so much affordable housing in our cities, and in Baltimore especially. I thought, why don’t we just invite an environmentally ruined village in China over? People can’t live there. Fifty thousand people — bring them over here, let them have it. Right? Let’s see what they do with it! They’ve got to do something good with it. Who knows what they’ll do?我心想——这太浪费了!我们的城市需要大量廉价住房,尤其是巴尔的。我想,何不去中国找一个环境被毁坏殆尽的乡村,请那里的人到这里来住呢?在那里是没法生活的。5万人——请他们过来,给他们住。看看他们会怎么对待这些!他们肯定会带来一些好的东西。谁知道他们能做出什么事来?And I kept sort of tossing that idea about, and I said, gee, that would be kind of a fun idea. Kind of an immigration story en masse. You know, usually an immigration story is like, my family, this community. But to bring everyone over at once in an engineered way, with a real purpose, a mission to revitalize. And I said of course that’s not going to work. No one’s going to allow that, even if people needed it.这个想法我一直在琢磨着,我心想,嘿,这倒是个挺好玩的点子。有点移民众生相的意思。你知道一个移民故事通常就是讲我的家庭之类,这个社区的事。但这是奔着一个切实的目标,一种复兴的使命,有计划地把所有人一次性搬迁过来。我心想那当然是不可能实现的。就算人真的有这个需求,也不可能得到许可。But then I just kept rolling about the idea, and I thought, well maybe in the future, in a very different future, America might need a certain kind of assistance, a certain kind of revitalization. Maybe all these forlorn urban areas — in 100 years, 200 years, that’s still a problem, still something that needs to be addressed, and maybe that would happen. So I said, O.K., I’ll set the book in the future. But of course once you do that, you have to talk about the rest of the future, the rest of the context. So that’s how this book happened.但想法在我脑子里还是一直转着,我想,也许在未来,一个跟现在很不一样的未来里,美国会需要某种特定的协助,某种振兴。这些荒凉的城区——未来100、200年里,也许仍然是个问题,仍然需要去面对,那么到时也许就能实现这个想法。于是我就说,好吧,我把这本书设定在未来。但当然,一旦你要这么做,未来的其余部分,语境的其余部分,你也得说说。这本书就是这么来的。I still took a lot of the research that I did on my Shenzhen trip. Not the details of that visit, but I guess the feeling, the ethos of those workers, the sense of community that they had. And really, this novel started out as a novel about community, but a certain kind of community. But then it became larger.在深圳的那次调研至今还是能带给我很多东西。我想重要的不是那段经历的细节,而是感受,那些工人的气质,那种拥有一个社区的感觉。实际上,这部小说在一开始就是一部讲社区的小说,只不过是某种特定的社区。然后才开始扩展开来。[During the question-and-answer session, a young man asked Mr. Lee about his understanding of Chinese culture, citing a scene in “On Such a Full Sea.” There is a plot spoiler here for those who have not yet the novel.][在问答环节,一个年轻人援引了《在如此完满的大海上》中的一个片段,请李昌来谈谈对中国文化的理解。这里有对书中情节的透露,望尚未阅读这部小说的读者知悉。]Q. When I was ing the book, there was a point for me when the story really turned and I became invested. And that was when the Joseph character, the boy, drowns and then there’s the funeral scene, because that just rang so true for me in my experience of Chinese funerals. It got me really curious how much of, is it a question of how much you really know about Chinese culture or is it like overlap with your understanding of Korean culture? What is it about Chinese culture that stands out from Korean culture or American culture, that’s distinctive for you? What is something inherent besides the obvious differences? 问:在看这本书的时候,对我来说有一个转折点,让我开始投入进去了。就是那个叫约瑟夫的男孩溺死后的葬礼,因为它显得很真实,唤起了我自己参加中式葬礼的经历。这让我很想知道,你对中国文化实际上有多少了解,或者说这种文化是不是跟你对韩国文化的理解有重合?对你来说,中国文化跟韩国文化或美国文化相比,有什么格外不一样的地方?除了那些明显的差异以外,它们有什么内在的不同点?A. I don’t know that there is. There is a little bit that it just bleeds over from Korean funerals, I suppose. I’d seen Chinese ones on film. [laughs] I think my editor was like, oh, you’re really going into all this business about … Why are you going into this scene? I had a hard time explaining it to her. Because I felt like that scene — and I’m really glad you brought it up — that scene, it was important to me because it’s when the community comes together and really taps into a feeling. It’s the first time that Fan really notices that and feels like there’s been a real bonding, even with all these disparate people that don’t really care about each other. That this one moment is sort of crystallizing a feeling.答:我不知道。我认为,有些地方和韩式葬礼类似。我通过电影看过中式葬礼。[笑] 我觉得我编辑的反应是这样的,哦,你真的要深入到所有这些东西里去……你为什么要写这一幕?我艰难地就此对她作了解释。因为我感觉那一幕——我真的很高兴你提了出来——那一幕,它之所以对我很重要,是因为整个社区在此刻团结在了一起,而且它真实地挖掘了一种感受。这是范第一次真正注意到这一点,而且感觉人们之间存在一种真实的联系,即使是与这些各不相同并且对彼此漠不关心的人。这一刻在某种程度上使一种感觉变得清清楚楚。And part of my anxiety about this community that I was writing about was that they’d gotten a little bit soft, a little bit comfortable, a little bit in some ways detached from one another, because the bonds of their community were so structurally sound and structurally kind of prescribed, that they’d forgotten about them. When everyone’s a cousin, everyone’s a cousin. No one’s like, right there. And so that was something that I felt that she would see or feel. And not just her — the “we.” They begin to feel something, that there’s this final burst, for the first time in a long time, this rush, this drug of feeling. And I guess that’s why that scene exists.对于我所书写的这个社区,我的一部分焦虑原因就是人们会变得有些软弱、有些舒适,在某些方面有些彼此疏远了,因为他们社区的联系在结构上如此牢固,而且结构上早就固定下来,所以他们会忘掉这些。如果所有人都是亲戚,也就没什么感觉了。好像没人在那里。所以,那就是我觉得她会看到或感受到的东西。而且不仅是她——是“我们”。他们开始感受到了一些东西,于是后来出现这个最后时刻的迸发,这是长期以来第一次,这种强烈的感觉,这种炽烈的感情。我认为这就是那一幕存在的原因。 /201503/366242

BERLIN — A week at the American Academy in Berlin leaves me with two contradictory feelings: one is that Germany today deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and the other is that Germany tomorrow will have to overcome its deeply ingrained post-World War II pacifism and become a more serious, activist global power. And I say both as a compliment.柏林——在柏林美国学院(American Academy)度过的一周,给我留下两个相互矛盾的感受:一是今天的德国理应得到一座诺贝尔和平奖,二是明天的德国必须摒弃二战以来根深蒂固的和平主义,成为一股更威严、更主动的全球力量。两者都是一种赞誉。On the first point, what the Germans have done in converting almost 30 percent of their electric grid to solar and wind energy from near zero in about 15 years has been a great contribution to the stability of our planet and its climate. The centerpiece of the German Energiewende, or energy transformation, was an extremely generous “feed-in tariff” that made it a no-brainer for Germans to install solar power (or wind) at home and receive a predictable high price for the energy generated off their own rooftops.关于第一点,德国人已经把电网中将近三成的电力来源转换成太阳能和风能,大概15年前这个比例接近零,这对我们这个星球和气候的稳定性是有重大意义的。德国的Energiewende(能源转型)的核心是“上网电价补贴”(feed-in tariff),该政策给出的条件极为优厚,让德国人毫不犹豫地开始在家中安装太阳能(或风能),而且自家屋顶产生的能源能够卖出可预见的高价。There is no denying that the early days of the feed-in tariff were expensive. The subsidies cost billions of euros, paid for through a surcharge on everyone’s electric bill. But the goal was not simply to buy more renewable energy: It was to create demand that would drive down the cost of solar and wind to make them mainstream, affordable options. And, in that, Energiewende has been an undiluted success. With price drops of more than 80 percent for solar, and 55 percent for wind, zero-carbon energy is now competitive with fossil fuels here.不可否认的是,上网电价补贴在初期代价会非常大。数十亿欧元的补贴,是通过增收所有人的电费来付的。但这样做的目的不只是购买更多可再生能源:它要创造需求,以压低太阳能和风能的成本,把它们变成主流的、廉价的能源选项。在这一点上,Energiewende获得了无可争议的成功。太阳能电价降幅超80%,风能降幅55%,现在零排放能源跟化石燃料比是有竞争力的。“In my view the greatest success of the German energy transition was giving a boost to the Chinese solar panel industry,” said Ralf Fücks, the president of the Heinrich-B#246;ll-Stiftung, the German Green Party’s political foundation. “We created the mass market, and that led to the increased productivity and dramatic decrease in cost.” And all this in a country whose northern tip is the same latitude as the southern tip of Alaska!“在我看来,德国能源转型的最大成功在于促进了中国太阳能产业的发展,”德国绿党(Green Party)下属政治基金会海因里希·伯尔(Heinrich-B#246;ll-Stiftung)的会长阿尔夫·富克斯(Ralf Fücks)说。“我们在这一领域创造了大众市场,从而提高生产效率,大幅压低成本。”这一切,都是由一个国土北端跟阿拉斯加南端在同一纬度上的国家实现的!This is a world-saving achievement. And, happily, as the price fell, the subsidies for new installations also dropped. The Germans who installed solar ended up making money, which is why the program remains popular, except in coal-producing regions. Today, more than 1.4 million German households and cooperatives are generating their own solar/wind electricity. “There are now a thousand energy cooperatives operated by private people,” said the energy economist Claudia Kemfert.这是一项拯救世界的成就。而且令人欣喜的是,随着价格的下降,对新装用户的补贴也下降了。安装了太阳能板的德国人最终是赚钱的,这就是为什么该项目始终很受欢迎,只有产煤区例外。目前德国有140多万户家庭和协作组织在使用自己的太阳能/风能电力。“现在有上千个私立能源协作组织在运行,”能源经济学家克劳迪娅·肯福尔特(Claudia Kemfert)说。Oliver Krischer, the vice chairman of the Green Party’s parliamentary group, told me: “I have a friend who comes home, and, if the sun is shining, he doesn’t even say hello to his wife. He first goes downstairs and looks at the meter to see what [electricity] he has produced himself. ... The idea now is that energy is something you can [produce] on your own. It’s a new development.” And it has created so much pushback against the country’s four major coal/nuclear utilities that one of them, E.On, just split into two companies — one focusing on squeezing the last profits from coal, oil, gas and nuclear, while the other focuses on renewables. Germans jokingly call them “E.Off” and “E.On.”绿党议会党团副主席奥列佛·科舍尔(Oliver Krischer)告诉我:“我有个朋友,在有太阳的日子,到家都顾不上跟妻子打招呼,会径直到楼下去查电表,看看自己发了多少[电]。现在有了能源可以自己来[生产]的观念。这是个进展。”该国的四大煤电/核电公司受到极大冲击,以至于其中意昂集团(E.On)分拆成了两个公司——一个专注于榨取煤炭、石油、天然气和核能最后的一点利润,另一个专注可再生能源。德国人开玩笑说它们分别叫“E.Off”和“E.On”。One problem: Germany still has tons of cheap, dirty lignite coal that is used as backup power for wind and solar, because cleaner natural gas is more expensive and nuclear is being phased out.这里有一个问题:德国仍然有大量廉价、肮脏的褐煤,用来作为风能和太阳能的后备,因为更清洁的天然气要更贵,而核能正被逐步淘汰。So if that’s the story on renewable power, how about national power? Two generations after World War II, Germany’s reticence to project any power outside its borders is deeply ingrained in the political psyche here. That is a good thing, given Germany’s past. But it is not sustainable. There is an impressive weight to Germany today — derived from the quality of its governing institution, its rule of law, and the sheer power of its economy built on midsize businesses — that is unique in Europe.可再生电力是这样,那么国家势力的情况如何呢?经过二战后两代人的发展,不愿意将自己的力量伸展到国境之外的心态,已在德国政治中深深扎根。考虑到历史,这是好事。但这是不可持续的。以当今德国的地位之重要,在欧洲绝无仅有——这是源于它在行政制度、法治方面的高水准,以及基于中型企业的强势经济。When you talk to German officials about Greece, their main complaint is not about Greek fiscal policy, which is better lately, but about the rot and corruption in Greece’s governing institutions. The Greeks “couldn’t implement the structural reforms they needed if they wanted to,” one German financial official said to me. Athens’s institutions are a mess.当你跟德国官员谈起希腊时,他们的主要不满不是希腊的财政政策——这方面近来已经好转了——而是它的政府机构的腐败。一位德国财政官员跟我说,希腊人“无法实施结构性改革,有这个意愿也做不到。”希腊的政府部门一团糟。With America less interested in Europe, Britain fading away both from the European Union and the last vestiges of it being a global military power, France and Italy economically hobbled and most NATO members shrinking their defense budgets, I don’t see how Germany avoids exercising more leadership. Its economic sanctions are aly the most important counter to Russian aggression in Ukraine. And in the Mediterranean Sea, where Europe now faces a rising tide of refugees (and where Russia and China just announced that their navies will hold a joint exercise in mid-May), Germany will have to catalyze some kind of E.U. naval response.美国对欧洲的兴趣在减少,英国正淡出欧盟,而最后仅存的那点作为全球性军事力量的身份,也将荡然无存,法国和意大利的经济不振,大多数北约(NATO)国家都在缩减国防预算,德国发挥更多领导作用,在我看来是不可避免的。它对俄罗斯的经济制裁,目前是对抗该国对乌克兰的进犯的最重要手段。此外在地中海,欧洲要面对一股越来越汹涌的难民潮(而俄罗斯和中国刚宣布,两国海军五月中旬会在那里举行联合军事演习),德国别无选择,只能力主欧盟海上力量进行某种回应。The relative weight of German power vis-à-vis the rest of Europe just keeps growing, but don’t say that out loud here. A German foreign policy official put their dilemma this way: “We have to get used to assuming more leadership and be aware of how reluctant others are to have Germany lead — so we have to do it through the E.U.”德国跟其他欧洲国家在影响力上的差距还会进一步拉大,但话不能说太直白。一位德国外交政策官员表达了他们的两难境地:“我们要做好担负更多领导角色的准备,并且要清楚,其他国家有多不情愿让德国来带头——所以我们必须通过欧盟行事。”Here’s my prediction: Germany will be Europe’s first green, solar-powered superpower. Can those attributes coexist in one country, you ask? They’re going to have to.我的预测:德国会是欧洲第一个绿色的、由太阳能驱动的超级大国。你也许会问,一个国家能同时具备这几个属性吗?他们别无选择。 /201505/374189

Since imperial times, China has permitted its citizens to file official complaints. But the State Bureau for Letters and Calls that governs the system is again warning petitioners to respect its protocol, or expect their petition to be ignored. 中国自帝王时代就允许国民上访。不过,管理上访制度的国家信访局再次告诫信访人遵守该局的程序,否则他们的信访事项将不被受理。In its newest body of regulations, the bureau said this week that anyone with a complaint should pursue it close to home and preferably in writing. The regulations take aim at efforts by many protesters to cut red tape and pursue their bureaucratic, legal and financial grievances in Beijing, where they hope to get a fair hearing -- despite a low rate of success. The rules state that petitions that arrive from outside the channels will not be accepted. 国家信访局在本周公布的规定中称,信访人应当向依法有权处理的本级或上一级机关提出信访事项,同时应采用书面或走访形式。该规定针对的是很多试图简化手续,就官僚、法律和经济方面的冤情到北京上访的信访人。虽然成功率很低,但信访人仍希望能在北京讨回公道。新规称,来自其他渠道的信访事项将不被受理。The bureau#39;s new rules include instruction to government departments to close cases where they are the target of a complaint within 60 days -- if they accept the case -- and to not extend that period more than 30 days. The state bureau said a complainant unhappy with the initial decision can appeal one step up the bureaucratic ladder within 30 days. 国家信访局的新规还要求,有权处理机关在受理信访事项后要在60天内办理相关事项,如需延期办理,延期时间也不要超过30天。国家信访局还称,对信访事项处理意见不的信访人可以在30天内向上级机关提出复查请求。 The changes are the latest to a system that everyone -- from government officials to police to petitioners -- says needs fixing. The central government has repeatedly introduced laws and technology in ways that petitioners and rights groups say suppress complaints to the capital. The suppression is at times backed up by brute force typically attributed to authorities where the complaints originally initiated. But petitioners who claim to have been wronged by corrupt officials, unfair courts and cruel employers and can#39;t get redress at home continue to flood to the letter bureau#39;s Beijing offices and to supreme court and prosecutor#39;s offices and other ministries. 目前,从政府官员、警察到上访者,所有人都认为中国现行的信访制度需要调整,而国家信访局公布上述条例正是对信访制度的最新调整。对于中央以各种方式多次颁布的法规和推出的技术手段,上访者和维权团体认为这都是为了压制上访者到北京上访。这种压制有时会借助暴力手段,而实施暴力的一般都是上访者原籍的当地政府部门。但声称受到腐败官员、不公正法院和残忍雇主迫害且冤屈不能在家乡得到伸张的上访者还在继续涌向北京的信访部门、最高法院、检察院和其他政府部门。Petitioners include people like Zhou Li, a former policeman from the northern city Shijiazhuang who has petitioned for redress since 2002 for what he says was his wrongful murder conviction in the 1980s. Mr. Zhou said by telephone on Thursday that he was railroaded, spending 14 years in prison following an accident involving the police car he was driving that left dead the son of a local government official. 来自石家庄的上访者周立(音)曾经是一名警察。他从2002年开始上访。周立说,上访的原因是自己在上世纪80年代被错误地判定为谋杀罪。周四他在电话中说,自己被冤入狱14年,只是因为他驾驶的警车发生了一起事故导致当地一位政府官员的儿子身亡。In response to the latest rules, Mr. Zhou said it is unrealistic to expect decisions within 60 days, in particular in criminal cases like his. 对于国家信访局最新公布的条例,周立表示,在60天内得到答复不切实际,特别是像他这样的刑事案件。He said any efforts to enforce the latest regulation will make some petitioners #39;go to extremes.#39; He added, #39;If you have top-down policies, local people always find a way around them.#39; 他说,任何执行这些最新条例的举动都将迫使一些上访者“走极端”。他还说,上有政策,下有对策。In the latest exposé of the lengths authorities sometimes go to block petitioners from reaching Beijing, the Chinese investigative magazine Caixin on Thursday published a lengthy story in English that detailed how some would-be protesters were allegedly stopped on their way to Beijing and held in a village house that the publication called a #39; black jail.#39; 最近的相关报道显示,有关部门有时会阻拦上访者去北京上访,中国杂志财新《新世纪》周四刊登了一篇文章,详述了一些打算上访的人是如何在去北京的路上被截访和被关押在一个“黑监狱”里的。Chinese government officials, including a representative of the letters bureau, affirmed citizens#39; right to petition and the illegality of black jails late last year in a review before the ed Nations Human Rights Council: #39;China is committed to keeping the channel open for people to express grievances and make complaints. It prohibits restriction of normal acts of petition in any forms, and would never allow suppression of petitioners or establishment of any forms of #39;black jails,#39;#39; it said. 包括信访局一名代表在内的中国政府官员去年底在向联合国人权理事会(ed Nations Human Rights Council)做的报告中重申,中国公民有上访权利,将上访者关入黑监狱是不合法的。报告称,中国致力于使人民表达不满和进行抱怨的渠道保持开放,禁止以任何形式限制正常的上访活动,并且永远不会允许镇压上访者或者建立任何形式的黑监狱。Reminders by Chinese authorities that complaints must be handled within existing bureaucratic strictures aren#39;t new. 这并不是中国有关部门首次提醒不要越级上访。In August 2009, the Communist Party#39;s Political and Legislative Affairs Committee warned petitioners to #39;not seek solutions by visiting Beijing#39; and instead instructed them to seek redress though legal channels locally. 2009年8月份,中共中央政法委员会曾警告上访者称,不得透过上访北京来谋求解决问题,而应该依靠基层解决问题,坚持靠法制解决问题。That announcement, the committee said, was designed to ensure a #39;harmonious#39; celebration of the sixtieth anniversary of the Communist Party rule in October 2009. The latest announcement comes six weeks before the 25th anniversary of the 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square. 该委员会称,这一声明旨在确保新中国成立60周年(2009年10月份)庆祝活动拥有和谐稳定的社会环境。James T. Areddy / Fanfan Wang James T. Areddy / Fanfan Wang /201404/291940

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